Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'
Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company's Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker's valuation metrics and growth prospects.
特斯拉公司（納斯達克：TSLA）投資者加里·布萊克週四警告不要對公司Optimus機器人計劃設定不切實際的期望，這引發了關於這家電動車製造商的估值指標和增長前景的辯論。
What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla's planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year.
發生了什麼：未來基金有限公司的管理合夥人布萊克計算出，特斯拉計劃到2027年生產50萬個Optimus機器人將每股收益增加約0.70美元，假設平均售價爲30,000美元，毛利率爲20%。這將補充他對該年每股收益7.70美元的核心預測。
The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla's price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings.
這一分析遭到了《投資中的戴夫·李》主持人戴夫·李的反對，他認爲，成功部署Optimus將由於增長潛力而大幅提高特斯拉的市盈率，而不僅僅是增量收益。
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.
布萊克爲他的保守立場辯護，指出特斯拉最近的市場表現。布萊克在X上寫道：「TSLA在過去三年表現不佳，因爲預期過高。」他提到，在此期間，特斯拉股價上漲了12%，而納斯達克100指數上漲了36%。
"Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years," Black wrote.
布萊克寫道：「每次我試圖調整預期時，我都會因過於謹慎而受到TSLA超級看好者的抨擊，而實際上即使我的預測在過去三年間也過於樂觀。」
One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get... pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 9, 2025
在TSLA 2025財年和2026財年的收益預計中可以清楚地看到這一點，過去12個月來，這一預計已下降了39%和45%，因爲市場意識到TSLA長期的50%複合成交量增長預測過高。每次我試圖調整預期時，我都會... pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS
— 加里·布萊克 (@garyblack00) 2025年1月9日
Why It Matters: The debate follows CEO Elon Musk's announcement that Tesla aims to produce several thousand Optimus robots in 2025, scaling to 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and potentially 500,000 in 2027.
此事的重要性：本次辯論緊隨首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克宣佈特斯拉計劃在2025年生產幾千個Optimus機器人，計劃在2026年擴大到50,000-100,000台，可能在2027年達到500,000台。
Bank of America analyst John Murphy recently valued Tesla's Optimus segment between $14 billion and $95 billion in his sum-of-parts analysis, representing just 2% of Tesla's total estimated value. Murphy sees greater potential in Tesla's robotaxi and Full Self-Driving capabilities, which he estimates could comprise over 75% of the company's future value.
美國銀行的分析師約翰·墨菲最近在他的分部估值分析中，將特斯拉的Optimus部門估值介於140億到950億之間，這僅佔特斯拉總估值的2%。墨菲認爲，特斯拉的機器人出租車和全自動駕駛能力潛力更大，他估計這兩項未來可能佔公司價值的75%以上。
"If investors want TSLA stock to stop underperforming, they need to stop pressuring analysts to push estimates ever higher," Black emphasized, citing that Tesla's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined by 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.
"如果投資者希望TSLA股票不再表現遜色，他們就需要停止施壓分析師不斷提高預期，"布萊克強調，特斯拉2025年和2026年的盈利預期在過去一年中分別下降了39%和45%。
- 'Regulatory Woes? Subscriber Declines? Falling Oil Prices? We're Buying!' Buffett Bets Big On $563M Worth Of Underdogs
- '監管困境？用戶減少？油價下跌？我們在買入！' 巴菲特大手筆下注價值56300萬美元的被低估股票。
Image Via Shutterstock
圖片來自Shutterstock。
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免責聲明：本內容部分使用人工智能工具生成，並經Benzinga編輯審核發佈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
