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Is Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) A Risky Investment?

Is Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) A Risky Investment?

Peabody Energy(紐交所:BTU)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  01/06 20:35

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李璐直言不諱地說,'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多風險時,我們總是喜歡查看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務超負荷可能導致破產。 重要的是,Peabody Energy公司(紐交所代碼:BTU)確實揹負着債務。 但是,股東應該爲其債務使用感到擔憂嗎?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務是一種幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還其貸方,那麼它就處於貸方的掌控之下。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸方可以控制企業。 然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低價發行股份,永久稀釋股東,只爲改善其資產負債表。 然而,通過替換稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資於增長的企業的極好工具。 當我們考慮一家公司對債務的使用時,我們首先會將現金和債務一同考慮。

How Much Debt Does Peabody Energy Carry?

Peabody Energy揹負多少債務?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Peabody Energy had US$313.4m in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$772.9m in cash, so it actually has US$459.5m net cash.

下圖(您可以點擊以獲取更詳細信息)顯示,Peabody Energy在2024年9月的債務爲31340萬美元;與前一年相差不大。 然而,其資產負債表顯示它持有77290萬美元的現金,所以實際上它的淨現金爲45950萬美元。

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NYSE:BTU Debt to Equity History January 6th 2025
紐交所:BTU債務與股本歷史 2025年1月6日

A Look At Peabody Energy's Liabilities

查看Peabody Energy的負債

According to the last reported balance sheet, Peabody Energy had liabilities of US$778.6m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.40b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$772.9m as well as receivables valued at US$304.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.10b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根據最近報告的資產負債表,Peabody Energy的負債爲77860萬美元,12個月內到期的負債爲14億美元。爲了抵消這些義務,它擁有77290萬美元的現金,以及30420萬美元的應收賬款,12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收款的總和多出11億美元。

Peabody Energy has a market capitalization of US$2.46b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Peabody Energy also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

Peabody Energy的市值爲24.6億美元,因此如果需要,它很可能籌集資金來改善其資產負債表。但我們絕對需要關注它的債務是否帶來過多風險的跡象。儘管它的負債值得關注,但Peabody Energy的現金卻超過了債務,因此我們相當有信心它能夠安全地管理其債務。

The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Peabody Energy if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 59% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Peabody Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

如果管理層無法阻止去年59%的EBIT削減,其債務的適度可能會對Peabody Energy變得至關重要。當一家公司看到其收益暴跌時,有時它與貸方的關係也會惡化。分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是關注的重點。但將來收益比其他任何因素都能判斷Peabody Energy保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Peabody Energy has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the most recent three years, Peabody Energy recorded free cash flow worth 71% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能會喜愛會計利潤,但貸方只接受真實現金。儘管Peabody Energy的資產負債表上有淨現金,但查看它將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力仍然值得,幫助我們了解它是如何快速增加(或減少)現金餘額的。在最近三年中,Peabody Energy記錄的自由現金流佔EBIT的71%,考慮到自由現金流排除了利息和稅項,這大致是正常的。這種真實現金意味着它可以在需要時減少其債務。

Summing Up

總結

While Peabody Energy does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$459.5m. The cherry on top was that in converted 71% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$346m. So we are not troubled with Peabody Energy's debt use. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Peabody Energy (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

儘管Peabody Energy的負債超過流動資產,但它的淨現金也達到了45950萬美元。更重要的是,它將71%的EBIT轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了34600萬美元的收入。因此,我們並不擔心Peabody Energy的債務使用。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解了大部分債務。但最終,每個公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們發現了Peabody Energy的5個警告信號(其中1個不應該被忽視!),在你投資之前應該了解這些信號。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

最終,通常更好的是關注沒有淨負債的公司。你可以訪問我們特別列出這些公司的名單(所有公司都有盈利增長的記錄)。這是免費的。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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