Hong Kong's Wande News Agency reported that although the market expected some uncertainties to have little impact on the non-farm sector, the actual results surprised the market. Non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 701000 after the quarterly adjustment in March, the first reduction since 2010, and increased by 273000 in February.

The US unemployment rate was 4.4 per cent in March and is expected to be 3.8 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent. Rising unemployment and the worst non-farm data since 2009 did not send market sentiment into panic, and the reaction of all categories of assets was not obvious. There is such a result.Mainly due to the mood of risky assets supported by the sharp rise in crude oil prices today.. The chart below shows that the price of crude oil has been highly correlated with the performance of the S & P 500 over the past year.

Non-farm employment cannot reflect the impact of black swans

The non-farm data do not reflect the impact of black swans on the labour market. The Labor Department announced a record 6.6 million initial jobless claims on April 3, while the number of initial jobless claims announced last week reached 3.3 million, a record for the second week in a row. So the non-farm data for April may be more "unexpected".

In the past two weeks, about 6% of American workers have applied for unemployment benefits, up from 0.3% at the end of February, suggesting that black swans are making up a growing share of the American economy. People receiving unemployment benefits mainly come from catering, retail, trade and construction industries.

"the speed and magnitude of the decline in the labor market is unprecedented," said Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP. Ms. Hunt said she expected to file millions more claims in the coming weeks and expected to lose 20 million jobs. "We didn't see this in the global financial crisis. We didn't see this in the past. Consumption has been completely reduced. "

The Congressional Budget Office updated its economic forecasts based on data on unemployment claims and recent stimulus measures. The US unemployment rate is expected to exceed 10 per cent in the second quarter, and gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by more than 7 per cent, or an annualised 28 per cent. "but the decline could be even greater," the Congressional Budget Office said. "he added that his estimate" is currently highly uncertain. "

There are several reasons why unemployment is likely to remain high in the coming weeks. On the one hand, the federal bailout package signed last week has added workers who can make independent contractors and self-employed people eligible for benefits. In addition, states continue to tighten locking measures, driving more consumers to stay at home and more businesses to close or restrict operations.

The US job market was "sunny" before the Black Swan hit.

In February, when Black Swan had not fully affected the United States, non-farm payrolls data were higher than market expectations: the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 273000 new jobs in February, while the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the lowest level in more than 50 years.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting wages to rise by 175000 and unemployment to be 3.5 per cent. Over the past year, average hourly income has increased by 3 per cent, in line with expectations, while the average working week, seen as a key indicator of productivity, has increased by 34.4 hours.

The Labor Department said government employment increased by 45,000 in February, reflecting the increase of 7000 new temporary workers in the 2020 census. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5% in February, the lowest level in 50 years set in December 2019. The labour force participation rate remained at 63.4 per cent, close to the highest level since mid-2013, indicating that there is a significant proportion of the working-age population who are employed or actively seeking employment.

In fact, as recently as early March, the US job market still showed a "sunny day": 54% of the companies surveyed in early March said they were hiring or trying to hire, according to 627 companies surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Commerce. 24% of companies said their number one problem was finding qualified workers. Overall, 35% of companies say they have job openings that cannot be filled. The labor shortage in the construction industry is particularly acute, with 56% of companies not hiring employees.

In addition, 31 per cent of companies reported pay increases for workers, 16 per cent planned to raise wages in the coming months, and 9 per cent planned to create new jobs. This is a pretty good figure, although it is down 12:00 from February, which may reflect companies' hesitation about the extent of the spread of black swans. Now, many employers will have to cut wages or lay off workers. Private non-farm payrolls fell by 27000 as of March 12, according to the latest monthly report by the small non-farm ADP.

Nick Banc, director of economic research at Indeed, a job placement company, said: "it can be said that the labor market was in a good position before black swans began to spread. But the resilience of the labour market will be tested in the coming months. "