US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.After much of 2024 marked by contraction, there are now brighter signs emerging from the tunnel of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
在2024年的大部分時間裏都處於收縮狀態，現在美國製造業板塊的隧道中出現了更加明亮的跡象。
Data revealed Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November and surpassing economists' expectations of 48.4%.
週五，供應管理協會公佈的數據表明，12月份製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）升至49.3%，高於11月份的48.4%，超出經濟學家的預計48.4%。
The outcome marks the strongest reading since April 2024 and second consecutive month of improvement in the PMI, a trend not seen since September 2023.
這一結果標誌着自2024年4月份以來最強的讀數，也是PMI連續第二個月改善，這是自2023年9月份以來未曾見過的趨勢。
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.
然而，該指數仍低於分隔擴張與收縮的關鍵50%的門檻，反映出已經連續第九個月——以及最近27個月中的26個月——處於收縮區間。
Key Manufacturing Metrics Show Encouraging Trends
關鍵製造業指標顯示出令人鼓舞的趨勢
While the headline PMI remains in contraction, some sub-indices suggest that momentum may be turning:
儘管總體PMI仍處於收縮狀態，但一些子指數表明，勢頭可能正在轉變：
- New Orders Index: Climbed to 52.5% in December, up from 50.4% in November. This is the second straight month in expansion territory after seven months of contraction.
- Production Index: Jumped to 50.3%, up significantly from November's 46.8%, marking its return to expansion after six months of contraction.
- Prices Index: Rose from 50.3% in November to 52.5%, indicating increasing prices paid by manufacturers.
- Backlog of Orders Index: Improved from 41.8% in November to 45.9%, though still below 50%.
- Employment Index: Fell to 45.3% from November's 48.1%, reflecting continued de-staffing in the sector.
- 新訂單指數：12月份升至52.5%，高於11月份的50.4%。這是連續第二個月處於擴張區間，此前經歷了七個月的收縮。
- 生產指數：躍升至50.3%，相比於11月份的46.8%大幅上升，標誌着在經歷六個月收縮後再次回歸擴張。
- 價格指數：從11月的50.3%上升至52.5%，表明製造商支付的價格在增加。
- 訂單積壓指數：從11月的41.8%改善至45.9%，儘管仍低於50%。
- 就業指數：從11月的48.1%降至45.3%，反映出該板塊繼續裁員。
"U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in December, but at a slower rate compared to November. Demand showed signs of improving, while output stabilized and inputs stayed accommodative," Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, wrote in the report.
"美國製造業活動在12月再次收縮，但收縮速度較11月有所放緩。需求顯示改善跡象，產出穩定，投入保持寬鬆，" ISm製造業業務調查委員會主席蒂莫西·菲奧雷在報告中寫道。
Fiore also highlighted that de-staffing trends may soon end, and the percentage of gross domestic product contracting in manufacturing has decreased from 66% in November to 52% in December — a sign that the slowdown is becoming less broad-based.
菲奧雷還指出，裁員趨勢可能很快會結束，製造業國內生產總值收縮的百分比從11月的66%下降至12月的52%——這表明放緩的趨勢正在變得不那麼普遍。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The U.S. dollar rebounded against major currencies, supported by the improving economic data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), a proxy for dollar strength, trimmed its session losses to 0.1%.
美國美元對主要貨幣反彈，得益於經濟數據的改善。景順 Db 美元指數看好基金可交易ETF（紐交所：UUP）作爲美元強勢的替代品，將當天的損失縮減至0.1%。
The greenback has now rallied 9% since late September, significantly outperforming the broader stock market, which is up only 3% during the same period.
自9月底以來，美元已經上漲了9%，顯著跑贏了同期僅上漲3%的大盤。
The S&P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — initially rose but gave back gains, weighed down by higher Treasury yields.
標普500指數——由SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust（紐交所：SPY）跟蹤——最初上漲但隨後回吐漲幅，受到較高國債收益率的壓制。
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 4.80%, reversing overnight declines, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) slipped 0.2%, holding near nine-month lows.
30年期國債收益率上升至4.80%，扭轉了隔夜的下跌，而20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares（納斯達克：TLT）下跌了0.2%，保持在九個月低位附近。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。