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First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady

First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady

經濟學家警告,聯邦儲備保持不變,首次利率下調可能要到6月才會出現,"如果真的會出現的話"。
Benzinga ·  01/29 21:11

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, following a series of three consecutive rate cuts that began in September. Here's a look at how experts see the Federal Reserve's path ahead.

聯儲局在週三將利率維持在4.25%至4.5%的區間,此次會議是在自九月以來連續三次減息之後。下面是專家們對聯儲局未來路徑的看法。

Expert Ideas: Multiple economists noted that the language in the Fed's policy statement had turned slightly more hawkish as "progress" had been removed.

專家觀點:多位經濟學家指出,聯儲局政策聲明中的措辭稍微轉向鷹派,因爲「進展」已被刪除。

The statement released Wednesday reads, "Inflation remains somewhat elevated," a change from the prior statement which said that "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated."

週三發佈的聲明中提到:「通脹仍然較高,」與之前的聲明相比有所變化,之前的聲明表示「通脹在委員會2%的目標上取得了進展,但仍然較高。」

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said that the Federal Reserve is likely being cautious as they wait to see if policy changes from the Trump administration, including higher tariffs and tighter immigration regulations, lead to higher inflation.

聯信銀行首席經濟學家比爾·亞當斯表示,聯儲局可能會比較謹慎,因爲他們在等待特朗普政府的政策變化,包括更高的關稅和更嚴格的移民法規,是否會導致更高的通脹。

Investors are now pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, a 45% chance in June, a 28.3% chance in September, and a 17% probability of a cut in December.

投資者目前預計聯儲局在3月會議上減息的概率爲30%,6月爲45%,9月爲28.3%,12月減息的概率爲17%。

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, sees the first possible rate cut of 25 basis points coming in June and another quarter-point cut in December.

RSM的首席經濟學家約瑟夫·布魯蘇埃拉斯預計,首個可能的25個點子的減息將在6月進行,另一個25個點子的減息將在12月進行。

"We think the first possible date for any rate cuts that might come this year, if at all, is June," Brusuelas said.

布魯蘇埃拉斯表示:「我們認爲,今年可能出現任何減息的第一個可能日期是6月。」

Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, called Wednesday's pause from the Fed a "non-event" for markets and echoed Brusuelas' call for two 25-basis point rate cuts, one in June and one in December.

藍籌股日報的首席技術策略師拉里·坦塔雷利稱,聯儲局週三的暫停對市場而言是「非事件」,並呼應布魯蘇埃拉斯對6月和12月實施兩次25個點子減息的呼籲。

However, he cautioned that "Fed moves will really be based on future incoming payrolls data and inflation data."

然而,他警告說「聯儲局的舉措將真正基於未來的就業數據和通脹數據。」

Markets React: All major U.S. indices were down on Wednesday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), tracking the S&P 500, down 0.45% at $601.81 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, down 0.19% at $520.83.

市場反應:週三所有主要美國指數下跌,跟蹤S&P 500的SPDR 標普500指數ETF(紐交所:SPY)下跌0.45%,報601.81美元,而跟蹤納斯達克100指數的納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(納斯達克:QQQ)下跌0.19%,報520.83美元。

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Image: Shutterstock

圖片:Shutterstock

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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