WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):DEDICATED STRATEGIES TO ENHANCE CORE SOCIAL EDGES
WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):DEDICATED STRATEGIES TO ENHANCE CORE SOCIAL EDGES
3Q24: beat quarter due to Olympics. Total revenue of US$464m (up +5% YoY/ +3% YoY on constant currency) strongly beat consensus by 7%, due to Olympic and strong momentum of VAS. Core online ad revenue grew by +2% YoY or flattish on constant currency, with non-Alibaba and Alibaba ad revenue logging +3% YoY and -1% YoY, respectively. MAUs/DAUs were 587m/257m respectively. Adj. NPM was 30.0%, beating consensus.We deem Co. will continue to execute their high-quality user strategy, enhance core social edges in terms of hot trend and content marketing and improve operational efficiency amid cautious marketing activities under macro uncertainties. We expect divergent performances of key advertisers in the following quarters including FMCG, 3C, eCommerce, auto and game closely related to policies (trade-in and stimulus), new product launch cycles, national/ global national events and operations. Maintain HOLD but raise our TP to US$10.0/HK$79.0.
我們認爲公司將繼續執行其高質量用戶策略，增強在熱門趨勢和內容營銷方面的核心社會優勢，並在宏觀不確定性下謹慎的營銷活動中提高運營效率。我們預計在接下來的幾個季度，主要廣告主，包括快速消費品、3C、電子商務、汽車和與政策（以舊換新和刺激措施）、新產品發佈週期、國家/全球性事件和運營密切相關的遊戲，將表現出不同的業績。維持持有評級，但將我們的目標股價提高至10.0美元/79.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級關鍵因素
Strengthening core edges amid cautious advertising activities. We deem Co. will continue to prioritise engagement and acquisition of high-quality users, reinforce competitive edges in hot trend and content marketing especially new product launch, and sustain high operating efficiency with stringent cost control amid subdued marketing activities under macro uncertainties. Among key verticals, we expect divergent 4Q24 performances with i) solid handsets and 3C benefitted by new products launch, trade-in and stimulus subsidy policies; ii) strong eC due to promotion festivals; while iii) soft game on high base in 3Q24. Therefore, we slightly nudge down our FY2025/26E online ad revenue estimates by 2%/1% to mainly reflect cautious activities by key advertisers and less national/ global events. Meanwhile, we revise up our VAS revenue forecasts factoring in SVIP member packs contribution. We largely maintain our GPM and opex estimates unchanged.
在謹慎的廣告活動中強化核心優勢。我們認爲公司將繼續優先考慮高質量用戶的參與和獲取，增強在熱門趨勢和內容營銷，尤其是在新產品發佈方面的競爭優勢，並在宏觀不確定性下，通過嚴格的成本控制保持高運營效率。在關鍵垂直領域中，我們預計2024年第四季度表現出現分化：i) 受益於新產品發佈、以舊換新和刺激補貼政策的固態手機和3C；ii) 由於促銷節日的強勁電子商務；iii) 由於2024年第三季度的高基數，遊戲表現疲軟。因此，我們略微將2025/26財年的在線廣告收入預估下調2%/1%，主要反映主要廣告主的謹慎活動和較少的國家/全球事件。同時，我們修訂了我們的增值服務收入預測，考慮到SVIP會員包的貢獻。我們基本維持我們的毛利率和運營支出預估不變。
3Q24: beat quarter due to Olympics. Total revenue of US$464m (up +5% YoY/ +3% YoY on constant currency) strongly beat consensus by 7%, due to Olympic and strong momentum of VAS. Core online ad revenue grew by +2% YoY or flattish on constant currency, with non-Alibaba and Alibaba ad revenue logging +3% YoY and -1% YoY, respectively. MAUs/DAUs were 587m/257m respectively. Adj. NPM was 30.0%, beating consensus.
2024年第三季度：由於奧運會而超出預期。總收入爲46400萬美元（同比增長5%/按固定匯率同比增長3%），大幅超出市場預期7%，這得益於奧運會和增值服務的強勁勢頭。核心在線廣告收入同比增長2%或在固定匯率下持平，非阿里巴巴和阿里巴巴的廣告收入分別增長3%和下降1%。月活躍用戶數/日活躍用戶數分別爲5.87億/25700萬。調整後的凈利潤率爲30.0%，超過市場預期。
Key Risks for Rating
評級風險關鍵因素
Upsides: (i) macro and ad recovery; (ii) supportive policies; (iii) key advertisers' brand ad rebound; (iv) new ad products; and (v) novel monetisation models
上行因素：（i）宏觀和廣告復甦；（ii）支持性政策；（iii）主要廣告主品牌廣告反彈；（iv）新的廣告產品；（v）新穎的盈利模式。
Downsides: (i) marketing behaviors change of key advertisers; (ii) slower-than- expected macro and ad rebound; (iii) competition; and (iv) ADR delisting.
缺點：（i）主要廣告商的市場行爲變化；（ii）宏觀經濟和廣告反彈低於預期；（iii）競爭；以及（iv）ADR退市。
Valuation
估值
We roll over our TP to use 2025 estimates. Maintain HOLD but raise our TP to US$10.0/HK$79.0 on 5.5x 2025E adj. EPADS (estimated 5.5% 2024-2026E adj. net profit CAGR).
我們將目標價延續至2025年估計。維持持有，目標價上調至10.0美元/79.0港元，基於5.5倍的2025年調整後每股收益（預計2024-2026年調整後的凈利潤年均增長率爲5.5%）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
