Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
With expectations of stable economic growth momentum, steady bank margins and relatively benign credit costs, Maybank IB projects a stable operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively in 2025E, for the banks under its coverage. ROAEs are projected to average 10.5% and dividend yields of >5% provide support. Top picks include AMMB, CIMB and PBK.
Maybank Ib預計經濟增長勢頭穩定，銀行利潤率穩定，信貸成本相對溫和，因此預計2025E年其所涵蓋銀行的營業利潤和凈利潤將分別穩定增長5.9％。預計投資回報率平均爲10.5％，股息收益率超過5％，爲其提供了支撐。熱門精選包括 AmMB、CimB 和 pBK。
Operating and net profit growth of 5.9%
Against the group's GDP growth expectations of 4.9% in 2025E, the house forecasts domestic loan growth of 5.5%, led by a pick-up in business loans. Deposit competition is expected to be more rational, and with expectations of no OPR cuts, Maybank IB expects NIMs to be stable. NOII growth is likely to taper off amid lower forex and bond market volatility, especially
since US Fed rate cuts are expected to be more gradual. Credit costs, nevertheless, are expected to remain fairly benign amid sustained economic momentum and the availability of management overlay buffers at most banks. It also forecasts aggregate 2025E operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively, as well as an average ROE of 10.5%.
營業和凈利潤增長5.9％
相比之下，該集團在2025年E的GDP增長預期爲4.9％，而衆議院預測在商業貸款回升的帶動下，國內貸款將增長5.5％。預計存款競爭將更加理性，預計不會削減OPR，馬來亞銀行預計NIM將保持穩定。在外匯和債券市場波動性降低的情況下，NOII的增長可能會逐漸減弱，尤其是
因爲預計聯儲局的減息將更加緩慢。儘管如此，在持續的經濟勢頭和大多數銀行可用的管理層疊緩衝區的情況下，信貸成本預計將保持相當溫和。它還預測2025E的總營業利潤和凈利潤分別增長5.9％，平均投資回報率爲10.5％。
Valuations still undemanding
Banking sector PERs (on a one-year forward rolling basis) have been on the decline since hitting a peak of 14x in July 2019, just before the pandemic. Valuations recovered somewhat in 2024, and average about 10.1x currently. Even so, valuations are still below the long-term (since Jan 2009) mean of 11.3x. We find that all banking stocks are currently trading below their historical mean PER valuations, with HLBK and PBK at around -1SD to mean.
估值要求仍然不高
自2019年7月大流行前達到14倍的峯值以來，銀行業的市盈率（向前滾動一年）一直在下降。估值在2024年有所回升，目前平均值約爲10.1倍。即便如此，估值仍低於11.3倍的長期（自2009年1月以來）平均值。我們發現，目前所有銀行股的交易價格均低於其歷史平均市盈率，HLBk和PbK的平均市盈率約爲-1美元。
Top 3 picks – AMMB, CIMB & PBK
The house has a BUY call on ABMB, AMMB, CIMB, HLBK, HLFG and PBK but the top 3 picks would be AMMB, CIMB and PBK. AMMB's focus on proactive funding cost management and business banking operations should contribute to growth momentum, as it strives for higher dividend payouts. CIMB's operations in Indonesia and Singapore are strong contributors, while a turnaround of CIMB Thai would enhance earnings. Public Bank is well-managed and its MYR1.5b management overlays should keep credit costs low. The acquisition of LPI Capital enhances non-interest income and Maybank IB thinks that concerns over a share overhang are overblown.
前三名精選 — AmmB、CimB 和 PBK
該行對abmB、AmmB、CimB、HLBK、HLFG和PbK進行了買入看漲期權，但前三名的選擇將是AmMB、CimB和PbK。AMMB專注於積極的資金成本管理和商業銀行業務應有助於增強增長勢頭，同時努力提高股息支出。聯昌國際在印度尼西亞和新加坡的業務是強勁的貢獻者，而CIMB Thai的轉型將提高收益。大衆銀行管理良好，其15令吉的管理層應能保持較低的信貸成本。收購LPI Capital增加了非利息收入，Maybank Ib認爲，對股票積壓的擔憂被誇大了。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。