Is The Bitcoin Top In? 75% Chance, Says Prominent Trader, But There's A Caveat
Is The Bitcoin Top In? 75% Chance, Says Prominent Trader, But There's A Caveat
He highlighted all-time high stock valuations and overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic impact of the new administration.Bitcoin's sudden course reversal from $102,000 to $95,000 has kickstarted a discussion among cryptocurrency traders and analysts about whether the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle top is in.
比特幣從102,000美元突然反轉至95,000美元，引發了數字貨幣交易者和分析師關於比特幣（數字貨幣：BTC）週期頂部是否已經到達的討論。
What Happened: Prominent crypto trader Ansem shared his outlook on the market cycle in a detailed post on X, expressing scepticism about continued unbridled growth.
發生了什麼：著名的加密貨幣交易員Ansem在X上詳細發帖分享了他對市場週期的看法，表示對持續的狂熱增長持懷疑態度。
Responding to another trader's assertion of a 20-25% chance that the market cycle has topped, Ansem countered with a 75% probability.
對此，一位交易員聲稱市場週期頂部的可能性爲20-25%，Ansem則以75%的概率進行反駁。
He highlighted all-time high stock valuations and overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic impact of the new administration.
他強調了歷史最高的股票估值和對新政府經濟影響的過於樂觀的預期。
Ansem notes that Trump-era policies, such as tariffs and job onshoring, could drive inflationary pressures, leading to higher consumer prices and employment rates.
Ansem指出，特朗普時代的政策，如關稅和崗位回流，可能會導致通貨膨脹壓力，從而推高消費價格和就業率。
The Fed's hawkish stance further dampens the likelihood of interest rate cuts, even as markets hope for cuts in 2025.
聯儲局的鷹派立場進一步減少了減息的可能性，即使市場希望在2025年減息。
For the crypto sector, a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan—though bullish—is seen as improbable in the short term, while regulatory clarity for DeFi and stablecoins may not significantly materialize until post-2027.
對於數字貨幣板塊，一個戰略性的比特幣儲備計劃儘管看好，但在短期內被視爲不太可能，而DeFi和穩定幣的監管清晰度可能要到2027年後才會顯著實現。
Also Read: Bitcoin Is Suffering From A Shift In Macro Expectations, Analyst Says: Here's What That Means
另請閱讀：分析師表示，比特幣正面臨宏觀預期的變化：這意味着什麼
Outlook for 2025-2026: Ansem predicts a more measured uptrend rather than an "up only" cycle:
2025-2026年展望：安森預測將出現一種更爲溫和的上升趨勢，而不是"僅僅上漲"的週期：
Growth will be driven by innovative projects, such as Ethena and Hyperliquid, and consumer-focused teams, such as Base and Parallel.
增長將由創新項目驅動，如以太幣和Hyperliquid，以及以消費爲中心的團隊，如Base和Parallel。
Broad altcoin rallies, like those seen in 2021, are unlikely due to tighter monetary conditions and market maturity.
由於貨幣條件收緊和市場成熟，像2021年那樣的廣泛山寨幣反彈是不太可能的。
Instead, sectoral rotations—such as the DeFi rally of 2021—will drive pockets of outperformance.
相反，板塊輪動—如2021年的DeFi反彈—將驅動一些超額表現。
Retail investors heavily exposed to altcoins may perceive sideways trends in major cryptocurrencies as a bear market, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.
大量投資于山寨幣的散戶投資者可能會將主要數字貨幣的橫盤趨勢視爲熊市，這強調了適應性策略的必要性。
Why It Matters: Ansem's insights reflect the evolving dynamics of the crypto market, with greater emphasis on selective, innovation-driven growth and caution toward broader market conditions.
其重要性：安森的見解反映了加密市場的發展動態，更加註重選擇性、創新驅動的增長及對更廣泛市場條件的謹慎態度。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。