Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
DJ Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
DJ 波音公司和空客股票被降級。分析師說，不要指望快速疫苗。-Barrons.com
By Al Root
由鋁根
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned downgraded Boeing and Airbus, the only two makers of large jets, because a solution to the Covid-19 pandemic isn't coming soon enough.
伯恩斯坦分析師道格拉斯·哈尼德（Douglas Harned）降級了波音和空中客車，這是唯一的兩家大型飛機製造商，因為解決 Covid-19 大流行的解決方案還不夠快。
"We have seen potential for a recovery from Covid-19 as dependent on a medical solution to bring global travel levels back to normal," wrote Harned in a Friday research report. "Based on our assessment of the traffic outlook, combined with analyses by Bernstein's health care team, we believe the solution is farther out."
Harned 在星期五的研究報告中寫道：「我們已經看到從 Covid-19 恢復的潛力取決於醫療解決方案來使全球旅行水平恢復正常。」「根據我們對交通前景的評估，再加上伯恩斯坦醫療團隊的分析，我們相信解決方案更遠。」
His ratings on both stocks went from the equivalent of Buy to Hold. His Boeing (ticker: BA) stock-price target went from $180 to $165, while he cut his call on Airbus (AIR.France) from about EUR73 ($80) to EUR69.
他對兩隻股票的評級都從買入到持有的等價物。他的波音公司（股票代碼：BA）的股票價格目標從 180 美元增至 165 美元，而他將對空中客車（法國空中客車）的呼籲從約 EUR73（80 美元）減至 EUR69。
It's a downbeat take. Aerospace investors had been feeling more optimistic lately. Boeing shares, for instance, are up more than 20% over the past month.
這是一個低落的採取。航空航天投資者最近感到更樂觀。例如，波音公司股票在過去一個月上漲了 20％ 以上。
More people on planes is one reason for increased optimism. Air travel in the U.S. over the past seven days is down about 80% year over year. A month ago, the comparable decline was about 90%. It isn't a huge improvement, but Wall Street likes to focus on the rate of change.
更多的飛機上的人是增加樂觀情緒的原因之一。在過去七天中，美國的航空旅行比去年同期下降了約 80％。一個月前，可比下降幅度約為 90％。這不是一個巨大的改進，但華爾街喜歡專注於變化的速度。
A viable coronavirus vaccine, potentially bringing back air travel faster than currently projected, has always been seen as a big deal for airlines and jet manufacturers. Yet Harned took a cautious stand on that.
對於航空公司和噴氣式飛機製造商來說，一種可行的冠狀病毒疫苗可能比目前預期的更快地恢復空中旅行，一直被視為一件大事。然而，哈尼德對此採取了謹慎的立場。
"While progress continues on vaccines, we do not expect this to be the complete solution," wrote the analyst. "There are many vaccines in development and we are confident that successful ones will emerge in 2021. But, it is not yet known what the efficacy of the early vaccines will be or how broad a portion of the global flying population will be vaccinated over time."
分析師寫道：「儘管疫苗的進展仍在繼續，但我們不希望這是完整的解決方案。」「有許多疫苗正在開發中，我們相信成功的疫苗將在 2021 年出現。但是，目前尚不清楚早期疫苗的功效將是什麼，或者隨著時間的推移，全球飛行人口的一部分接種疫苗將有多大。」
In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine developed soon, Harned predicts air travel would return to 2019 levels by 2023. That means airlines will require fewer deliveries from jet makers to meet reduced demand.
在沒有即將開發的安全有效疫苗的情況下，哈萊德預測到 2023 年，航空旅行將恢復到 2019 年的水平。這意味著航空公司將需要更少的噴氣製造商交付，以滿足減少的需求。
As the number of reported Covid-19 infections in the U.S. has increased in recent days, some of the juice has come out of the commercial aerospace sector. Boeing stock is down about 9% over the past week. Airline shares have fallen about 10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are off by 1.3% and 1% over the same span, respectively.
隨著最近幾天，美國報告的 Covid-19 感染數量有所增加，商業航空航天領域的一些果汁已經出現。在過去的一周中，波音股票下跌了約 9％。航空公司股票下降了約 10％。道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普 500 指數在同一時間段內分別下跌 1.3% 和 1%。
Even though stocks have bounced back from their March lows, commercial aerospace has been devastated by the pandemic. Boeing and Airbus stocks remain down about 46% and 57% year to date, respectively. The aerospace supplier stocks Barron's tracks are down about 40% on average. And airline shares are down roughly 48%. The declines have wiped out hundreds of billions of market value.
儘管股票已經從 3 月的低點反彈，但商業航空航天也遭到了大流行的破壞。波音和空中客車股票迄今為止仍然下跌約 46％ 和 57％。航空航天供應商股票巴倫的軌道平均下降了約 40％。航空公司的股票大約下降了 48％。下跌已經消滅了數百億的市場價值。
The battle airlines are waging with the virus is far from over. In fact, Italy is banning carry-on luggage, in a move reported on by the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera Thursday. The Italian National Civil Aviation Authority will ban the use of overhead bins for health reasons starting Friday.
戰鬥航空公司正在與病毒發動遠遠沒有結束。實際上，意大利正在禁止隨身攜帶的行李，這是意大利報紙 Corriere 德拉塞拉星期四報導的一次舉動。意大利國家民航局將從週五開始禁止出於健康原因使用頭頂垃圾箱。
If other countries do the same, it would be another potential headwind for airline stocks. Checking bags adds time and irritation for travelers, and U.S. airlines also generate billions of dollars from checked-baggage fees. A requirement to check bags might make it tougher to collect that revenue.
如果其他國家也這樣做，這將是航空公司股票的另一個潛在不利因素。託運行李會增加旅客的時間和刺激性，而美國航空公司也從托運行李費中產生數十億美元。託運行李的要求可能會使收取收入變得更加困難。
Italy was hit hard by the pandemic in March and April. More recently, the number of new cases diagnosed daily in Italy is in the hundreds, down from thousands. About 240,000 Italian cases have been reported and more than 34,000 people have died in the country. Globally, reported cases are approaching 10 million and deaths are nearing 500,000.
意大利在三月和四月受到大流行的打擊。最近，意大利每天診斷出的新病例數量為數百個，從數千人減少。據報導約 24 萬宗意大利病例，該國有超過 34,000 人死亡。在全球範圍內，報告的病例接近 1000 萬人，死亡人數接近 50 萬人。
The U.S. reported more than 39,000 new infections Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's close to a new daily high. Testing is up, but positive results have averaged 6.1% of the total over the past week, up from about 5.4% a month ago.
根據 Covid 跟踪項目，美國週四報告了超過 39,000 例新感染。這接近新的每日最高點。測試上升，但陽性結果在過去一周內平均佔總數的 6.1％，較一個月前的約 5.4％ 有所增加。
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
寫信給阿爾根在 allen.root@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完) 道瓊斯通訊社
June 26, 2020 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)
2020 年 6 月 26 日（格林威治標準時間 13:49）
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