Mohamed El-Erian Warns US Treasury Yields Poised To Hover Near 5% Through 2025, Maps Out Survival Strategy
Mohamed El-Erian Warns US Treasury Yields Poised To Hover Near 5% Through 2025, Maps Out Survival Strategy
Although significantly higher yields are a common theme across advanced economies, there have been notable country-specific trends.U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward march as prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian predicts yields could remain elevated through 2025, highlighting persistent inflation concerns and shifting market dynamics.
美國國債收益率持續上漲，著名經濟學家穆罕默德·埃爾-埃裏安預測收益率可能會在2025年前保持高位，突顯出持續的通脹擔憂和市場動態的變化。
What Happened: The 20-year Treasury yield reached 4.96%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66% on Wednesday, reflecting broader moves across fixed-income markets.
發生了什麼：20年期國債收益率達到了4.96%，而10年期國債收益率在週三爲4.66%，反映了固定收益市場的廣泛動向。
El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, suggested on the social media platform X that the 10-year Treasury yield could "spend quite a bit of 2025 in the 4.75-5% range," despite consistent inflows into fixed income from both domestic and international investors.
埃爾-埃裏安，安聯的首席經濟顧問，在社交媒體平台X上建議，儘管國內外投資者持續流入固收，但10年期國債收益率可能在2025年有相當一段時間維持在4.75%-5%區間。
Although significantly higher yields are a common theme across advanced economies, there have been notable country-specific trends.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 8, 2025
Take the UK, for example.
The increase in yields there has matched the US, leading to a slightly higher overall level for its 10-year Gilt.
However,... pic.twitter.com/vCio1LkKAk
雖然顯著更高的收益率是發達經濟體中的一個常見主題，但各國之間有一些顯著的特定趨勢。
——穆罕默德·埃爾-埃裏安 (@elerianm) 2025年1月8日
以英國爲例。
那裏的收益率上升與美國相匹配，導致其10年期國債的整體水平略高。
然而，... pic.twitter.com/vCio1LkKAk
The yield trajectory comes amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate path, particularly as markets digest potential policy shifts under the incoming administration. Recent Fed minutes revealed officials used variations of the word "uncertain" twelve times, according to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
收益率的變化發生在關於聯邦儲備利率路徑的不確定性中，特別是當市場消化新政府潛在的政策變化時。根據LPL Financial的首席經濟學家傑弗裏·羅奇的說法，最近的聯邦會議紀要顯示官員們使用了"不確定"這個詞的變體十二次。
Speaking on CNBC, El-Erian downplayed concerns about inflation readings being "hotter than expected," arguing that current inflation targets may be outdated. This perspective aligns with some Fed officials' views that economic strength may not necessarily fuel inflationary pressures.
在CNBC上，埃爾-埃裏安淡化了對通脹數據"高於預期"的擔憂，認爲當前的通脹目標可能已經過時。這一觀點與一些聯邦官員的看法一致，他們認爲經濟的強勁不一定會推動通脹壓力。
Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates through early 2025. "Investors should expect no rate cuts in Q1 2025 and 10-year US Treasury yields in the 4.50 to 5.00% range," he noted.
藍籌股日報趨勢報告的首席技術策略師拉里·滕塔雷利預計聯邦儲備將在2025年初維持當前利率。他指出，"投資者應該預期2025年第一季度不會減息，10年期美國國債收益率在4.50%到5.00%區間內。"
Why It Matters: Markets showed mixed reactions to these developments. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed slightly lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest 0.25% gain.
爲什麼這很重要：市場對這些發展反應不一。SPDR 標普500指數ETF（紐交所：SPY）和納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克：QQQ）微跌，而道瓊斯指數則小幅上漲了0.25%。
The yield environment suggests investors may need to adapt their strategies. El-Erian advocates for "bar-belled investment portfolios" and bottom-up, name-driven investing rather than broad market or thematic approaches in the volatile year ahead.
收益環境表明投資者可能需要調整他們的策略。埃爾-埃裏安提倡"雙頭投資組合"和自下而上的、以個股爲驅動的投資，而不是在動盪的一年中使用廣泛的市場或主題性方法。
Extending what already has been quite a move in the last thirty days, the yield on the 10-year US government bond is trading this morning above 4.70% on the back of issues relating to inflation, growth, and new issuance.
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 8, 2025
Note that this move is notwithstanding many months of solid... pic.twitter.com/j9jZLxFT2V
在過去30天已經發生的較大變動基礎上，10年期美國國債收益率今天早上交易價格超過4.70%，這是由於與通脹、增長和新發債務相關的問題。
——穆罕默德·埃爾-埃裏安 (@elerianm) 2025年1月8日
注意，這一變動是儘管經歷了幾個月的穩健...... pic.twitter.com/j9jZLxFT2V
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