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Santa Claus Rally Is Facing Some 'Indigestion,' Says UBS Expert: 'The Market Is Basically Taking A Little Bit Of A Probably Well-Needed Pause'

Santa Claus Rally Is Facing Some 'Indigestion,' Says UBS Expert: 'The Market Is Basically Taking A Little Bit Of A Probably Well-Needed Pause'

聖誕老人反彈面臨一些'消化不良',瑞銀專家表示:'市場基本上在進行一次可能所需的小休息'
Benzinga ·  17:12

Michael Zinn, a senior portfolio manager at UBS Global Wealth Management, has shared his perspective on the current market dynamics as the year draws to a close.

邁克爾·津恩,瑞銀全球财富管理的高級投資組合經理,分享了他對當前市場動態的看法,因爲這一年即將結束。

What Happened: Zinn remarked that the Santa Claus rally, which typically brings positive market momentum, is experiencing some pause following a significant post-election surge.

發生了什麼:津恩提到,通常帶來積極市場動量的聖誕老人行情在經歷了大選後的顯著激增後,正在稍作停頓。

"I think we are having a little bit of indigestion," Zinn said during CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday.

「我覺得我們有點消化不良,」津恩在週二的CNBC《亞洲開口秀》中說。

"We've just seen such a surge since the election you know people are so amped up over all the drivers that have played out so well this year that I think the market is basically taking a little bit of a probably well-needed pause um which makes some sense between now and year-end."

「我們自大選以來已經看到如此激增,你知道人們對於今年表現良好的所有驅動因素興奮不已,所以我認爲市場基本上在年底之前進行了一些可能是亟需的停頓,這在現在和年底之間是有道理的。」

He expressed concerns about the market's narrow breadth, noting that despite recent pullbacks, prices continue to rise, driven mainly by AI-focused stocks. This trend, he suggested, might persist into the next year.

他對市場的狹隘範圍表達了擔憂,指出儘管近期有所回調,但價格依然在上漲,主要由人工智能相關的股票驅動。他建議這一趨勢可能會持續到明年。

Zinn highlighted that only about 40% of stocks in the S&P are trading above their 50-day moving average, even as indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ hit new highs. He pointed out that this is not a healthy combination and noted speculative behavior in options trading as a warning sign.

津恩強調,約有40%的股票在S&P 500中交易高於其50日移動平均線,即便像S&P和納斯達克這樣的指數創下新高。他指出,這並不是一個健康的組合,並提到期權交易中的投機行爲是一個警示信號。

However, he remains optimistic about the market's long-term prospects, citing supportive factors such as AI advancements, a new administration, economic growth, and potential Federal Reserve easing.

然而,他對市場的長期前景仍持樂觀態度,引用了一些支持因素,如人工智能進步、新的政府管理、經濟增長以及潛在的聯儲局放鬆政策。

Why It Matters: The Santa Claus rally is a well-documented phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final week of December into the first two trading days of January.

爲什麼這很重要:聖誕老人行情是一種衆所周知的現象,股市通常在12月的最後一週至1月的前兩天交易中看到上漲。

Historically, this period has been favorable for investors, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs during the holiday season. However, this year's rally faces challenges, as indicated by Zinn's observations.

歷史上,這個時期對投資者來說是有利的,標準普爾500指數在假期季節達到了歷史最高點。然而,正如Zinn的觀察所示,今年的反彈面臨挑戰。

Additionally, recent economic data suggests a robust holiday season, with November retail sales hitting an 11-month high, signaling strong consumer demand. This resilience in spending could potentially support market performance, despite the current "indigestion" in the rally.

此外,最近的經濟數據表明假期季節強勁,11月份的零售銷售達到了11個月的最高點,顯示出強勁的消費需求。這種消費的韌性可能會支持市場表現,儘管目前的反彈面臨 "消化不良 "。

Price Action: On Tuesday, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed 0.41% lower at $604.29 while Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed 0.44% lower at $535.80, as per Benzinga Pro data.

價格走勢:根據Benzinga Pro的數據,週二,SPDR 標普500指數ETF(紐交所:SPY)收盤下跌0.41%,報604.29美元,而納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(納斯達克:QQQ)收盤下跌0.44%,報535.80美元。

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

免責聲明:此內容部分由Benzinga Neuro生成,並由Benzinga編輯審核和發佈。

Photo courtesy: Unsplash

照片提供:Unsplash

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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