Jimmy Carter's Complex Economic Legacy: High Inflation, But Effective, Hawkish Fed Under Volcker
Jimmy Carter's Complex Economic Legacy: High Inflation, But Effective, Hawkish Fed Under Volcker
President Jimmy Carter, who died at his home on Sunday at age 100, brought a political outsider status to Washington, D.C. during a period of immense distrust in government.
卡特總統於週日去世,享年100歲,他在華盛頓特區的政治外來者身份出現在一個對政府極度不信任的時期。
There was the Watergate scandal, high inflation, mass protests due to the Vietnam War, high government spending and loose monetary policy.
那時有水門事件、嚴重通貨膨脹、因越戰引發的大規模抗議、政府高支出和寬鬆貨幣政策。
Carter, a Georgian native who won the White House in 1976, inherited an economy reeling from a recession and subsequent inflation proved disastrous for his 1980 reelection bid.
卡特是一位喬治亞州土生土長的人,他在1976年贏得了白宮,接手時正面臨着經濟因衰退而大受衝擊,隨之而來的通貨膨脹對他1980年的連任買盤造成了災難性的影響。
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, inflation neared 6% in 1976 before Carter's presidency began.
根據聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的數據,1976年通貨膨脹接近6%,而卡特的總統任期剛開始。
Carter then presided over 6.5%, 7.5%, 11.3% and 13.5% inflation in successive years. Economists consider 2% to be a healthy rate of inflation.
卡特隨後分別經歷了6.5%、7.5%、11.3%和13.5%的通貨膨脹,經濟學家認爲2%是一個健康的通貨膨脹率。
"In the last 10 years, in our attempts to protect ourselves from inflation, we've developed attitudes and habits that actually keep inflation going once it has begun," the 39th U.S. President said in 1978.
「在過去10年中,爲了保護自己免受通貨膨脹的影響,我們發展出了一些態度和習慣,一旦通貨膨脹開始,這些態度和習慣實際上會保持通貨膨脹的持續,」第39任美國總統在1978年說道。
"Most companies raise their prices because they expect costs to rise. Unions call for large wage settlements because they expect it to happen, and once it's started, wages and prices chase each other up and up. It's like a crowd standing at a football stadium. No one can see any better than when everyone is sitting down, but no one is willing to be the first to sit down."
「大多數公司提高價格是因爲他們預計成本會上升。工會則看漲,要求大幅度的工資結算,因爲他們預計會發生這種情況,而一旦開始,工資和價格就會相互追趕,層層升級。這就像一群人站在足球場上,大家坐下去時沒人能看得更清楚,但也沒有人願意第一個坐下。」
In 1979, Carter nominated Paul Volcker, then the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to chair the Federal Reserve. Volcker hawkishly shaped monetary policy by hiking the federal funds rate from 10% to nearly 18%.
1979年,卡特提名當時紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長保羅·沃爾克擔任聯邦儲備委員會主席。沃爾克通過將聯邦基金利率從10%提高到近18%以鷹派態度制定貨幣政策。
The economy then entered a recession as the unemployment rate neared 8%.
經濟隨後進入衰退,失業率接近8%。
That year, Carter was also dealing with the Iranian Revolution. From April 1979 to November 1980, the price of oil spiked over 130%, per the Energy Information Administration. This worsened inflation and created "stagflation," an increase in prices and unemployment due to a negative supply shock.
那一年,卡特還在處理伊朗革命。從1979年4月到1980年11月,依據能源信息管理局的數據,油價上漲了超過130%。這加劇了通貨膨脹,並造成了"滯漲",即因負供應衝擊導致的物價和失業率上升。
Carter faced a primary challenge from Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, which he won decisively. But he fared much worse in the general election, suffering a landslide loss to then-California Governor Ronald Reagan. Reagan, a Republican, carried 44 states and won the popular vote by nearly 10%.
卡特在馬薩諸塞州參議員泰德·肯尼迪的初選挑戰中獲勝,但在大選中表現得很糟,遭遇了加州時任州長羅納德·里根的慘敗。里根作爲一名共和黨人,贏得了44個州的支持,並以近10%的優勢贏得了普選。
Volcker's monetary policy and the induced recession did not lend Carter any electoral help. Volcker's rate hikes continued during the Reagan administration. They went as high as 21% leading to a prolonged recession in 1981 and 1982.
沃爾克的貨幣政策和引發的衰退並沒有給卡特帶來選舉上的幫助。沃爾克的加息在里根政府期間持續進行,利率最高達到21%,導致1981年和1982年長期衰退。
Still, economists credit Volcker for the historic disinflation and end of high inflation expectations. Inflation remained below 6%, usually hovering around 2%, for several decades following the 1980s.
儘管如此,經濟學家們還是認爲沃爾克對歷史性的去通貨膨脹和高通脹預期的結束功不可沒。1980年代之後幾十年內,通貨膨脹率一直低於6%,通常徘徊在2%左右。
Historians have increasingly reevaluated Carter's presidency. Today, they acknowledge the long-term significance of his decisions despite his administration's unpopularity.
歷史學家們日益重新審視卡特的總統任期。今天,他們承認儘管他的政府不受歡迎,但他的決策具有長期意義。
Carter's appointing of Volcker as Fed chair was politically costly but is considered a crucial step in curbing historic inflation.
卡特任命沃爾克爲聯儲局主席在政治上代價高昂,但被認爲是遏制歷史性通貨膨脹的關鍵步驟。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。