Cautious Outlook On Banking Sector Loan Growth Trajectory
Cautious Outlook On Banking Sector Loan Growth Trajectory
Deposits grew at a slower pace of 3.6% YoY, with a notable increase in current account savings accounts (CASA) at 5% YoY compared to fixed deposits at 4% YoY. This resulted in a higher loan-to-deposit ratio of 88%, up from 86% a year ago, and a CASA ratio of 31.3%, reflecting improved liquidity within the system.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained its OVERWEIGHT rating on the banking sector, citing healthy loan growth and stable asset quality. The research house's top picks include AMMB Holdings Bhd, Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Hong Leong Bank Bhd, which it believes provides a defensive investment option amid an optimistic outlook for the sector.
RHb投資銀行有限公司（RHb研究）維持對銀行板塊的增持評級，指出貸款增長健康且資產質量穩定。該研究機構的首選包括AMMb控股有限公司、馬來西亞聯盟銀行、CIMb集團控股有限公司和豐隆銀行，認爲這些提供了在該板塊樂觀前景下的防禦性投資選擇。
Bank Negara Malaysia's statistics for November 2024 highlighted a 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) growth in system loans, outperforming deposit growth of 3.6%. Household loans rose by 6.1% YoY, while business loans grew 5.4% YoY. Strong performances were noted in sectors such as finance (17% YoY) and wholesale & retail (9% YoY), which offset declines in agriculture (5% YoY), and education and health (3% YoY). Year-to-date (YTD), loans have grown at an annualised rate of 5.1%, aligning with RHB Research's forecast of 5%-5.5% growth for 2024.
馬來西亞國家銀行2024年11月的統計數據顯示，系統貸款同比增長5.8%，超過了存款增長3.6%。家庭貸款同比增長6.1%，而企業貸款同比增長5.4%。金融（同比17%）和批發與零售（同比9%）等板塊表現強勁，抵消了農業（同比5%）以及教育和健康（同比3%）的下降。年初至今（YTD），貸款年化增長率爲5.1%，與RHb研究2024年5%-5.5%的增長預測一致。
Despite slower system loan applications and approvals on a month-on-month (MoM) basis in November, loan disbursements showed a 1% MoM increase, suggesting a potential uptick in lending activity in the coming months. YTD, loan applications and approvals rose by 4% and 3% YoY, respectively.
儘管11月份系統貸款申請和批准環比有所放緩，但貸款發放顯示出環比1%的增長，暗示未來幾個月可能會出現貸款活動的上升。年初至今，貸款申請和批准分別同比增長4%和3%。
Deposits grew at a slower pace of 3.6% YoY, with a notable increase in current account savings accounts (CASA) at 5% YoY compared to fixed deposits at 4% YoY. This resulted in a higher loan-to-deposit ratio of 88%, up from 86% a year ago, and a CASA ratio of 31.3%, reflecting improved liquidity within the system.
存款同比增長速率較慢，爲3.6%，而活期賬戶儲蓄賬戶（CASA）在同比增長5%的情況下明顯增加，相比之下定期存款增長4%。這導致貸款與存款比率提高至88%，比一年前的86%有所上升，CASA比率爲31.3%，反映出系統內流動性改善。
Asset quality remained robust, with a system gross impaired loan (GIL) ratio declining to 1.51% in November 2024 from 1.69% the previous year. Improvements were seen in the manufacturing (13% YoY), mining (18% YoY), and education and health (13% YoY) sectors. Household GILs also fell by 6% YoY, contributing to the healthy overall credit environment.
資產質量保持強勁，系統毛不良貸款（GIL）比率在2024年11月降至1.51%，低於去年的1.69%。在製造業（同比13%）、礦業（同比18%）和教育與健康（同比13%）板塊都看到改善。家庭GIL也同比下降6%，爲健康的整體信用環境貢獻了力量。
RHB Research noted that capital adequacy ratios remained stable, with the common equity tier-1 ratio and total capital ratio standing at 14.4% and 17.9%, respectively. SME loans also showed resilience, with an 8% YoY growth and a stable GIL ratio of 2.99%.
RHb研究指出，資本充足率保持穩定，普通股一級資本比率和總資本比率分別爲14.4%和17.9%。中小板貸款也顯示出韌性，年同比增長8%，且GIL比率穩定在2.99%。
The research house believes the banking sector's fundamentals remain solid, driven by robust loan growth and healthy asset quality. However, they caution that the loan growth trajectory will depend on the broader economic environment and lending activity in the coming months.
研究機構認爲，銀行板塊的基本面仍然穩健，主要受強勁的貸款增長和健康的資產質量驅動。然而，他們警告稱，貸款增長的軌跡將取決於未來幾個月的更廣泛經濟環境和放貸活動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
