DBS Sees Earnings Shift for S-REITs Despite High Interest Rates
DBS Sees Earnings Shift for S-REITs Despite High Interest Rates
Recent results show operational resilience, and growth momentum is expected to build this quarter. With capital management metrics stabilizing, DBS analysts Dale Lai and Derek Tan believe the worst may be over for the sector.It expects a DPU CAGR of over 2.1% from FY25 to FY26, signaling a recovery in investor payouts.
預計2025財年至2026財年DPU複合年增長率超過2.1%，這表明投資者的分紅正在恢復。
Despite a "higher for longer" rate environment, DBS sees a shift in the earnings trend for Singapore REITs (S-REITs), with some already benefiting from lower financing costs.
儘管面臨"長期高利率"的環境，DBS觀察到新加坡信託（S-REITs）的收益趨勢發生了變化，一些信託已經受益於較低的融資成本。
The brokerage firm expects a distribution per unit (DPU) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 2.1% from FY25 to FY26, signaling a recovery in investor payouts.
該券商預計，從2025財年到2026財年的每單位分配（DPU）複合年增長率（CAGR）將超過2.1%，這標誌着投資者回報的恢復。
Recent results show operational resilience, and growth momentum is expected to build this quarter. With capital management metrics stabilizing, DBS analysts Dale Lai and Derek Tan believe the worst may be over for the sector.
最近的結果顯示出運營韌性，預計本季度增長勢頭將持續。DBS分析師Dale Lai和Derek Tan認爲，行業的最壞情況可能已經過去。
A potential 25 bps interest rate cut—currently not factored into estimates—could further drive earnings upside of 1.2% annually.
預計潛在的25個點子的利率下調——當前未納入預測——可能進一步推動每年的收益上行1.2%。
Recent bond issuances by Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) at 3.1%-3.3% suggest that further declines in portfolio interest rates may be in sight.
近期，星獅地產信託（FCT）和美凱龍泛亞商業信託（MPACT）以3.1%-3.3%發行的債券表明，組合利率進一步下降的可能性顯現。
Additionally, Singapore's 3-month SORA has peaked and is stabilizing at 2.4%-2.5%, offering refinancing benefits to S-REITs. Historically, S-REITs have performed well during periods of rate pauses and cuts, as seen in 2016 and again in late 2023 through early 2024.
此外，新加坡3個月的SORA已經達到頂峯，正在以2.4%-2.5%的水平穩定，爲S-REITs提供再融資的好處。歷史上，S-REITs在利率暫停和下調期間表現良好，如2016年以及2023年末到2024年初所示。
DBS maintains a preference for Retail and Industrial REITs, citing resilient earnings and strong growth prospects in FY25. The bank continues to favor Retail over Industrial, followed by Office and Hospitality, with China-focused Retail REITs and Hospitality REITs likely to be early beneficiaries of lower rates.
DBS對零售和工業信託保持偏好，指出在2025財年中收益韌性和強勁的增長前景。該銀行繼續青睞零售信託高於工業信託，其次是辦公和酒店信託，聚焦中國的零售信託和酒店信託可能會率先受益於利率下降。
Among its top picks, DBS highlights CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) in the Retail segment, whilst Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) are preferred in the Industrial space.
在其重點推薦中，DBS強調了零售板塊的凱德綜合商業信託（CICT）和星獅地產信託（FCT），而在工業領域則偏好美佳工業信託（MINT）和美佳物流信託（MLT）。
S-REITs are currently trading at 0.8x price-to-book (P/B) and offer a projected FY25 yield of 6.2%, translating to a 3.5% spread against the 10-year bond yield—slightly above historical levels.
目前S-REITs的交易價格爲賬面價值的0.8倍（P/B），預計2025財年的收益率爲6.2%，這意味着相較於10年期債券收益率的利差爲3.5%，略高於歷史水平。
DBS sees value in Hospitality and Industrial REITs, which are trading at yield spreads 50-100bps higher than their historical averages. The report suggests that this presents a tactical re-entry opportunity into the sector, particularly as interest rates approach their peak.
DBS認爲酒店和工業信託具有投資價值，它們的收益率利差比歷史平均水平高出50-100個點子。報告指出，這爲重返該板塊提供了戰術性機會，尤其是在利率接近峰值之際。
Whilst office assets continue to face challenges, with higher vacancies and slower rental growth, China's real estate market is showing early signs of stabilization despite ongoing concerns over oversupply.
儘管辦公資產繼續面臨挑戰，空置率較高且租金增長緩慢，但中國的房地產市場正在顯露出早期的穩定跡象，儘管仍然存在過剩的擔憂。
Overall, DBS remains constructive on S-REITs, emphasizing that stabilizing interest rates and refinancing savings will be key drivers of the next phase of earnings growth.
總體而言，DBS對S-REITs持建設性看法，強調穩定的利率和再融資的節省將是下一階段盈利增長的關鍵驅動因素。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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