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John Rogers' Ariel Fund 1st-Quarter Commentary

John Rogers' Ariel Fund 1st-Quarter Commentary

約翰·羅傑斯的阿里爾基金第一季度評論
gurufocus ·  2020/04/14 00:00

Markets worldwide began 2020 on a high note, underscored by broad optimism around an improving global economic outlook and a phase 1 trade deal between the U.S. and China. However, in a swift and sudden reversal, the coronavirus pandemic unleashed massive economic shocks as governments across the globe enacted strict containment policies, which shuttered businesses, halted commerce and imposed “social-distancing” measures confining regional populations to their homes. Uncertainty over the duration of the virus threat and magnitude of its impact prompted policymakers and central banks in the world’s largest economies to deliver fiscal stimulus and monetary relief packages in hopes of easing the damage on Wall Street and Main Street. Amidst this extreme volatility, Ariel Fund traded -35.14% lower during the quarter, trailing the Russell 2500 Value Index and Russell 2500 Index, which returned -34.64% and -29.72%, respectively.

從2020年開始,全球市場開始呈現高位,對全球經濟前景的改善和中美之間達成的第一階段貿易協議的廣泛樂觀情緒突顯了這一點。然而,隨着全球各國政府頒佈嚴格的遏制政策,關閉企業、停止商業,並實施“社會隔離”措施,將地區人口限制在家中,冠狀病毒疫情迅速而突然地逆轉,引發了巨大的經濟衝擊。病毒威脅的持續時間及其影響程度的不確定性,促使全球最大經濟體的政策制定者和央行推出財政刺激和貨幣救助方案,以期減輕華爾街和普通民眾的損失。在如此劇烈的波動中,阿里爾基金(Ariel Fund)當季股價下跌35.14%,落後於羅素2500價值指數(Russell 2500 Value Index)和羅素2500指數(Russell 2500 Index),後者分別下跌34.64%和29.72%。

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Leading manufacturer of consumer food products, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM) was the top contributor to results in quarter. In the midst of COVID -19, SJM’s staple products were met with high consumer demand. In response, the company began maximizing production at its manufacturing facilities, all of which remained open, to make its most in-demand people and pet products. SJM also expanded the hours of distribution centers so retailers could continually replenish inventories. Additionally, the company enacted substantial measures to help support its employees as well as coronavirus relief efforts for people and pets within the community. At today’s valuation, we continue to see the risk/reward skewed sharply to the upside.Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with SJM. Click here to check it out.SJM 30-Year Financial DataThe intrinsic value of SJMPeter Lynch Chart of SJM

消費食品的領先製造商,J.M.史姆克公司。(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:SJM)是第一季度業績貢獻者。在COVID-19中,澳博的主食產品滿足了高消費需求.作為迴應,該公司開始最大限度地提高其生產設施的產量,所有這些設施都保持開放狀態,以生產最受歡迎的人和寵物產品。澳博還擴大了配送中心的營業時間,以便零售商能夠不斷補充庫存。此外,該公司還頒佈了大量措施,以幫助支持其僱員以及社區內的人和寵物的冠狀病毒救濟工作。在今天的估值中,我們繼續看到風險/報酬急劇向上傾斜。GuruFocus用SJM檢測到了3個警告信號。點擊這裏查看。JM 30年金融數據--SJMPeterLynch圖的內在價值

Alternative asset manager, KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) also aided relative returns. KKR possess the size and organizational structure to benefit not only from the continued high level of institutional interest in alternative assets, but also from attractive corporate valuations in certain industries and geographies in the midst of historically low interest rates. KKR retains an extensive track record of strong performance across all types of economic and financial conditions and, in our view, should continue generating alpha for its clients post the COVID-19 crisis. Additionally, the company has a record of uncalled commitments and stands ready to take advantage of attractive valuations as it shops for future years of returns.

KKR&Co.公司另類資產管理公司(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:KKR)也幫助了相對回報。KKR擁有的規模和組織結構不僅得益於對替代資產的持續高水平的機構興趣,而且還得益於某些行業和地區在歷史低利率中具有吸引力的公司估值。KKR在所有類型的經濟和金融條件下都保持着強勁表現的廣泛記錄,我們認為,在我們看來,應該繼續為其客户在COVID-19危機後產生alpha。此外,該公司有着無謂的承諾記錄,並隨時準備利用具有吸引力的估值,為未來幾年的回報做好準備。

Moreover, global financial franchise, Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ:NTRS) benefitted performance in the quarter. NTRS is a trusted name in private banking and wealth management as well as a leader in the asset servicing industry with over 125 years of history and 25 years of consecutive profits. The bank operates in a favorable industry with a diversified product offering and high barriers to entry. While the macro low interest rate environment and recent Fed rate cuts are pressuring net interest margin and net interest income across the banking industry, NTRS has proven the quality of its franchise and the value of its conservative, operating approach. At current levels, NTRS is trading at a -49% discount to our estimate of private market value.

