Billionaire Investor Howard Marks Warns Against AI's 'Powerful' Novelty And FOMO As Nvidia, Other AI-Linked Stocks Tumble In 2025: Says This Enthusiasm 'Sometimes Leads To Bubbles'
Billionaire Investor Howard Marks Warns Against AI's 'Powerful' Novelty And FOMO As Nvidia, Other AI-Linked Stocks Tumble In 2025: Says This Enthusiasm 'Sometimes Leads To Bubbles'
Chipmaker Nvidia Corp., along with other artificial intelligence-linked stocks and exchange-traded funds, have plunged in 2025 despite the growing enthusiasm surrounding the sector. This expert who predicted the dot-com crash compares the AI-linked enthusiasm to instances that "sometimes leads to bubbles".
芯片製造商英偉達CORP和其他與人工智能相關的股票及可交易ETF在2025年大幅下跌,儘管該板塊的熱情持續增長。這位預測互聯網泡沫崩潰的專家將與人工智能相關的熱情比作一些"有時會導致泡沫"的情況。
What Happened: After the release of his latest memo, 'On Bubble Watch,' in early January, Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, spoke about how AI is poised to change the world in a podcast titled 'Behind the Memo – On Bubble Watch' with Harry Whitelaw.
事件回顧:在他於1月初發佈的最新備忘錄《泡沫觀察》中,Oaktree資本管理公司的聯合創始人兼聯席主席霍華德·馬克斯談到了人工智能將如何改變世界,並在名爲《備忘錄背後——泡沫觀察》的播客中與哈利·懷特勞進行了交流。
According to Marks, the novelty of AI places no limits on the potential and enthusiasm surrounding the sector. Having "no historical" base also aids to the unending enthusiasm for AI.
根據馬克斯的說法,人工智能的新奇性對該領域的潛力和熱情沒有限制。沒有"歷史"基礎也有助於無限制的人工智能熱情。
Highlighting these conditions, Marks said, "That's a great precursor for the kind of enthusiasm that sometimes leads to bubbles."
馬克斯強調了這些條件,表示:"這是一種很好的先兆,預示着有時會導致泡沫的熱情。"
"The thrill of the new thing and the fear of missing out is an incredibly powerful combination. I've seen it at work many times and it'll never stop, in my opinion," he added.
他補充道:"新事物的興奮感和錯失機會的恐懼感是一種極其強大的組合。我認爲我多次見過這在運作,永遠也不會停止。"
These predictions came true as the AI-linked stocks and sectors have underperformed in 2025. Despite the emergence of DeepSeek, which according to many experts will only fuel the demand of AI, the weakness in the sector is evident after unbridled enthusiasm in 2024.
這些預測在2025年成爲現實,因爲與人工智能相關的股票和板塊表現不佳。儘管DeepSeek的出現,據許多專家說,將只會加大對人工智能的需求,但在2024年無拘無束的熱情後,該領域的疲軟仍然顯而易見。
Stocks |
YTD Performance |
One Year Performance |
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) |
-9.76% |
46.42% |
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) |
-1.01% |
37.86% |
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) |
-5.16% |
-4.32% |
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) |
-3.75% |
19.36% |
Alphabet Inc. Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG) |
-9.71% |
28.26% |
Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) |
11.51% |
34.13% |
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) |
-22.74% |
55.76% |
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) |
12.92% |
253.18% |
Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) |
0.02% |
45.59% |
股票 |
今年迄今表現 |
一年表現 |
英偉達公司(納斯達克:NVDA) |
-9.76% |
46.42% |
蘋果公司(納斯達克:AAPL) |
-1.01% |
37.86% |
微軟公司(納斯達克:MSFT) |
-5.16% |
-4.32% |
亞馬遜公司(納斯達克:AMZN) |
-3.75% |
19.36% |
Alphabet Inc. C類股 (納斯達克:GOOG) |
-9.71% |
28.26% |
Meta Platforms Inc. (納斯達克:META) |
11.51% |
34.13% |
特斯拉公司 (納斯達克:TSLA) |
-22.74% |
55.76% |
Palantir Technologies Inc. (納斯達克:PLTR) |
12.92% |
253.18% |
甲骨文公司 (紐交所:ORCL) |
0.02% |
45.59% |
Broadly, the AI-linked ETFs have also largely underperformed in 2025.
總體而言,人工智能相關的ETF在2025年也大多數表現不佳。
ETF Name |
YTD Performance |
One Year Performance |
iShares US Technology ETF (NYSE:IYW) |
-3.06% |
14.53% |
Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (NYSE:FTEC) |
-3.80% |
13.40% |
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN) |
1.09% |
20.90% |
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (NYSE:IGM) |
-2.19% |
16.18% |
iShares Global Tech ETF (NYSE:IXN) |
-2.50% |
9.97% |
ETF名稱 |
今年迄今表現 |
一年表現 |
美國科技ETF-iShares (紐交所:IYW) |
-3.06% |
14.53% |
富達MSCI信息科技指數ETF (紐交所:FTEC) |
-3.80% |
13.40% |
互聯網指數ETF-First Trust (紐交所:FDN) |
1.09% |
20.90% |
iShares安碩環球技術ETF (紐交所:IGM) |
-2.19% |
16.18% |
iShares安碩環球技術ETF (紐交所:IXN) |
-2.50% |
9.97% |
Why It Matters: Famed investor Marks, who foresaw the dot-com bubble, once again sounded an alarm on Jan. 7, with his latest memo, 'On Bubble Watch'. He points to several "cautionary signs" in the current market, including soaring valuations, AI hype, and heavy reliance on mega-cap tech stocks.
爲什麼這很重要:著名投資者馬克斯曾預見到互聯網泡沫,他在1月7日再次發出了警報,發佈了最新備忘錄《泡沫觀察》。他指出當前市場的幾個"警告信號",包括估值飆升、人工智能炒作,以及對大型科技股的高度依賴。
Marks also highlights research from JP Morgan Asset Management showing that high valuations like today's often precede lackluster returns over the following decade. He cautions that investors should not ignore these warning signs, especially the elevated market valuations. Essentially asking to proceed with caution.
馬克斯還強調了摩根大通資產管理公司的一項研究,表明像今天這樣的高估值往往會在接下來的十年中導致回報平平。他警告投資者不應忽視這些警示信號,尤其是高企的市場估值。實質上是在呼籲謹慎行事。
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Friday. The SPY was up 1.56% to $594.18, and the QQQ also advanced 1.56% to $508.10, according to Benzinga Pro data.
價格走勢:SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust(紐交所:SPY)和納指100ETF(納斯達克:QQQ)分別跟蹤標普500指數和納斯達克100指數,週五上漲。SPY上漲1.56%至594.18美元,QQQ也上漲1.56%至508.10美元,數據來自Benzinga Pro。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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