BOC HONG KONG(02388.HK):LEADING CHINESE BANK REGIONAL AMBITIONS ACCELERATE
BOC HONG KONG(02388.HK):LEADING CHINESE BANK REGIONAL AMBITIONS ACCELERATE
We initiate with a "Buy" rating and a TP of HK$33.50. BOC Hong Kong ("BOCHK", or the "Company") demonstrates sustainable profitability fundamentals with strong business expansion visibility. Retail and corporate banking provide stable core operations, while insurance and treasury businesses enhance earnings scale. The Company continues to expand its presence in GBA and SEA markets. We project 2024-2026F net operating income growth of 6.5%/ 1.0%/ 6.1% and net profit growth of 11.5%/ 5.2%/ 10.8%. Our target price of HK$33.50 is based on PB valuation, implying 2024-2026F PB multiples of 1.05x/ 0.99x/ 0.94x. Given its stable growth outlook, BOCHK commands a premium valuation versus Hong Kong peers' average 2024F PB.
我們最初的評級爲 「買入」,目標價爲33.50港元。中銀香港(「中銀香港」 或 「公司」)展現了可持續的盈利基本面和強大的業務擴張知名度。零售和企業銀行業務提供穩定的核心業務,而保險和財資業務則擴大了收益規模。該公司繼續擴大其在大灣區和東南亞市場的影響力。我們預計2024-2026財年的淨營業收入將增長6.5%/1.0%/6.1%,凈利潤增長11.5%/5.2%/10.8%。我們的目標價爲33.50港元,基於人民銀行估值,這意味着2024-2026財年市盈率爲1.05倍/0.99倍/0.94倍。鑑於其穩定的增長前景,中銀香港的估值高於香港同行的2024財年平均市值。
BOCHK is one of Hong Kong's three note-issuing banks and the sole RMB clearing bank, maintains a strong position amid RMB internationalization. The Company has established a trilateral growth strategy centered on Hong Kong, with synergistic development across the GBA and SEA. BOCHK stands to benefit from three major strategic opportunities: RMB internationalization, GBA integration, and Chinese enterprises' overseas expansion. It is well-positioned to capture growth in RMB FX service and treasury management as Hong Kong strengthens its offshore RMB hub status. Additionally, GBA integration will drive increased cross-border commercial activities, while BOCHK's SEA presence provides solid support for Chinese enterprises' overseas expansion, creating new growth opportunities and high-quality client relationships.
中銀香港是香港三家發鈔銀行之一,也是唯一的人民幣清算銀行,在人民幣國際化中保持強勢地位。公司制定了以香港爲中心的三邊增長戰略,在大灣區和東南亞實現協同發展。中銀香港將受益於三大戰略機遇:人民幣國際化、大灣區整合和中國企業的海外擴張。隨着香港加強其離岸人民幣樞紐地位,它完全有能力實現人民幣外匯服務和財資管理的增長。此外,大灣區整合將推動跨境商業活動的增加,而中銀香港的東南亞業務爲中國企業的海外擴張提供了堅實的支持,創造了新的增長機會和高質量的客戶關係。
BOCHK consistently maintains industry-leading ROE among Hong Kong peers. We expect sustained earnings growth driven by: 1) US Fed's slower rate cut pace will moderate NIM pressure; the Company's high-quality assets and sophisticated liability cost management should maintain stable NIM levels; 2) property market is likely bottoming out; given superior loan customer quality of the Company, NPL ratio remains below industry average. As mainland property sector stabilizes, real estate exposure risks will further clear, reducing impairment losses to low levels; and 3) active expansion in GBA and SEA attracts diverse regional clients, supporting loan and deposit growth. Additionally, accelerating GBA integration and expanding cross border wealth management connect scheme should steadily boost fee income from payment services, credit facilities, and wealth management service etc. Insurance business also shows steady progress under regional integration, collectively driving non-interest income growth.
中銀香港在香港同行中一直保持行業領先的投資回報率。我們預計,持續的收益增長是由以下因素推動的:1)聯儲局放緩的減息步伐將緩解NIM的壓力;該公司的高質量資產和完善的負債成本管理應保持穩定的NIM水平;2)房地產市場可能觸底;鑑於公司優異的貸款客戶質量,不良貸款率仍低於行業平均水平。隨着內地房地產行業的穩定,房地產敞口風險將進一步清除,減值損失降至較低水平;3)大灣區和東南亞的積極擴張吸引了不同的區域客戶,支持了貸款和存款的增長。此外,加快大灣區整合和擴大跨境理財通計劃應穩步增加來自支付服務、信貸額度和财富管理服務等的費用收入。在區域一體化下,保險業務也顯示出穩步進展,共同推動非利息收入的增長。
Catalysts: 1) US Fed may slow rate cut; 2) cross-boundary wealth management connect; and 3) proactive policy may boost property market
催化劑:1) 聯儲局可能放緩減息;2) 跨境理財通;3) 積極政策可能會提振房地產市場
Risks: 1) Real estate industry depressed, with asset quality deteriorating; 2) weak credit demand in Hong Kong; and 3) economic downturn may exceed expectations
風險:1) 房地產行業低迷,資產質量惡化;2) 香港信貸需求疲軟;3) 經濟衰退可能超出預期
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