此外,全球金融特許經營權,北方信託公司。(納斯達克市場:NTR)受益於本季度的表現。非關税壁壘是私人銀行和財富管理領域值得信賴的名字,也是資產服務行業的領軍企業,擁有超過125年的歷史和25年的連續利潤。該銀行在一個有利的行業中經營,產品供應多樣化,進入門檻高。雖然宏觀低利率環境和近期美聯儲降息正在對整個銀行業的淨利差和淨利息收入構成壓力,但NTRS已經證明了其特許經營的質量及其保守經營方式的價值。按目前的水平,NTRS的交易價格比我們估計的私人市場價值低出-49%。

Alternatively several positions weighed on performance during the period. Global cruise vacation company Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) traded materially lower due to the global pandemic. RCL has voluntarily suspended all cruising, which will have a material impact on its financial results. While pricing and demand may be impaired for short period of time, we believe RCL’s balance sheet will enable the company to weather the storm and recover from this event. As patient, long-term investors, we view the risk/reward to be extremely favorable at current levels.

或者,有幾個職位在此期間影響了業績。環球遊輪度假公司皇家加勒比郵輪有限公司。(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:RCL)由於全球大流行,股價大幅下跌。RCL已自願暫停所有巡航,這將對其財務業績產生重大影響。雖然價格和需求可能會在短期內受到影響,但我們相信,RCL的資產負債表將使該公司能夠經受住這場風暴,並從這一事件中恢復過來。作為耐心的長期投資者,我們認為風險/回報在當前水平是非常有利的.

Shares of ViacomCBS Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAC) also experienced a sharp decline in the quarter, as COVID -19 added to the existing challenge of merger integration efforts. Cancellations in sports programming, softness in ad revenues, production delays, and a disruption in the upfront process will negatively impact near-term financial results. Nonetheless, we believe premium video content is the most valuable part of the media ecosystem. Based on our sum of the parts analysis, VIAC is currently trading -75% below our estimate of private market value. At today’s valuation, we view the risk/reward to be extremely skewed to the upside.

ViacomCBS公司股份(納斯達克市場:viaC)在本季度也經歷了急劇下降,因為COVID-19增加了合併整合努力的現有挑戰。體育節目的取消、廣告收入的疲軟、製作的延遲以及前期過程的中斷都會對近期的財務業績產生負面影響。儘管如此,我們相信優質視頻內容是媒體生態系統中最有價值的部分。根據我們的部分分析之和,viaC目前正在交易-比我們估計的私人市場價值低75%。在今天的估值中,我們認為風險/回報非常傾向於上行。

Lastly, television broadcaster and magazine advertiser, Meredith Corporation (NYSE:MDP) traded lower in the quarter, as COVID-19 added to the existing challenge of generating cost synergies from the TIME acquisition. The stock was also impacted by being removed from a high dividend yield index. While we acknowledge the challenging fundamentals in its business, local news viewership is up tremendously in the midst of the pandemic and we believe MDP’s profitable local television stations provide a margin of safety1 at today’s valuation level.

最後,電視廣播公司和雜誌廣告公司Meredith Corporation(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:MDP)在本季度的股價較低,因為COVID-19增加了從時間收購中產生成本協同效應的現有挑戰。股票也受到從高股息收益率指數中移除的影響。儘管我們承認MDP業務的基本面極具挑戰性,但當地新聞收視率在這場大流行中大幅上升,我們相信MDP盈利的本地電視台在今天的估值水平上提供了一個安全的空間。

The sell-off in March provided us an opportunity to initiate positions in global dental supplier, Envista Holdings Corporation (NYSE:NVST) and America’s largest ski resort operator, Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE:MTN) . NVST Recently spun out of global science and technology conglomerate Danaher Corporation and maintains a market leadership position in an industry with favorable growth dynamics. NVST benefited from research & development investments pre-spin and is launching several new products in high-growth segments within the dental end -market. Looking ahead, we expect revenue growth and margin expansion as the company benefits from facility consolidation, top-line leverage and previous technological investments. By comparison, MTN is a high quality business with a clear moat2 and scale advantage in a niche market managed by a team that has demonstrated smart capital allocation decisions, maximizing strong recurring cash flows. We believe the headwinds the travel and leisure industry are currently experiencing will soften and think MTN’s robust balance sheet will weather the storm.

