MicroStrategy ETFs Face Tracking Error Because Of Volatility: Here Are The Potential Risks Investors Face
MicroStrategy ETFs Face Tracking Error Because Of Volatility: Here Are The Potential Risks Investors Face
This underscores a potential for significant deviations in leveraged ETFs like MSTU and MSTX from their intended two times daily performance, presenting heightened risks for investors.Sharp deviations have been witnessed in the exchange-traded funds tracking Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), likely stemming from the exposure to its volatile swaps and options.
我們注意到與追蹤邁克爾·塞勒的MicroStrategy Inc.（納斯達克：MSTR）相關的交易所交易基金出現了明顯的偏差，這可能源於其波動較大的互換和期權。
What Happened: The T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (BATS:MSTU) launched on Sept. 18, 2024, and Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF (NASDAQ:MSTX) launched on Aug. 14, 2024, are the two U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs which aim to provide twice the daily returns of MicroStrategy.
發生了什麼：t-Rex 2X長MSTR每日目標ETF（BATS：MSTU）於2024年9月18日推出，Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF（納斯達克：MSTX）於2024年8月14日推出，是兩隻美國上市的槓桿ETF，旨在提供MicroStrategy每日收益的兩倍。
However, these ETFs have shown significant tracking errors to their underlying asset, MicroStrategy, highlighting potential risks for investors.
然而，這些ETF展現出與其基礎資產MicroStrategy的顯著跟蹤誤差，突顯了投資者的潛在風險。
- MSTU: On No. 21, MSTU declined 25.3%, 7% less than expected given MicroStrategy's 16% drop. However, on Nov. 25, MSTU fell 11.3%, exceeding the expected 8.7% decline based on MicroStrategy's 4.4% fall.
- MSTX: This fund also displayed tracking error, most notably on Nov. 25, when it plummeted 13.4%, 4.7% more than anticipated.
- MSTU：在11月21日，MSTU下跌了25.3%，低於MicroStrategy 16%跌幅的預期7%。然而，在11月25日，MSTU下跌了11.3%，超過了基於MicroStrategy 4.4%下跌的預期8.7%跌幅。
- MSTX：該基金也顯示出跟蹤誤差，尤其是在11月25日，暴跌13.4%，超出預期的4.7%。
This underscores a potential for significant deviations in leveraged ETFs like MSTU and MSTX from their intended two times daily performance, presenting heightened risks for investors.
這凸顯了像MSTU和MSTX這樣的槓桿ETF與其預定的每日兩倍表現之間可能存在顯著偏差，爲投資者帶來了更高的風險。
Why It Matters: MicroStrategy is the only publicly listed company holding the highest Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reserves, representing 2.1% of the total 21 million supply, at a cost of $27.1 billion. The company has also raised $20 billion of debt in 2024 to buy more.
爲什麼這很重要：MicroStrategy是唯一一家公開上市的公司，持有最高數量的比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）儲備，佔總供應2100萬的2.1%，成本爲271億美元。該公司在2024年還通過債務籌集了200億美元以購買更多比特幣。
According to a report by Financial Times, Dave Mazza, the chief executive of Roundhill Investments says that the ETF tracking error is not an ETF or leveraged ETF problem, it is a MicroStrategy ETF problem. He said that these ETFs indirectly own (through saps and options) over 10% of MicroStrategy's market cap, an unprecedented level for leveraged ETFs and a significant holding even among traditional ETFs.
根據《金融時報》的報道，Roundhill Investments的首席執行官戴夫·馬紮表示，ETF跟蹤誤差並不是ETF或槓桿ETF的問題，而是MicroStrategy ETF的問題。他表示，這些ETF間接持有（通過掉期和期權）超過10%的MicroStrategy市值，這在槓桿ETF中是前所未有的水平，即使在傳統ETF中也佔有重要地位。
"Simply put, MicroStrategy is too small a company to accommodate the AUM and trading volume in these products. At this point, these ETFs have already reached the breaking point," Mazza told FT.
"簡單來說，MicroStrategy 是一家太小的公司，無法容納這些產品的資產管理規模和成交量。此時，這些 ETF 已經達到了臨界點，" 馬紮對Ft說。
According to Elisabeth Kashner, director of global fund analytics at FactSet, one solution to the tracking error is that these ETFs can stop the new unit creation and behave like a closed-end fund when swap lines are exhausted, however, this is discouraged by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC.)
根據 FactSet 全球基金分析主管伊麗莎白·卡什納的說法，解決跟蹤誤差的一個辦法是，這些 ETF 可以停止新單位的創建，並在掉期額度耗盡時表現得像一個封閉式基金，然而，這一點被證券交易委員會（SEC）所不鼓勵。
Kashner told FT that T-Rex and Defiance, the firms that operate these ETFs face a suboptimal choice. "They can limit their growth or they can live with the limited accuracy and so far they have chosen to prioritise growth over accuracy," Kashner added.
卡什納告訴 Ft，運營這些 ETF 的 T-Rex 和 Defiance 各公司面臨着一個次優選擇。"他們可以限制增長，或者接受有限的準確性，而到目前爲止，他們選擇了優先追求增長而非準確性，" 卡什納補充道。
Price Action: Shares of MicroStrategy were down over 1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has returned 385% on a year-to-date basis, compared to the Nasdaq Composite's return of 33.85% in the same period, according to Benzinga Pro data.
價格動態：根據 Benzinga Pro 數據，MicroStrategy 的股票在週二的盤前交易中下跌超過 1%。該股票年初至今回報率爲 385%，而納斯達克綜合指數在同一時期的回報率爲 33.85%。
About 12 analysts tracked by Benzinga have a consensus 'buy' rating on the stock with a price target of $449.5 per share.
根據 Benzinga 跟蹤的 12 位分析師對該股票的共識分析師評級爲"買入"，目標價格爲每股 449.5 美元。
The three most recent analyst ratings between Bernstein, TD Cowen, and Barclays imply a 62% upside for MSTR.
在伯恩斯坦、TD Cowen 和巴克萊銀行之間最新的三條分析師評級顯示 MSTR 具有 62% 的上行空間。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
