Top Glove Confident Of A Turnaround In 2025
Top Glove Confident Of A Turnaround In 2025
Top Glove's 1QFY25 core net loss of MYR5.8m was in line says Maybank IB, after the glove maker released its latest earnings report. The house noted that the first quarter plant utilisation rate (UR) improved to 66% (from 60% in 4QFY24), but blended ASP declined by -2% QoQ.
在這家手套製造商發佈最新業績後，Maybank Ib表示，Top Glove的 1QFY25 核心淨虧損爲580萬馬幣。該公司指出，第一季度工廠利用率（UR）提高到66％（從 4QFY24 的60％），但混合ASP環比下降了-2％。
Maybank said Top Glove said it is confident of a turnaround in FY25E on better sales volume and ASP, the house however is maintaining its FY25-27E earnings forecast and MYR1.08 TP on 1.8x CY26E P/B. It also reiterates a SELL noting that the positives have been more than priced in.
馬來亞銀行表示，Top Glove表示，由於銷量增加，它有信心 FY25E 將出現轉機，但該公司維持其 FY25-27E 收益預測和1.08馬幣的目標價爲1.08馬幣 CY26E 市盈率。它還重申了賣出，指出利好因素已超過定價。
1QFY25: lower core net loss
Excluding MYR11.3m in non-operational net positives (such as fair value gain, unrealized forex gain, and PPE write-off), TOPG's 1QFY25 core net loss was MYR5.8m, versus our and consensus FY25E net profit forecasts of MYR124m and MYR139m, respectively. 1QFY25 core net loss was due to realised forex losses and the partial recognition of higher ASPs during the
preceding quarter (Sep-Nov 2024). However, we expect stronger earnings ahead on higher plant UR and ASPs from increased US orders.
1QFY25：較低的核心淨虧損
不包括1130萬令吉的非運營凈利潤（例如公允價值收益、未實現外匯收益和個人防護裝備註銷），TOPG的 1QFY25 核心淨虧損爲580萬令吉，而我們和共識的 FY25E 凈利潤預測分別爲12400萬令吉和13900萬令吉。1QFY25 核心淨虧損是由於已實現的外匯虧損以及部分確認了更高的ASP
上一季度（2024 年 9 月至 11 月）。但是，我們預計，由於美國訂單的增加，工廠毛利率和ASP的增加，未來收益將更強。
Key highlights from 1QFY25 results concall
1QFY25 sales volume rose 16% QoQ, while ASP declined 2% QoQ to ~USD19.3/k pcs. TOPG expects ASP to rise to USD21-22/k pcs from Mar 2025 (vs. our FY25E ASP assumption of USD22/k pcs) as pre-higher US tariff stocks deplete. Management projects sales to grow as orders from US shift to Malaysia due to higher tariffs on China-made gloves from Jan 2025.
TOPG plans to increase capacity to 70b pcs p.a. (from 64b presently) by reopening idle plants, with current UR at 70%. It also aims to expand into Vietnam, producing both natural rubber and nitrile gloves.
1QFY25 結果發佈會的主要亮點
1QFY25 的銷量環比增長了16％，而ASP同比下降了2％，至約19.3美元/千美元。TOPG預計，隨着美國關稅上調前庫存的枯竭，ASP將從2025年3月起升至21-22萬美元/千美元（而我們的 FY25E ASP假設爲22美元/千美元）。管理層預計，由於從2025年1月起對中國製造的手套徵收更高的關稅，訂單從美國轉移到馬來西亞，銷售額將增長。
TOPG計劃通過重新開放閒置工廠將產能從目前的640噸提高到每年700噸，目前的產能爲70％。它還旨在向越南擴張，生產天然橡膠和丁腈手套。
Uncertainty remains on demand from non-US markets
Maybank IB has maintained its earnings forecasts but remains concerned on the glove maker's exposure to the non-US markets, which accounted for 82% of its 1QFY25 sales volume (-2 ppt QoQ, compared to pre-pandemic level of 76%). The research house also expects Top Glove's Chinese counterparts to divert their US sales to these markets starting Jan 2025.
非美國市場的需求仍然存在不確定性
Maybank Ib維持了其收益預期，但仍對這家手套製造商在非美國市場的敞口感到擔憂，非美國市場的敞口占其 1QFY25 銷售量的82％（季度環比爲-2個百分點，而疫情前的水平爲76％）。該研究機構還預計，從2025年1月開始，Top Glove的中國同行將把美國的銷售轉移到這些市場。
The house believes for TOPG, regaining previous US customers or securing new ones may take up to six months due to the customers' audit process. Elsewhere, TOPG's proposed 1-for-20 bonus issue of up to 406m warrants (exercise price: MYR1.27/sh) is slated to be listed by Feb 2025
衆議院認爲，對於TOPG而言，由於客戶的審計程序，重新獲得以前的美國客戶或獲得新客戶可能需要長達六個月的時間。在其他方面，TOPG提議的每20份1比20的紅利發行高達40600萬份認股權證（行使價：每股1.27令吉）定於2025年2月上市
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