3月份的出售使我們有機會在全球牙科供應商、ENVista控股公司(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:NVST)和美國最大的滑雪勝地運營商Vail Resorts Inc。(紐約證券交易所代碼:MTN)NVST最近脱離了全球科技集團Danaher公司,並在一個具有良好增長動力的行業中保持了市場領先地位。NVST得益於研發投資,並在牙科終端市場的高增長領域推出了幾款新產品。展望未來,我們預計收入增長和利潤率擴張,因為該公司受益於設施整合,頂級槓桿和以往的技術投資。相比之下,MTN是一家高質量的企業,在一個由團隊管理的利基市場中擁有清晰的護城河和規模優勢,該團隊展示了明智的資本配置決策,最大限度地利用了強大的經常性現金流。我們相信,旅遊和休閒行業目前面臨的逆風會減弱,我們認為MTN強勁的資產負債表將度過這場風暴。

Meanwhile, we sold out of money transfer and payment services provider Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) as the name was approaching our estimate of private market value. We also exited manufacturer of testing systems and sensor technologies, MTS Systems Corporation (NASDAQ:MTSC) in the quarter, to pursue more compelling opportunities.

與此同時,我們出售的資金轉移和支付服務提供商西部聯合公司(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:吳),因為名稱接近我們的估計私人市場價值。我們還退出了測試系統和傳感器技術製造商MTS系統公司(納斯達克市場代碼:MTSC),以尋求更有吸引力的機會。

While it may get worse before it gets better, we expect COVID-19 to be a transitory event. In our opinion, the U.S. will undergo a sharp, brief recession but believe this economic cycle will be ‘cured’ by extensive monetary and fiscal stimulus as the risks associated with the threat of the virus recede. We expect a solid recovery for equities and earnings as early as the fourth quarter of 2020 or first quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, we are taking advantage of the extreme volatility in the market to methodically and thoughtfully shop for years of future returns. We strongly believe the dedicated, contrarian, patient investor that stays the course and consistently owns differentiated business models with solid competitive positioning and robust balance sheets will deliver superior returns over the long-run.

雖然在情況好轉之前,情況可能會變得更糟,但我們預計COVID-19將是一個暫時性事件。我們認為,美國將經歷一場短暫而劇烈的衰退,但我們相信,隨着與病毒威脅相關的風險消退,這一經濟週期將被廣泛的貨幣和財政刺激措施“治癒”。我們預計,早在2020年第四季度或2021年第一季度,股市和收益就會穩步復甦。與此同時,我們正利用市場劇烈波動的機會,有條不紊地、有條不紊地為未來數年的回報進行投資。我們堅信,忠誠、逆勢、耐心的投資者,如果能堅持下去,並始終擁有具有堅實競爭地位和穩健資產負債表的差異化商業模式,將帶來更高的長期回報。

1 Attempting to purchase with a margin of safety on price cannot protect investors from the volatility associated with stocks, incorrect assumptions or estimations on our part, declining fundamentals or external forces.

1試圖以價格上的安全幅度進行購買,並不能保護投資者免受與股票有關的波動、我們的錯誤假設或估計、基本面下降或外部力量的影響。

2 An economic moat is a perceived competitive advantage that acts as a barrier to entry for other companies in the same industry. This perceived advantage cannot protect investors from the volatility associated with stocks, incorrect assumptions or estimations, declining fundamentals or external forces.

2經濟護城河是一種公認的競爭優勢,對同行業的其他公司來説是進入的障礙。這種感知的優勢不能保護投資者免受與股票相關的波動、錯誤的假設或估計、基本面下降或外部力量的影響。

This commentary candidly discusses a number of individual companies. These opinions are current as of the date of this commentary but are subject to change. The information provided in this commentary does not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security Also check out: John Rogers Undervalued StocksJohn Rogers Top Growth CompaniesJohn Rogers High Yield stocks, andStocks that John Rogers keeps buying About the author:

本評論坦率地討論了一些個別公司。這些意見在本評註發表之日是最新的,但可能會有變化。本評論中提供的信息不足以作為投資決策的依據,也不應被視為購買或出售任何特定證券的建議:John Rogers低估了股票--John Rogers TopGrowth CompaniesJohn Rogers高收益股票,John Rogers一直在購買關於作者的股票:

Sydnee Gatewood I am the editorial director at GuruFocus. I have a BA in journalism and a MA in mass communications from Texas Tech University. I have lived in Texas most of my life, but also have roots in New Mexico and Colorado. Follow me on Twitter! @gurusydneerg

我是GuruFocus的編輯主任。我擁有德克薩斯科技大學新聞學學士學位和大眾傳播碩士學位。我一生中大部分時間都住在德克薩斯州,但也在新墨西哥州和科羅拉多州紮根。在推特上跟我來!

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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