Oil Prices Surge To Five-Month High Amid New US Sanctions On Russia
Oil Prices Surge To Five-Month High Amid New US Sanctions On Russia
Oil prices surged to a five-month high, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling near US$79 a barrel as the US introduced its most aggressive sanctions yet on Russia's energy sector.
油價上漲至五個月來的最高點,西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)收於每桶近79美元,美國針對俄羅斯能源部門實施了最強有力的制裁。
The measures target major exporters, insurance firms, and over 150 tankers, raising concerns about supply disruptions from one of the world's top producers. Adding to the pressure, the European Union is preparing to tighten enforcement of a price cap on Russian oil and impose further restrictions on natural gas.
這些措施針對主要出口商、保險公司和超過150艘油輪,引發了對全球頂級生產國之一的供應中斷的擔憂。加大壓力的是,歐洲聯盟正在準備收緊對俄羅斯石油的價格上限的執法,並對天然氣實施進一步限制。
WTI's prompt spread, which measures the price difference between the nearest delivery contracts, reached its highest since August, signalling near-term bullishness.
WTI最近交割合約的價差達到了八月份以來的最高點,顯示出短期看好的信號。
Market tension was further amplified by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's warning that Canada might impose 25% tariffs on oil exports to the US, with no exemptions, as Donald Trump assumes the presidency next week. Canadian oil accounts for more than half of US crude imports, predominantly from Alberta.
阿爾伯塔省省長丹妮爾·史密斯警告,加拿大可能會對出口到美國的石油徵收25%的關稅且不設豁免,市場緊張局勢進一步加劇,因爲特朗普概念將在下週就任總統。加拿大石油佔美國原油進口的超過一半,主要來自阿爾伯塔。
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the sanctions exceeded expectations and could pose significant downside risks to Russian oil supply, at least temporarily. The disruption could alter the market framework just as OPEC+ plans to ease production cuts in April after several delays.
根據摩根士丹利分析師的說法,這些制裁超出了預期,並可能對俄羅斯的石油供應帶來重大下行風險,至少是暫時的。中斷可能在OPEC+計劃於四月放鬆減產之後,改變市場框架。
The sanctions come amid a strong start to the year for crude prices, driven by colder weather, declining US stockpiles, and speculation that the Trump administration may tighten restrictions on Iranian oil flows in the coming months. While the sanctions' full impact remains uncertain, early signs of disruption are evident.
這些制裁是在原油價格年初強勁上漲的背景下實施的,原因是天氣寒冷、美國庫存下降,以及機構對特朗普政府在未來幾個月可能收緊對伊朗石油流動限制的猜測。儘管制裁的全面影響尚不確定,但早期跡象顯示出中斷的存在。
This evolving situation has introduced fresh challenges for central banks like the Federal Reserve, which may face renewed inflationary pressures if energy prices remain elevated. Investors have scaled back expectations for rate cuts this year, with the US economy proving robust despite persistent price pressures.
這一不斷髮展的局勢給金融機構如聯儲局帶來了新的挑戰,如果能源價格保持高位,可能會面臨重新出現的通貨膨脹壓力。儘管存在持續的價格壓力,投資者已降低了對今年減息的預期,美國經濟表明相當穩健。
Among financial institutions, Citigroup estimates that as much as 30% of Russia's so-called shadow fleet of tankers could be affected, potentially disrupting up to 800,000 barrels per day. However, Goldman Sachs noted that the supply loss might be mitigated if Russian oil is offered at steeper discounts to incentivise buyers.
在金融機構中,花旗集團估計,俄羅斯所謂的「影子艦隊」中多達30%的油輪可能會受到影響,可能導致每天高達80萬桶的中斷。然而,高盛指出,如果以更大的折扣出售俄羅斯石油以激勵買家,供應損失可能會得到緩解。
OPEC+, including Russia, has significant spare capacity and is expected to proceed with unwinding production cuts in April, which could temper price spikes if Brent crude surpasses US$85 a barrel. Still, analysts caution against overextending bullish bets, with technical indicators suggesting crude may be due for a pullback after recent gains.
OPEC+,包括俄羅斯,擁有顯著的閒置產能,預計將在四月繼續解除減產,這可能會在布倫特原油價格超過85美元每桶時抑制價格飆升。儘管如此,分析師仍然提醒不要過度擴展看多押注,因爲技術因數暗示原油在近期上漲後可能會回調。
Prices closed higher on Friday, with WTI for February delivery adding 2.9% to settle at US$78.82 a barrel in New York. Brent for March settlement rose 1.6% to US$81.01. The broader market remains focused on the interplay of sanctions, supply dynamics, and geopolitical developments that could reshape the outlook for 2025.
價格在週五收高,二月份交割的WTI上漲2.9%,收於78.82美元每桶。三月份交割的布倫特上漲1.6%,至81.01美元。更廣泛的市場依然關注制裁、供給動態以及地緣政治發展的相互作用,這可能會重新塑造2025年的展望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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