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PBB Plays It Safe And Continues Focus On SMEs

PBB Plays It Safe And Continues Focus On SMEs

PBb採取了謹慎態度,繼續專注於中小企業。
Business Today ·  01/09 03:27

Kenanga IB is maintaining its TP of RM5.10 and OUTPERFORM call on Public Bank Berhad. The house noted that the relief in NIMs may be short lived and PBBANK intends to stay conservative by managing risks. That said, the fact that PBBANK remains comfortable to release its LLC going forward indicates a steadier handle on asset quality and is consistent with a positive outlook on Malaysia. The recently completed acquisition of LPI is expected to generate synergistic gains, capitalising on an expanded agent network and enhanced cross-selling opportunities.

Kenanga Ib維持其目標價爲5.10令吉,對大衆銀行有限公司的看漲表現優於大盤。衆議院指出,NIM的緩解可能是短暫的,PBBank打算通過管理風險來保持保守。儘管如此,PBBank仍然樂於在未來發行其有限責任公司,這一事實表明資產質量的控制更加穩定,也與馬來西亞的樂觀前景一致。最近完成的對LPI的收購預計將利用擴大的代理網絡和增強的交叉銷售機會產生協同收益。

Key takeaways from a recent meeting with the group are as follows:
i. Spreading risks prudently. With regards to participating in Johor's Special Economic Zone initiative, the group intends to be
selective with its involvement to stay well-diversified across its geographical and away from large corporate portfolios to be up to 15% of their total loans book. SMEs are preferred (making up 18% of total loans) for their typically higher margin, stand to
benefit from the supply chain spillover from upcoming developments such as data centre and other infrastructure projects.

最近與該小組會晤的主要結論如下:
i. 謹慎地分散風險。關於參與柔佛州的經濟特區倡議,該小組打算
選擇性地參與其中,以保持其地理區域的多元化,遠離大型企業投資組合,使其佔貸款總額的15%。中小企業是首選(佔貸款總額的18%),因爲它們的利潤率通常更高
受益於即將到來的開發項目(例如數據中心和其他基礎設施項目)帶來的供應鏈溢出效應。

ii. NIM stability hopeful despite competition. PBBANK looks to close FY24 with a positive landing to NIMs (stable to +1 bps, from FY23: 2.20%), which was a positive surprise to us given much conservatism on margin retention at the start of the year. Led by the trimming of deposit rates (Oct 2024 fixed deposit board rates up to 2.50%), the group still sees favourable reception for its longer-term deposits (YoY, Sep 2024 +4.0% vs. industry +3.3%), which Kenanga attributes to its sticky retail clientele.

二。儘管競爭激烈,但希望保持穩定。PBBank希望在24財年結束時NIMS實現正降幅(穩定至+1個點子,從23財年的2.20%降至+1個點子),鑑於年初在利潤率保持方面持保守態度,這令我們感到意外。在存款利率下調(2024年10月定期存款委員會利率上調至2.50%)的帶動下,該集團仍認爲其長期存款受到好評(2024年9月同比增長4.0%,行業增長3.3%),Kenanga將其歸因於其粘性零售客戶。

The group said it will leverage on financing rates to improve its NIMs going forward, though its peers will likely deploy a similar mindset thus redirecting competition to this space. Hence, the house opines that the group's target towards SMEs to be apt

該集團表示,未來將利用融資利率來改善其NIM,儘管其同行可能會採用類似的思維方式,從而將競爭重定向到該領域。因此,衆議院認爲,該集團對中小企業的目標是恰當的

iii. Eyeing a gradual release of LLC. A credit cost target of <10 bps will likely extend into the long term thanks to continued discipline surrounding asset quality. Amid its prudency, the outstanding overlay of RM1.6b is preserved to safeguard against sudden shift in macros. The group opines to do well at a pre-pandemic LLC of 120% (3QFY24 at 154%) which translates to a writeback in provisions of up to RM855m. Still, such release is expected to be gradual to avoid indiscreet restocking of provisions.

三。着眼於逐步釋放有限責任公司。由於圍繞資產質量的持續紀律,

iv. Synergies from LPI to materialise. The house gathers that 25% of LPI's business presently originated from PBBANK, predominantly in its fire (mortgage) and motor (hire purchase) class products The completion of LPI's acquisition presents more opportunities for collaboration by tapping into its wide agent network (over 3,000 personnel) and PBBANK's 200 physical branches.

iv。LPI 的協同效應得以實現。該公司認爲,LPI目前25%的業務來自PBBank,主要是其消防(抵押貸款)和汽車(租購)類產品。LPI的收購完成通過利用其廣泛的代理網絡(超過3,000名員工)和PBBANK的200個實體分支機構爲合作提供了更多的合作機會。

The larger footprint would enable more effective cross selling of both insurance and financing products which could also be bundled for more attractive propositions, with LPI's M.A.T. and healthcare products possibly seeing the most traction going forward.

更大的佔地面積將使保險和金融產品的交叉銷售更加有效,這些產品也可以捆綁銷售以獲得更具吸引力的主張,而LPI的M.A.T. 和醫療保健產品在未來可能最受歡迎。

Forecasts. Maintained with FY24 ROE target of >12.5% looking to be met (9MFY24: 12.9%). The FY25F earnings for LPI of RM367m would translate to an additional 5% to PBBANK's earnings, before accounting for synergistic gains.

預測。維持24財年投資回報率超過12.5%的目標,有望實現(9MFY24:12.9%)。在計入協同收益之前,LPI爲36700萬令吉的 FY25F 收益將相當於PBBANK收益的額外5%。

Maintain OUTPERFORM and TP of RM5.10 based on an unchanged GGM-derived PBV of 1.54x (COE: 9.9%, TG: 4.0%, ROE: 13.0%) on FY25F BVPS of RM3.14. The house also applied a 5% premium to its TP based on a 4-star ESG rating, led by the stock's strong EEV financing pipeline.

FY25F BVPS爲3.14令吉,基於 GGM 衍生的 PBV 爲 1.54 倍(COE:9.9%,TG:4.0%,投資回報率:13.0%)不變,維持跑贏大盤和目標價 5.10 令吉。在股票強勁的EEV融資渠道的帶動下,該公司還根據4星ESG評級對其目標股價進行了5%的溢價。

PBBANK is expected to continue commanding a leading GIL ratio amongst peers which could be attributable to its densely
collateralised housing loan portfolio. While the stock may not have the highest dividend yield, the possibility for a more than biannual dividend payment could be of interest to selective investors. Currently unfactored are synergies from the injection of LPI which Kenanga anticipates to be positive.

預計PBBank將繼續保持同行中領先的GIL比率,這可能歸因於其密集度
抵押住房貸款組合。儘管該股的股息收益率可能不高,但選擇性投資者可能會對支付超過半年一次的股息感興趣。目前尚未考慮的是注入LPI所產生的協同效應,Kenanga預計這種協同效應將是積極的。

Risks to call include: (i) higher-than-expected margin squeeze, (ii) lower-than-expected loans growth, (iii) worse-than-expected deterioration in asset quality, (iv) further slowdown in capital market activities, (v) adverse currency fluctuations, and (vi) changes to OPR.

看漲風險包括:(i)利潤緊縮高於預期,(ii)貸款增長低於預期,(iii)資產質量惡化程度低於預期,(iv)資本市場活動進一步放緩,(v)不利的貨幣波動,以及(vi)OPR的變化。

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