SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK)2025 OUTLOOK:DECENT SHARE GAIN WHILE AWAITING XR PRODUCT CYCLE
SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK)2025 OUTLOOK:DECENT SHARE GAIN WHILE AWAITING XR PRODUCT CYCLE
Smartphone: YTD shipment of HLS/HCM were +14.6% YoY / -7.7% YoY, vs 2024 guidance of +5-10% YoY / flat YoY. While overall smartphone demand remained in-line, strong HLS was due to share gain in key US client as well as robust Android high-end demand; on the contrary, HCM shipment was much weaker especially in 2H24 and Company attributed it to a strategic shift of focus to higher-end products. For instance, Sep/Oct/Nov HCM shipments were down -29.6%/-37.5%/-28.1% YoY while ASP of HCM were up more than 30-40% YoY as a result of mix shift. This also aligns with our recent channel check that peer companies collectively reported better HCM YoY growth in 2H24.Looking into 2025, we believe Sunny Optical will benefit from a revived smartphone camera upgrade cycle led by domestic OEMs, US client share gain and the intensifying domestic NOA competition. Regarding XR, we believe it will likely serve as a key re-rate driver from mid-2025 when investors see more AR glasses rushing into market. We lift 2024- 26 EPS by 4-6% and lift TP from HK$69 to HK$77. Maintain BUY.
展望2025年，我們相信舜宇光學科技將受益於國內OEM主導的智能手機攝像頭升級週期的復甦、美國客戶市場份額的增長以及國內NOA競爭的加劇。關於XR，我們認爲從2025年中期開始，隨着投資者看到更多AR眼鏡湧入市場，它可能會成爲關鍵的再評級驅動因素。我們將2024-2026年的每股收益提高了4-6%，並將目標價從69港元上調至77港元。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級關鍵因素
2025 catalysts to watch out: during our recent roadshows, investors generally care about domestic fiscal stimulus on consumer electronics, camera upgrade, US client share gain, BYD (1211 HK/TP: HK$325.00, BUY) accelerating autonomous driving via upgrading automotive cameras, XR esp. AR AI glasses development, in regard to Sunny Optical. We feel a general positive sentiment as Company is on the recovery path, while some expressed concerns on 1) automotive lens margins outlook as domestic auto OEMs outgrowing overseas peers; 2) AR glass growth contribution may be small over 2025-26; and 3) the speculated smartphone national subsidy in 2025 may not come through as expected.
2025年值得關注的催化劑：在我們最近的路演中，投資者普遍關注消費電子的國內財政刺激、攝像頭升級、美國客戶市場份額增長、比亞迪（1211 HK/目標價：325.00港元，買入）通過升級汽車攝像頭加速自動駕駛、XR尤其是AR人工智能眼鏡的發展，針對舜宇光學科技。我們感到總體的積極情緒，因爲公司正在復甦的過程中，而一些人對以下問題表示擔憂：1）由於國內汽車OEM超過境外同行，汽車鏡頭的利潤前景；2）2025-2026年AR眼鏡增長貢獻可能較小；3）預計2025年的智能手機國家補貼可能不會按預期進行。
Smartphone: YTD shipment of HLS/HCM were +14.6% YoY / -7.7% YoY, vs 2024 guidance of +5-10% YoY / flat YoY. While overall smartphone demand remained in-line, strong HLS was due to share gain in key US client as well as robust Android high-end demand; on the contrary, HCM shipment was much weaker especially in 2H24 and Company attributed it to a strategic shift of focus to higher-end products. For instance, Sep/Oct/Nov HCM shipments were down -29.6%/-37.5%/-28.1% YoY while ASP of HCM were up more than 30-40% YoY as a result of mix shift. This also aligns with our recent channel check that peer companies collectively reported better HCM YoY growth in 2H24.
智能手機：截至目前HLS/HCm的出貨量同比增長14.6% / 下滑7.7%，而2024年的指導目標爲同比增長5-10% / 持平。儘管整體智能手機需求與預期持平，但HLS的強勁增長是由於在關鍵美國客戶的市場份額增長以及強勁的Android高端需求；相反，HCm的出貨量在2024年下半年尤其疲軟，公司將此歸因於戰略焦點轉向高端產品。例如，9月/10月/11月HCm的出貨量同比下降了-29.6%/-37.5%/-28.1%，而HCm的平均售價由於產品組合轉變上漲了30-40%以上。這也與我們最近渠道調查的結果一致，即同行公司在2024年下半年整體報告的HCm同比增長更好。
Automotive: we believe automotive will be a key growing segment in 2025 as more domestic auto OEMs enter autonomous driving or NOA race in late 2H24, which calls for acceleration of camera/LiDAR hardware adoption per car. We now forecast 2025 VLS shipment to grow +20% YoY (previously +12% YoY) and VCM revenue to grow 30% YoY (previously +20% YoY), mainly driven by more intense NOA competition such as BYD.
汽車：我們認爲汽車將成爲2025年關鍵的增長細分市場，因爲更多的國內汽車OEM將在2024年下半年進入自動駕駛或NOA競賽，這就需要每輛車加速採用攝像頭/激光雷達硬件。我們現在預測2025年VLS的出貨量將同比增長20%（之前爲12%），VCm的營業收入將同比增長30%（之前爲20%），主要受到比亞迪等NOA競爭加劇的推動。
XR: we believe from 2026, variances of edge AI devices will converge into AR AI glasses, from which the Company is able to hike on a new product cycle wave for its exposure in camera and waveguide optics. A new re-rate cycle of the Company will likely kick off from mid-2025 when more similar AR AI glasses being showcased.
XR：我們認爲從2026年開始，邊緣人工智能設備的差異將匯聚成增強現實人工智能眼鏡，因此公司能夠在其相機和波導光學領域迎來新的產品週期浪潮。公司新的重新評級週期可能在2025年中期開始，當時會展示更多類似的增強現實人工智能眼鏡。
Key Risks for Rating
評級風險關鍵因素
1) Demand miss for high spec smartphone; 2) slower-than-expected market share gain; 3) new price war initiated by peers; and 4) weak macro.
1）高規格智能手機需求不振；2）市場份額增長慢於預期；3）同行發起的新一輪價格戰；4）宏觀經濟疲軟。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
