Match Group Analyst Flags Tinder Woes, Industry Challenges For Stock Downgrade
Match Group Analyst Flags Tinder Woes, Industry Challenges For Stock Downgrade
The rerating reflects Carpenter's expectation for muted growth in the online dating industry in 2025 and limited visibility in the timing and magnitude of the Tinder turnaround. The analyst noted the downside is limited due to undemanding valuation, low investor expectations, dividends and share buybacks, and activism.JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter downgraded Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $40 to $33.
摩根大通分析師Cory Carpenter將Match group（納斯達克：MTCH）的評級從增持下調至中立，並將目標價從40美元下調至33美元。
Match is the leading online dating platform with an estimated ~50% share of global dating users across its portfolio of brands. Tinder is the largest and most profitable dating app globally and Hinge is the fastest-growing scaled dating brand.
Match是領先的在線約會平台，在其品牌組合中擁有約50%的全球約會用戶數。Tinder是全球最大且最盈利的約會應用程序，Hinge是增長最快的規模約會品牌。
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The rerating reflects Carpenter's expectation for muted growth in the online dating industry in 2025 and limited visibility in the timing and magnitude of the Tinder turnaround. The analyst noted the downside is limited due to undemanding valuation, low investor expectations, dividends and share buybacks, and activism.
此次重新評級反映了Carpenter對2025年在線約會行業增長乏力的預期，並且對Tinder復甦時機和幅度的可見度有限。分析師提到，由於估值不高、投資者預期低、分紅派息以及股票回購和積極投資者的存在，潛在下行空間有限。
Heading into 2024, Carpenter expected Tinder payers to stabilize as the focus shifted from price optimizations to product and marketing.
進入2024年，Carpenter預計Tinder的付費用戶將穩定，因爲關注點從價格優化轉向產品和市場營銷。
However, the Tinder turnaround has proven more difficult than expected, and much work remains to return Tinder to sustainable growth.
然而，Tinder的復甦比預期更爲困難，仍需大量工作才能使Tinder恢復可持續增長。
The analyst noted Tinder user and revenue trends need to improve for Match shares to rerate higher, which appears increasingly unlikely in 2025.
分析師指出，Tinder用戶和營業收入的趨勢需要改善，以便Match的股票評級能夠提升，而在2025年這一點似乎越來越不太可能。
Indeed, Tinder revenue and users will likely worsen before improving, with a return to growth not forecasted until 2027.
實際上，Tinder的營業收入和用戶數很可能在改善之前惡化，預計到2027年才能恢復增長。
Carpenter updated his model following the investor day last week, with his Tinder direct revenue estimate reduced by 10% in 2026. This reflects a revenue decline of 6% in 2025, flat in 2026, and up 2% in 2027. The analyst still noted Tinder stability is possible over time through AI-driven product innovation, but it remains early, and execution is critical.
卡彭特在上週投資者日後更新了他的模型，降低了他對2026年Tinder直接營業收入的估計，減少了10%。這反映出2025年營業收入下降6%，2026年持平，2027年上升2%。分析師仍然指出，通過人工智能驅動的產品創新，Tinder長期穩定是可能的，但目前仍然太早，執行至關重要。
The price target is based on nine times Carpenter's 2025E AOI of $1.3 billion, which is a discount to Grindr Inc (NYSE:GRND), which trades at 18 times, but a premium to Bumble Inc (NASDAQ:BMBL), which trades at six times.
價格目標是基於卡彭特2025年預計營業收入( AOI ) 13億美元的 девять 倍，這對比於Grindr Inc（紐交所：GRND）的18倍有所折扣，但對Bumble Inc（納斯達克：BMBL）的六倍則是溢價。
MTCH Price Action: Match Group stock is up 0.57% at $31.76 at publication Wednesday
MTCH價格動態：Match Group的股價在週三出版時上漲了0.57%，達到31.76美元。
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Photo: Mojahid Mottakin via Shutterstock
照片：Mojahid Mottakin via Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。