Cautious Outlook For Auto In 2025, TIV Forecast Of 730k Unit
Cautious Outlook For Auto In 2025, TIV Forecast Of 730k Unit
Generally, RHB said the performances of the auto sector players met expectations, as both SIME and MBM Resources (MBM) met forecasts. Meanwhile, results from Tan Chong Motor and BAUTO fell short of estimates. SIME started off its FY25 (Jun) with a 11%YoYrise in 1QFY25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ – as expected – given higher Perodua sales volumes (the national carmaker had two planned factory maintenance shutdowns in 2Q). TCM, on the other hand, concluded its 9M24 with widening losses while BAUTO's 1HFY25 (Apr) earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery (-46% YoY).
Malaysia's first EV Proton e.MAS 7
馬來西亞首款新能源車Proton e.MAS 7
According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), November's TIV of 67.5k units brought 11M24 TIV to 731k units. While 2024 TIV growth may be flattish YoY, RHB Research in its assessment is maintaining its NEUTRAL position on the sector as it is weighting due to the industry lacking catalysts to maintain its sales momentum in 2025. The house maintains its 2025 TIV forecast at 730k units.
根據馬來西亞汽車協會（MAA）的數據，11月份的TIV爲6.75萬台，使得2023年累計TIV達到73.1萬台。雖然2024年的TIV增長可能在同比上持平，RHb研究在評估中對該行業板塊保持了中立的態度，因爲行業缺乏維持2025年銷售勢頭的催化劑。該機構維持2025年TIV預測爲73萬台。
In November, the MAA recorded a TIV of 67.5k units, which took YTD TIV to 731k units – up 1.4% YoY from 11M23's numbers. TIV weakened MoM in November, with the major carmakers charting softer numbers. This was led by Toyota, which saw a 6.7% MoM decline in sales volume, followed by Perodua (-5.7%) and Proton (-5.0%). Honda, meanwhile, recorded a 12.7% MoM rise. YTD, Perodua has sold close to 326k units and is well on course to surpass its 2023 sales level of 330,325 units, which will mark another record-breaking year for the national carmaker. Total production volume or TPV fell 14% MoM and 10% YoY to 60.9k units in November, bringing 11M24 TPV to 724.8k (+2.3% YoY) . The MoM decline was seen across the major marques – Proton (-21%), Perodua (-9%), Toyota (-19%) and Honda (-7%).
在11月，MAA記錄的TIV爲6.75萬台，使得今年迄今的TIV達到73.1萬台，比2022年11月份同比增長1.4%。11月份，TIV環比弱於上月，主要汽車製造商的銷量數字也有所減弱。豐田銷售量環比下降了6.7%，其次是Perodua（-5.7%）和Proton（-5.0%）。而本田的銷量則環比上漲了12.7%。截至目前，Perodua的銷量接近32.6萬台，並有望超過2023年的銷售水平330,325台，這將標誌着該國汽車製造商的又一年破紀錄的業績。11月份，總生產量（TPV）環比下降14%，同比下降10%，達到6.09萬台，使得2023年11月份TPV爲72.48萬（同比增長2.3%）。主要品牌的環比下降情況如下：Proton（-21%），Perodua（-9%），豐田（-19%）和本田（-7%）。
Generally, RHB said the performances of the auto sector players met expectations, as both SIME and MBM Resources (MBM) met forecasts. Meanwhile, results from Tan Chong Motor and BAUTO fell short of estimates. SIME started off its FY25 (Jun) with a 11%YoYrise in 1QFY25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ – as expected – given higher Perodua sales volumes (the national carmaker had two planned factory maintenance shutdowns in 2Q). TCM, on the other hand, concluded its 9M24 with widening losses while BAUTO's 1HFY25 (Apr) earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery (-46% YoY).
總體而言，RHb表示汽車行業參與者的表現符合預期，因爲SIME和MBm資源（MBM）均達到了預測。而Tan Chong汽車和BAUTO的結果則未達到預期。SIME在其2025財年（六月）開始時，第一季度實現了11%的同比增長，主要得益於UMW的數字被合併到其底線。MBM的凈利潤環比改善，正如預期，因爲Perodua的銷售量增加（該國製造商在第二季度有兩次計劃的工廠維護停工）。然而，TCm在其2024年9個月結束時虧損擴大，而BAUTO的2025財年上半年（四月）盈利同比下降了42%，由於銷售交付疲軟（同比下降46%）。
For 2025, the house forecasts a TIV of 730k units, implying a 8% YoY decline from 2024 projection of 790k. RHB Research is anticipating a softer TIVas the high base effect kicks in, and do not see any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to be maintained at the current elevated levels. The house believes the decline will mainly be contributed by the non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition as a result of new names that have entered the fray, ie mainly the China carmakers. Some car buyers may postpone their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques – which would also destabilise the non-national segment.
對於2025年，該機構預測TIV爲73萬台，相較於2024年的79萬臺意味着同比下降8%。RHb研究預計，由於高基數效應的影響，TIV會更軟，並且不認爲2025年汽車銷售會在當前的高水平上維持。該機構認爲下降主要會由非國內品牌造成，因爲隨着新品牌的進入，競爭日益激烈，尤其是中國汽車製造商。一些汽車買家可能會推遲購買，以期待現有和新進入的非國內品牌進一步降價——這也將擾亂非國內品牌的市場。
The house remains NEUTRAL on the sector, as it remains cautious on the outlook for next year – given the ongoing price competition between the non-national marques, while softening order backlogs also indicate toned-down expectations for 2025. Top Picks are still BAUTO (attractive valuation, higher-than-sector-average dividend yield) and SIME (well-positioned for the RON95 rationalisation, with its broad EV line-up). SIME's stake in Perodua also helps to insulate the former against earnings risks, amidst intensifying competition between the non-national marques.
該機構對該板塊保持中立，因爲考慮到非本土品牌之間持續的價格競爭，明年的前景仍然謹慎，同時訂單積壓減弱也表明對2025年的預期有所降低。推薦的股票仍然是BAUTO（估值吸引，股息收益率高於行業平均水平）和SIME（在RON95合理化方面定位良好，擁有廣泛的電動車系列）。SIME在Perodua的股份也有助於抵禦收益風險，因爲非本土品牌之間的競爭日益激烈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
