'Santa Came Early' But Fed Brings 'Coal Next Year': Experts Weigh In On Interest Rate Cut, 2025 Projections
'Santa Came Early' But Fed Brings 'Coal Next Year': Experts Weigh In On Interest Rate Cut, 2025 Projections
The Federal Reserve announced a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its December meeting Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
聯儲局在週三的十二月會議上宣佈了廣泛預測的25個點子的減息，將聯邦基金利率降低至4.25%至4.5%的區間。
The cut is the third consecutive reduction in borrowing costs following a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25-basis-point move in November and brings rates to the lowest level since January 2023.
這是繼9月份50個點子減息和11月份25個點子減息後的第三次連續降低借貸成本，使利率降至自2023年1月以來的最低水平。
Tthe Fed now projects two additional 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, a meaningful revision from the full percentage point of cuts expected in September. Markets reacted sharply lower following the Fed's decision with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) ending the session 2.98% lower at $586.28 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closing 3.61% lower at $516.47.
聯儲局現在預計在2025年將再降兩次0.25%的利率，這是從9月份預計的減息幅度修正爲一個百分點的重大調整。在聯儲局做出決定後，市場迅速下跌，SPDR S&P 500 (紐交所:SPY) 收盤下跌2.98%，至586.28美元，納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (納斯達克:QQQ) 收盤下跌3.61%，至516.47美元。
Expert Ideas: Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said that markets are forward-looking and reacted to the Fed's 2025 projection and not the quarter-point cut that it also delivered.
北光資產管理公司的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示，市場是前瞻性的，反應的是聯儲局2025年的預測，而不是所宣佈的25個點子的減息。
"Santa came early and dropped a 25-bps rate cut in the market's stocking but accompanied it with a note saying that there would be coal next year," Zaccarelli said.
扎卡雷利說：「聖誕老人提前來了，爲市場送下了25個點子的減息，但附上一張便條，說明明年會有煤。」
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the Fed is reacting to the incoming Trump administration's policies, which it sees as most likely to boost growth and inflation, as well as tighten the job market.
聯信銀行的首席經濟學家比爾·亞當斯表示，聯儲局正在針對即將到來的特朗普政府政策做出反應，而看到這些政策最有可能推動增長和通脹，並收緊就業市場。
Trump does not have much control over the pace of rate cuts in the near term, Adams said, but "that could change in 2026 if President-elect Trump gets the Senate to confirm a new Fed chair who is more sympathetic to his policy goals."
亞當斯表示，特朗普在短期內並沒有太多控制減息步伐的能力，但「如果當選總統特朗普讓參議院確認一位更同情其政策目標的新聯儲局主席，這可能會在2026年改變。」
Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, highlighted the growing concerns around inflation and the Fed's dot-plot, which shows shallower rate cuts ahead in both 2025 and 2026.
安聯投資管理的高級投資策略師查理·裏普利強調了對通脹的日益擔憂和聯儲局的點陣圖，後者表明2025年和2026年將出現更低幅度的減息。
"The main takeaway from today's Fed meeting was that inflation risks are back, and the Fed is clearly concerned," Ripley said.
今天聯儲局會議的主要結論是通脹風險回來了，聯儲局顯然很擔憂，”裏普利說。
"The Fed has been able to maneuver 100 basis points of cuts so far in this cycle but given the trajectory of the economy and the recent uptick of inflation, it is going to be more difficult for the Fed to provide basis to continue cutting rates at the same pace," he added.
他補充道：「聯儲局在這一輪週期中已經能夠調整100個點子，但考慮到經濟的軌跡和近期通脹上升，聯儲局在繼續以相同速度削減利率方面將面臨更多困難。」
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圖片來自Shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
