Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF Could Outshine S&P 500-Tracking SPY To Become Top Investment Vehicle But It Will Take A 'Long' Time, Says Prominent Analyst
Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF Could Outshine S&P 500-Tracking SPY To Become Top Investment Vehicle But It Will Take A 'Long' Time, Says Prominent Analyst
I mean it's not out of the question. And it's clearly dumb to underestimate btc ETFs but.. will take a long time given how linked stocks and btc price is and b) $SPY has least growth of 3 SPX ETFs. $VOO meanwhile took in $100b this year alone, 3x btc ETFs.Leading Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said Monday that Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) could surpass SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) to become the world's top exchange-traded fund, but the process could take a long time.
著名的彭博社分析師埃裏克·巴爾丘納斯週一表示，貝萊德的iShares比特幣Trust可交易ETF（納斯達克：IBIT）可能會超過SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust（紐交所：SPY），成爲全球最大的可交易ETF，但這個過程可能需要很長時間。
What Happened: Balchunas, who has over a decade of expertise analyzing ETFs, responded to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) advocate Fred Krueger's prediction that the largest Bitcoin-based fund would become the most dominant investment vehicle in five years.
發生了什麼：巴爾丘納斯在分析ETF方面擁有超過十年的專業經驗，他對比特幣（加密：BTC）支持者弗雷德·克魯格的預測做出了回應，認爲最大的比特幣基金將在五年內成爲最主導的投資工具。
"I mean, it's not out of the question. And it's clearly dumb to underestimate BTC ETFs but.. will take a long time given how linked stocks and BTC price is," Balchunas said.
"我的意思是，這並不無可能。而且顯然低估BTC ETF是很愚蠢的，但……鑑於股票和BTC價格的關聯，可能需要很長時間。"巴爾丘納斯說。
I mean it's not out of the question. And it's clearly dumb to underestimate btc ETFs but.. will take a long time given how linked stocks and btc price is and b) $SPY has least growth of 3 SPX ETFs. $VOO meanwhile took in $100b this year alone, 3x btc ETFs.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 24, 2024
我的意思是這並不無可能。而且顯然低估比特幣ETF是很愚蠢的，但……鑑於股票和比特幣的價格關聯，可能需要很長時間，b）$SPY是3個SPX ETF中增長最少的。同時$VOO今年單獨吸納了$1000億，是比特幣ETF的3倍。
— 埃裏克·巴爾丘納斯 (@EricBalchunas) 2024年12月24日
Krueger theorized that mathematically IBIT, with nearly $50 billion in assets under management currently, would top SPY—a $640 billion fund that tracks the performance of the popular S&P 500 Index—in five years.
克魯格推測，從數學上看，IBIT目前管理的資產接近$500億，五年內將超過SPY——一個價值$6400億的基金，跟蹤流行的標普500指數的表現。
He highlighted the rapid growth of Bitcoin, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50% compared to the S&P 500's 10%, with the differential widening at a 40% CAGR.
他強調了比特幣的快速增長，年複合增長率超過50%，而標普500的增長率爲10%，差距以40%的年複合增長率在擴大。
Indeed, Bitcoin's 5-year CAGR was at 67%, according to Bitbo charts, while the S&P 500 grew at an annualized rate of 16.59% over the last five years, data from S&P Global showed.
實際上，根據Bitbo圖表，比特幣的五年年複合增長率爲67%，而標普500在過去五年以16.59%的年化率增長，標普全球的數據也顯示了這一點。
"I expect AUM of IBIT to go to $200 billion next year, with just BTC outperformance and a doubling of inflows," Krueger stated.
「我預計IBIt的管理資產將在明年達到2000億美金，僅憑比特幣的超額表現和資金流入翻倍，」Krueger表示。
However, Balchuna argued that Bitcoin's outperformance would boost SPY even more due to the strong correlation between the cryptocurrency's price and several S&P 500 stocks.
然而，Balchuna認爲，比特幣的超額表現將進一步提升SPY，因爲該數字貨幣價格與幾隻S&P 500股票之間存在強相關性。
Why It Matters: Spot ETFs, tracking the price of Bitcoin, have been immensely successful since they started trading in January.
爲何重要：自1月開始交易以來，跟蹤比特幣價格的現貨ETF取得了巨大的成功。
BlackRock's IBIT has been the hot favorite, with as many as 553,464 BTCs in its custody, making it the largest Bitcoin investment vehicle, according to bitcointreasuries.net.
根據bitcointreasuries.net的數據，貝萊德的IBIt一直是熱門選擇，其保管的比特幣數量高達553,464個，使其成爲最大的比特幣投資工具。
Last month, the ETF launched options trading, with notional volume breaching the $1 billion mark on the first day of launch itself.
上個月，該ETF啓動了期權交易，首日名義成交量突破10億美金大關。
Price Action: Shares of IBIT closed 1.94% lower at $52.87 during Monday's regular session, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The SPY stock gained 0.60% to close at $594.69.
價格走勢：根據Benzinga Pro的數據，IBIt的股票在週一常規交易中收盤下跌1.94%，報每股$52.87。SPY股票上漲0.60%，收於$594.69。
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
照片提供：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。