Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.The Federal Reserve's key inflation measure came in below expectations for November, delivering welcome relief Friday to markets after the central bank warned earlier this week of mounting price pressures heading into the new year.
聯儲局的關鍵通脹指標在11月份低於預期，週五給市場帶來了可喜的緩解，此前中央銀行在本週早些時候警告進入新年時價格壓力加大。
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index grew by 2.4% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 2.3% in October, according to government data. The figure missed economist forecasts of 2.5%, yet it marked the second consecutive monthly increase in this key inflation measure.
根據政府數據，個人消費支出價格指數在2024年11月同比增長2.4%，高於10月的2.3%。這一數字未達到經濟學家的2.5%的預測，但這標誌着這一關鍵通脹指標連續第二個月增長。
On a monthly basis, the PCE index advanced 0.1%, decelerating from October's 0.2%.
從月度來看，個人消費支出指數上漲0.1%，低於十月的0.2%。
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.
剔除食品和能源等波動性元件，核心個人消費支出同比保持在2.8%，低於2.9%的預期。從月度來看，核心個人消費支出增長放緩至0.1%，低於之前的0.3%且低於0.2%的預期。
In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%. Personal spending grew by 0.4%, slightly below forecasts but in line with October's increase, signaling resilient consumer activity heading into the holiday season.
與通脹數據同時發佈的報告還顯示，個人收入在11月環比增長0.3%，低於10月0.5%的增幅，且未達到0.4%的預期。個人支出增長0.4%，略低於預測，但與10月的增幅持平，顯示出節假日期間消費者活動的韌性。
Another Reality Check For Markets
市場的另一個現實檢查
The unexpectedly softer November PCE reading could provide relief after days of heightened market volatility triggered by this week's Federal Reserve meeting.
11月意外較軟的個人消費支出讀數在本週聯儲局會議引發的市場波動幾天後可能提供緩解。
On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts and raised its inflation projections for 2025 and beyond, reinforcing its hawkish stance.
週三，聯儲局暗示將以較慢的速度減息，並上調了對2025年及之後的通脹預測，強調了其鷹派立場。
Policymakers now forecast headline PCE inflation to reach 2.5% next year, up from the September projection of 2.1%, and 2.1% in 2026, compared to the previous 2% estimate. Similarly, core PCE inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2%, and 2.1% in 2026, revised from 2%.
決策者現在預測標題PCE通脹明年將達到2.5%，高於九月份預測的2.1%，2026年爲2.1%，相比之前的2%預估。同樣，核心PCE通脹預計2025年將達到2.5%，高於2.2%，2026年爲2.1%，從2%修訂而來。
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks further dashed market hopes when he announced a "new phase" in monetary policy, signaling caution against easing further as interest rates approach the neutral level.
聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的言論進一步打擊了市場的希望，他宣佈了貨幣政策的「新階段」，發出了對進一步放鬆政策的謹慎信號，因爲利率接近中立水平。
Prior to Friday's data release, money markets had priced in 65 basis points of cumulative rate cuts for next year.
在週五數據發佈之前，貨幣市場已定價明年累計減息65個點子。
Dollar Falls, Equity Futures Trim Losses
美元下跌，股票期貨縮減損失
- The U.S. dollar index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) – tumbled 0.3%.
- Futures on major U.S. indices trimmed premarket losses, with contracts on the S&P 500 down by 0.7% at 8:35 a.m. in New York. On Thursday the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – closed 0.1% lower, bringing its cumulative decline since the Fed's meeting to over 3%.
- Gold surged by 0.6% to $2,610 per ounce.
- Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) slightly rebounded after the news to above $95,000 levels, cutting daily losses to 2%. Prior to this week's Fed meeting, the largest cryptocurrency had reached an all-time high of $108,364.
- 美元指數（DXY）——由景順Db美元指數看好基金可交易ETF（紐交所：UUP）追蹤——下跌了0.3%。
- 美國主要指數的期貨縮減了盤前損失，在紐約時間早上8:35，標普500的合約下跌0.7%。週四，標普500——由SPDR標普500指數ETF Trust（紐交所：SPY）追蹤——收盤下跌0.1%，使自聯儲局會議以來的累計跌幅超過3%。
- 黃金價格上漲0.6%，達到每盎司2610美元。
- 比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在消息發佈後小幅反彈至95,000美元以上，日損失縮減至2%。在本週的聯儲局會議之前，最大的數字貨幣曾達到108,364美元的歷史新高。
- US Stocks To Open Lower As Traders Brace For 'Triple Witching' Hour: Analyst Says End Of The Year Recovery 'Would Not Surprise Anyone'
- 美國股票預計將低開，交易者準備迎接"三重魔鬼"時刻：分析師表示年底的復甦"不會讓任何人感到驚訝"
Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自Shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
