Potential Re-rating For CelcomDigi On Higher Future Earnings
Potential Re-rating For CelcomDigi On Higher Future Earnings
Network integration and modernisation efforts remain on track, with CelcomDigi likely achieving 75% completion by the end of 2024. The company is expected to meet its full integration target by mid-2025, ensuring further cost efficiencies and service improvements.
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB Securities) has maintained its BUY call on CelcomDigi Bhd with a target price of RM4.20, citing stable earnings and strong dividend yields. The company is expected to announce its fourth-quarter results on Feb 13, with the research house projecting core net profit (CNP) to be flat quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) but up 12–15% year-on-year (YoY). Full-year earnings are anticipated to align closely with estimates, with an expected 3.3 sen dividend per share for the quarter.
聯昌投資銀行有限公司（CIMB Securities）維持了對CelcomDigi Bhd的買入看漲期權，目標價爲4.20令吉，理由是收益穩定，股息收益率強勁。預計該公司將於2月13日公佈其第四季度業績，該研究機構預計核心凈利潤（CNP）同比（QoQ）將持平，但同比增長12-15％。預計全年收益將與預期非常一致，預計本季度每股股息爲3.3仙。
Despite rising gross synergies from cost-saving initiatives, higher device costs and normalisation of other expenses are likely to offset gains. CIMB Securities noted that savings from the voluntary separation scheme and the removal of overlapping retail and network sites had contributed positively, but reversals of site rental over-accruals in the previous quarter led to an inflated comparison. Nevertheless, the full-year CNP is expected to fall within 5% of both CIMB Securities' RM1.81 billion forecast and the consensus estimate of RM1.74 billion.
儘管節約成本的舉措提高了總協同效應，但更高的設備成本和其他支出的正常化可能會抵消收益。CIMB Securities指出，自願離職計劃以及拆除重疊的零售和網絡站點所產生的儲蓄做出了積極的貢獻，但上一季度場地租金超額應計的逆轉導致比較誇大。儘管如此，預計全年CNP將跌至聯昌國際證券預測的18.1令吉和共識估計的17.4令吉的5％以內。
CelcomDigi's prepaid subscriber base is expected to stabilise further after a period of churn due to repricing and product harmonisation initiatives. Postpaid subscriptions continue to grow, driven by migration from prepaid and strong demand for converged plans. Analysts project total service revenue for the quarter to remain stable or show slight growth, though it may decline by 1–2% YoY. EBITDA margins may contract slightly QoQ due to higher device costs but are expected to improve by 1–2 percentage points YoY, supported by ongoing synergy realisation.
由於重新定價和產品協調舉措，CelcomDIGI的預付費用戶群在經歷了一段時間的流失之後，預計將進一步穩定。受從預付費計劃遷移以及對融合計劃的強勁需求的推動，後付費訂閱持續增長。分析師預計，該季度的總服務收入將保持穩定或略有增長，儘管可能同比下降1-2％。由於設備成本上漲，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率環比可能略有收縮，但在持續實現協同效應的支持下，預計將同比增長1-2個百分點。
Network integration and modernisation efforts remain on track, with CelcomDigi likely achieving 75% completion by the end of 2024. The company is expected to meet its full integration target by mid-2025, ensuring further cost efficiencies and service improvements.
網絡整合和現代化工作仍在按計劃進行，到2024年底，CelcomDigi可能完成75％。預計該公司將在2025年中期實現其全面整合目標，從而確保進一步的成本效率和服務改進。
The stock is trading at a fiscal year of 2025 (FY25) forecasted enterprise value to operating free cash flow ratio of 11 times, in line with Maxis at 10.8 times, and a 23% discount to its five-year average. The research house sees potential re-rating catalysts in the company's expected 17%–18% core earnings growth for FY25–FY26 and the finalisation of Digital Nasional Bhd's shareholding structure in the coming months.
該股的交易價格爲2025財年（FY25），預計企業價值與運營自由現金流的比率爲11倍，與Maxis的10.8倍持平，較其五年平均水平折扣23％。該研究機構認爲，該公司預計在25財年至26財年實現17％至18％的核心收益增長以及未來幾個月Digital Nasional Bhd股權結構的敲定，這可能成爲重新評級的催化劑。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
