AMD Gets A Downgrade And It's Not DeepSeek Related
AMD Gets A Downgrade And It's Not DeepSeek Related
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) from Buy to Hold and lowered the price target from $160 to $129.
Melius Research的分析師Ben Reitzes將美國超微公司(納斯達克:AMD)評級從買入下調至持有,並將目標價格從160美元下調至129美元。
Reitzes writes he should have rerated AMD 10 months ago after an epic run for AMD (up over 40% at one point in first-quarter of 2024) and it has nothing to do with DeepSeek.
Reitzes表示,他應該在10個月前就對AMD進行重新評級,因爲AMD在2024年第一季度曾大幅上漲超過40%,這與DeepSeek無關。
The analyst cut numbers on GPUs on January 6, and the stock actually went up 3%, so a guide on disappointing MI300 sales for 2025 is already expected.
該分析師在1月6日下調了對GPU芯片-雲計算的預期,而股票實際上上漲了3%,因此對2025年MI300銷售短暫失望的預期已經出現。
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He is now more cautious on x86 servers and PCs as well over the long term for AMD.
他現在對AMD的x86服務器和個人電腦長期持更謹慎的態度。
Reitzes noted that Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is going to increasingly "come for them" in both markets with its Arm-based CPUs that are optimized for "accelerated PCs."
Reitzes注意到,英偉達公司(納斯達克:NVDA)將在兩個市場上越來越多地"來襲"他們,採用基於Arm的CPU,這些CPU經過優化以適應"加速個人電腦"。
Also, the analyst is increasingly concerned that custom and Nvidia CPUs will cannibalize even more of the x86 server market in the long term, even though AMD's current chip, Turin, is doing well. As a result, he slashed his estimates again and is now well below consensus.
此外,該分析師越來越擔心,定製和英偉達的CPU將會在長期內進一步侵蝕x86服務器市場,儘管AMD目前的芯片土耳其表現良好。因此,他再次下調了自己的預期,現已遠低於市場共識。
Reitzes' estimates reflect lower total revenues in PC and server CPUs and slightly lower operating margins due to the mix, specifically in the Data Center segment.
Reitzes的預期反映了PC和服務器CPU的總營收下降,以及由於組合原因,尤其是在IDC概念方面,經營利潤稍有下降。
For 2024, the analyst maintained an EPS estimate of $3.33, which reflects revenue growth of 13% Y/Y to $25.6 billion, including Data Center growth of 98% to $12.9 billion (including $5.1 billion in AI GPU sales) and operating margins of 24.2%.
對於2024年,分析師維持每股收益(EPS)預測爲3.33美元,反映營業收入同比增長13%至256億,包括數據中心增長98%至129億(其中AI GPU銷售51億)和營業利潤率爲24.2%。
This estimate reflects fourth-quarter 2024 EPS of $1.10, based on revenue growth of 22% to 7.5 billion, including $1.9 billion in AI GPU sales. However, the analyst now estimates 2025 EPS of $4.54 (was recently cut to $4.91), reflecting revenue growth of 19% Y/Y to $30.5 billion (was 22% and $31.4 billion), including Data Center growth of 32% to $17 billion (was 39% and $17.9 billion) and operating margins of 27.6% (was 29.0%).
該預測反映了2024年第四季度的每股收益(EPS)爲1.10美元,基於營業收入增長22%至75億,包括AI GPU銷售19億。然而,分析師現在預計2025年每股收益(EPS)爲4.54美元(最近下調至4.91美元),反映營業收入同比增長19%至305億(原爲22%和314億),包括數據中心增長32%至170億(原爲39%和179億)和營業利潤率爲27.6%(原爲29.0%)。
Reitzes now estimates 2026 EPS of $5.75 (was $6.45), reflecting revenue growth of 17% Y/Y to $35.5 billion (was 19% and $37.3 billion) including Data Center growth of 24% to $21.1 billion (was 25% and $22.4 billion) and operating margins of 29.6% (was 31.6%).
Reitzes現在預計2026年每股收益(EPS)爲5.75美元(原爲6.45美元),反映營業收入同比增長17%至355億(原爲19%和373億),包括數據中心增長24%至211億(原爲25%和224億)和營業利潤率爲29.6%(原爲31.6%)。
Reitzes now estimates 2027 EPS of $6. 1 (was $7.98) reflecting revenue growth of 12% Y/Y to $39.9 billion (was 15% and $42.9 billion), including Data Center growth of 18% to $24.9 billion (was 20% and $26.8 billion) and operating margins of 30.7% (was 33.4%).
Reitzes現在預計2027年每股收益(EPS)爲6.1美元(原爲7.98美元),反映營業收入同比增長12%至399億(原爲15%和429億),包括數據中心增長18%至249億(原爲20%和268億)和營業利潤率爲30.7%(原爲33.4%)。
Reitzes noted that the new estimates reflect lower PC CPU revenue growth to 7% in fiscal 2026 (from 10%) and 3% in fiscal 2027 (from 9%), as well as lower traditional data, enter sales growth of 20% in 2026 (from 21%) and 15% in 2027 (from 16%).
Reitzes指出,新的預測反映了2026財年的個人電腦CPU營業收入增長下調至7%(由10%下調)和2027財年的3%(由9%下調),同時傳統數據、企業銷售的增長也下調至2026年的20%(由21%下調)和2027年的15%(由16%下調)。
Price Action: AMD stock is down 0.74% at $114.15 at the last check Tuesday.
價格動態:AMD股票在週二的最後檢查中下跌0.74%,報114.15美元。
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