Hawkish Powell Aside, This Analyst Expects 4 Fed Rate Cuts In 2025: Here's Why
Hawkish Powell Aside, This Analyst Expects 4 Fed Rate Cuts In 2025: Here's Why
After the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell delivered hawkish commentary along with a 25 basis points rate cut on Wednesday, the markets have slipped for two consecutive days. Even as the Fed's December dot plot projects only two additional 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, this analyst expects up to four rate cuts in 2025.
在聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾週三發表鷹派評論並降低25個點子後,市場連續兩天下跌。儘管聯儲局的12月點陣圖預測2025年僅有兩個額外的25個點子的減息,但這位分析師預計2025年將有多達四次減息。
What Happened: Chairman and Founder of Navellier & Associates, Louis Navellier said, "In my opinion, the stock and bond market reactions to the FOMC Statement, dot plot, and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference were grossly overdone and eviscerated all the stock market gains since the Presidential election."
發生了什麼:Navellier & Associates的主席兼創始人路易斯·納維利爾表示,"在我看來,股市和債券市場對FOMC聲明、點陣圖和聯儲局主席鮑威爾的新聞發佈會的反應顯然過度,抹去總統選舉以來所有的股市漲幅。"
He added that Powell's comment that the Fed's year-end inflation forecast has "kind of fallen apart" did not inspire confidence.
他補充說,鮑威爾提到聯儲局年末的通脹預測已經"有些崩潰"並沒有激發信心。
Navellier thinks that the Fed could possibly follow the falling interest rates in the Eurozone as Europe's largest economies, Germany and France, are slipping into recession.
納維利爾認爲,聯儲局可能會跟隨歐洲地區的利率下跌,因爲歐洲最大的經濟體——德國和法國正陷入衰退。
"The European Central Bank will be cutting key interest rates 4 to 5 times in 2025 until key interest rates are at 2% to 1.75%. Most Fed watchers and the FOMC itself do not see all these global dominos falling in the eurozone as the recession in its largest economy, Germany, gets worse. The second-largest economy in the eurozone, France, is also slipping into a recession."
"歐洲中央銀行將在2025年削減4到5次關鍵利率,直到關鍵利率降到2%至1.75%。大多數聯儲局觀察者和FOMC本身都沒有看到所有這些全球連鎖反應在歐元區發生,因爲其最大經濟體德國的衰退變得更加嚴重。歐元區第二大經濟體法國也正在滑向衰退。"
Why It Matters: According to Navellier, both France and Germany are in the midst of a political crisis and are "headless" until new leadership emerges. "As a result, I am expecting up to four Fed rate cuts in 2025 as collapsing interest rates in the eurozone also cause U.S. Treasury yields to decline," he said.
爲什麼重要:根據納維利爾的說法,法國和德國都正處於政治危機之中,並且在新領導層出現之前處於"無頭狀態"。"因此,我預計2025年聯儲局將減息多達四次,因爲歐元區的利率崩潰也將導致美國國債收益率下降,"他說。
Pointing out one of the first things that Powell said was "it was close" on the decision to cut or not. Navellier described this as "the most telling thing" about his speech as 95% of the market bet was for a cut.
指出鮑威爾所說的第一件事情是"很接近"決定是否減息。納維利爾形容這句話爲他演講中"最具啓示性的一點",因爲95%的市場下注是在減息。
However, he thinks the current pullback in the market could become a buying opportunity "if earnings continue to rise as expected."
然而,他認爲市場當前的回調可能成爲一個買入機會,"如果盈利繼續如預期上升。"
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) has fallen by 3.33% over the last five trading sessions, while Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) has slipped 3.06% in the same period. On a year-to-date basis, both the ETFs are up 24% and 27.72%, respectively.
價格走勢:SPDR 標普500指數ETF(紐交所:SPY)在過去五個交易日中下跌了3.33%,而納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(納斯達克:QQQ)在同一時期下跌了3.06%。從年初至今來看,這兩個ETF分別上漲了24%和27.72%。
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Photo courtesy: Federal Reserve
圖片來源:聯儲局
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。