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Disney Is Particularly Cheap Right Now

Disney Is Particularly Cheap Right Now

迪士尼現在特別便宜
TheStreet ·  2020/06/01 16:27

Disney( DIS ) - Get Reportcontinues to trade at a discount as investors remain on the sidelines unsure of exactly when the company returns to full operation. Amidst investor’s uncertainty and trepidation, Disney+ continues to smash all expectations. Meanwhile, investors are still not willing to pay as large a multiple for Disney as they were in 2019. What Lies Ahead For Disney's Parks and Resorts?

迪士尼(離岸)-Get Report繼續折價交易,因為投資者仍在場邊觀望,不確定公司到底何時恢復全面運營。在投資者的不確定和不安中,迪士尼+繼續打破所有預期。與此同時,投資者仍不願為迪士尼支付像2019年那樣高的市盈率。迪士尼樂園和度假區的未來是什麼?

There’s no question that there’s more optimism in companies right now than there has been over the past couple of months.

毫無疑問,現在的公司比過去幾個月更加樂觀。

Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight buying at the lows of March would have been a terrific opportunity. But investors can’t invest in hindsight. Right now, looking ahead, it’s still not too late to invest in Disney.

事實上,由於事後諸葛亮,在3月低點買入將是一個絕佳的機會。但投資者不能事後投資。現在,展望未來,投資迪士尼還不算太晚。

The biggest advantage of investing in Disney right now compared to say, six months ago, is that not only is the share price still down more than 20% from its highs, but its underlying operations will come out stronger over the coming year.

與六個月前相比,現在投資迪士尼的最大優勢是,不僅股價仍比高點下跌了20%以上,而且其基礎業務在未來一年將變得更加強勁。

Here’s the detail that matters. Disney has Parks and Resorts, which are highly profitable and critical to the core of its cash flow. Separately, Disney+ provides Disney with a strong revenue growth opportunity. Hence, I contend these two units are the key drivers of this thesis. Let’s take a closer look them. Parks and Resorts

以下是重要的細節。迪士尼擁有公園和度假村,它們利潤豐厚,對其現金流的核心至關重要。另外,迪士尼+為迪士尼提供了強勁的收入增長機會。因此,我認為這兩個單元是本論文的關鍵驅動因素。讓我們仔細看看他們。公園和度假村

Investors are uncertain about just how deep Disney’s cash burn on its Parks and Resorts business will have been until the moment they reopen at full capacity.

投資者不確定迪士尼在其公園和度假村業務上的現金消耗到底會有多深,直到它們全面重新開業。

Remember, Disney’s Parks and Resort business is responsible for bringing in huge sums of cash to its business. Specifically, for its latest figures, up until March 2020,includingthe period when many of its theme parks and resorts were closed, this segment had operating income profits of $639 million.

請記住,迪士尼的公園和度假區業務為其業務帶來了鉅額現金。具體地説,根據其最新數據,截至2020年3月,包括其許多主題公園和度假村關閉期間在內,該部門的運營收入利潤為6.39億美元。

However, in order to give a sense of just how profitable this segment is, we can dissect last year’s profits.

然而,為了讓我們瞭解這一細分市場的盈利情況,我們可以分析一下去年的利潤。

Here, we can see that Disney’s Parks and Resorts reached close to 40% of its operating income. This gives an insight into just how important Disney’s Parks and Resorts are, while noting that many of its Parks and Resorts have been closed throughout Q3 2020 (quarter ending June). Consequently, investors are unsure of just how deep the cash burn will have been throughout this period.

在這裏,我們可以看到迪士尼樂園和度假村達到了運營收入的近40%。這讓我們得以洞察迪士尼公園和度假區的重要性,同時指出,迪士尼的許多公園和度假區在2020年第三季度(截至6月的季度)都已關閉。因此,投資者不確定這段時間的現金消耗到底會有多深。

On the other hand, Disney is starting to reopen in many of its theme parks over the coming few weeks, with Disney World set to reopen on the July 11 at 50% capacity.

