Clarity On Tariff Could Urge KLCI To Close The Week With Mild Gains
Clarity On Tariff Could Urge KLCI To Close The Week With Mild Gains
Technically, the house said a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed on the weekly chart, signalling a potential trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. However, last week's sharp rally could lead to mild profit-taking, likely causing a temporary pause in momentum during the first half of the week. The FBM KLCI climbed 2.18% (33.99 points) to close at 1,590.91 last week, driven by bottom-fishing activities and a relief rally in data centre-related stocks. All sectors saw weekly gains, led by Construction (+7.6%), Technology (+4.3%) and Healthcare (+3.4%).
FBM KLCI上週上漲2.18%（33.99點），閉盤於1,590.91，受到底部捕撈活動和數據中心相關股票的反彈推動。所有板塊均錄得周漲幅，其中施工(+7.6%)、科技(+4.3%)和醫療保健(+3.4%)領漲。
Domestically, Malaysia's industrial production index recorded a stronger-than-expected rise of 4.6% YoY in December, compared to 3.6% in November. Globally, sentiment improved as Trump delayed the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada by a month, though the 10% tariff on Chinese imports remained, prompting Beijing's retaliatory economic package.
在國內，馬來西亞的工業生產指數在12月錄得比預期更強勁的同比增長4.6%，相比11月的3.6%。在全球範圍內，情緒有所改善，因爲特朗普將對墨西哥和加拿大的25%關稅推遲一個月，儘管對中國進口的10%關稅仍然存在，促使北京採取報復性的經濟措施。
Looking ahead, Kenanga believes market volatility is expected to remain elevated post President Trump announced new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into US on Sunday, on top of new reciprocal tariffs later this week, potentially impacting global sentiment. Investors will also focus on Malaysia's 4Q GDP data on Friday, with YoY growth forecasted at 4.8% (vs 5.3% in 3QCY24) and full-year growth at 5.1% (vs 3.6% in CY23). Globally, attention will be on U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday, which could influence Fed's interest rate decision. Cautious sentiment is likely to persist amidst uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff concerns and upcoming key earnings releases this month.
展望未來，Kenanga認爲市場波動性預計在特朗普總統週日宣佈對所有鋼鐵和鋁進口徵收25%的新關稅後仍將保持高位，此外，預計本週晚些時候將有新的互惠關稅，這可能影響全球情緒。投資者還將關注馬來西亞週五的第四季度GDP數據，預計同比增長4.8%（相較於2024年第三季度的5.3%）和全年增長5.1%（相較於2023年的3.6%）。全球關注將集中在美國週三和週四公佈的CPI和PPI通脹數據，這可能會影響聯儲局的利率決策。在美國關稅問題和本月即將發佈的重要收益結果的不確定性中，謹慎的情緒可能會持續。
Technically, the house said a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed on the weekly chart, signalling a potential trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. However, last week's sharp rally could lead to mild profit-taking, likely causing a temporary pause in momentum during the first half of the week.
從技術上講，該機構表示在周線圖上形成了看好的吞沒K線形態，預示着從下行趨勢到上行趨勢的潛在趨勢反轉。然而，上週的強勁反彈可能導致輕微的獲利回吐，可能在本週前半段導致動能暫時停滯。
All in, Kenanga said it anticipates weakness in the first half of the week amid continued volatility, but the market is likely to resume its uptrend and close the week with mild gains, assuming Trump provides further clarity on tariff plans. Potential index drivers this week include PBBANK, CIMB, TNB, IHH and HLBANK. Key support levels are at 1,589 (5-week SMA) and 1,581 (13-day SMA), while resistance stands at 1,600 psychological level and 1,602 (50-week SMA).
總體而言，Kenanga表示預計在持續波動的情況下，本週前半段將出現疲軟，但市場有可能恢復上漲趨勢，並在週末以小幅獲利收盤，假設特朗普能進一步明確關稅計劃。本週可能的指數推動因素包括PBBANK、CIMB、TNB、IHH和HLBANK。關鍵支撐位位於1,589（5周SMA）和1,581（13日SMA），而阻力位則在1,600心理關口和1,602（50周SMA）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
，而今天在早盤衝高至24000附近入了熊仔后，指數大幅下跌最多接近6百多點，即時把昨日虧損賺回有突多
，而今天再破新高， 最高 24076 ， 其後收市時轉跌約70點， 出了陰燭， 暫時走勢仍未有破壞， 不過由前底至今已經上漲接近至6千點， 本人覺得有貨者可以繼續持貨直到 明顯有走勢轉壞才止賺離場， 沒貨者可以等待回調后再上車， 其實本人也希望能夠快點有回調， 一來可以上車， 二來回一回氣也健康
，暫時看法都是跟之前一樣， 覺得即使有所回調應該都不會跌得太深，但假若期貨失守22350企不穩收，便可能還有下跌空間， 期貨短期要跌破21400的機會應該也不大， 所以本人覺得如果有大幅的回調也是一個機會分注做多。近日都堅持不過夜持倉，暫只做即市， 因為不高追，也不隨便做空。支持阻力以現貨作參考
支持位 23150，23250，2...
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