另一方面,迪士尼的許多主題公園將在未來幾周內重新開放,迪士尼世界將於7月11日重新開放,客流量將達到50%。

While there is trepidation that consumers will be fearful of returning to crowded places any time soon, Chairman Bob Iger argues that spending time in parks with your loved ones will be missed and consumers will return. Thus, although there’s uncertainty over its Parks and Resorts, the icing on the cake comes from Disney+. Disney+ Jumps Full Steam Ahead

雖然有人擔心消費者會害怕很快回到擁擠的地方,但董事長鮑勃·伊格爾認為,與你所愛的人在公園裏度過的時間將被錯過,消費者將會回來。因此,儘管迪士尼的公園和度假村存在不確定性,但錦上添花的是迪士尼+。迪士尼+全速前進

Streaming wars continue to pick up momentum, and it's unknown whether the ultimate fall-out will be a duopoly with Netflix( NFLX ) - Get Reportand Disney+, an oligopoly with Netflix, Disney+, Apple TV+( AAPL ) - Get Report, and Amazon Video( AMZN ) - Get Report, or whether the market will become increasingly fragmented with smaller players such as HBO Max from AT&T's( T ) - Get ReportWarnerMedia and Peacock from Comcast's( CMCSA ) - Get ReportNBCUniversal.

流媒體大戰的勢頭繼續升温,目前尚不清楚最終的後果是否會是雙頭壟斷網飛(NFLX)-獲取報告和迪士尼+,Netflix,Disney+的寡頭壟斷,蘋果TV+(AAPL)-獲取報告,並亞馬遜視頻(AMZN)-獲得報告,或者市場是否會變得越來越分散,規模較小的參與者,如AT&T‘s的HBO Max(T.N:行情),是否會變得更加分散. T )-從康卡斯特(Comcast)的(CMCSA)-獲取ReportNBC Universal。

What we do know is according to the most recently reported figures last month, Disney+ has 54.5 million subscribers. This not only puts it far ahead of its own projections of 60 million to 90 million by 2024, but vindicates the power of its brand. But Is The Stock Cheap?

我們所知道的是,根據上個月最新報道的數據,迪士尼+擁有5450萬訂户。這不僅使其遠遠超過其自己預測的到2024年達到6000萬至9000萬的目標,還證明瞭其品牌的力量。但這隻股票便宜嗎?

During 2020 and into early 2021, Disney will not be operating at full potential. That’s a given and has been priced in already. However, once a vaccine is hopefully out, one can reasonably expect, as Iger argues, that consumers will return to things they miss most -- such as visiting theme parks and resorts.

在2020年至2021年初,迪士尼將不會充分發揮潛力。這是既定的,而且已經計入了價格。然而,一旦疫苗有望問世,人們可以合理地預期,正如艾格所説,消費者將回到他們最沒有預期的事情上--比如參觀主題公園和度假村。

It’s entirely likely that by this time next year, Disney will be well on its way towards being fully operational. How long until Disney is making close to $8 billion of free cash flow is the main question.

到明年這個時候,迪士尼完全有可能在全面運營的路上走上正軌。迪士尼多久才能實現近80億美元的自由現金流是主要問題。

However, we can hope that over the next twelve months its parks are likely to be operating at close to full capacity, and Disney will also have its streaming platform with new content and a much bigger subscriber base.

然而,我們可以希望,在接下來的12個月裏,迪士尼的樂園可能會接近滿負荷運營,迪士尼也將擁有擁有新內容和更大訂户基礎的流媒體平臺。

All these taken together, as well as the fact that the market is forward-looking, makes paying just 2.7x times its trailing sales a bargain opportunity. Particularly when we consider that investors were paying 3.5 times sales in 2019 before investors knew whether or not Disney+ would be the huge success it has turned out to be. The Bottom Line

所有這些加在一起,再加上市場具有前瞻性的事實,使得支付僅為往績銷售額2.7倍的價格成為一個便宜貨機會。特別是考慮到投資者在2019年支付的價格是銷售額的3.5倍,投資者還不知道迪士尼+是否會像事實證明的那樣取得巨大成功。底線

Disney’s films are little more than a funnel into its huge ecosystem, where it brings consumers to either its parks and resorts for an immersive pleasure or Disney+ to experience the best of Disney in one’s living room. Of course, that’s for the family. As for the shareholder, they can still do all that while profiting from this investment.

迪士尼的電影只不過是其龐大生態系統的一個漏斗,它把消費者帶到公園和度假村享受身臨其境的樂趣,或者把迪士尼+帶到客廳裏體驗迪士尼最好的東西。當然,這是為了這個家庭。至於股東,他們仍然可以在從這筆投資中獲利的同時做到這一切。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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