Another Tepid Year Ahead For The Technology Sector?
Another Tepid Year Ahead For The Technology Sector?
Front-end segment taking the lead. Meanwhile, sales of wafer fab equipment will remain encouraging, growing by USD6.81b to breach the USD100b mark. This reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high band width memory (HBM), driven by AI computing. 
Kenanga IB said it is maintaining its NEUTRAL recommendation on the technology sector. In the recent forecast released by SEMI, the house said it noted that there is a slowdown in growth for the sale of assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment in 2025 before picking up pace in 2026. This could allude to another year of tepid growth for the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) companies which was similarly observed this year. This supported its NEUTRAL stance for the sector in 2025.
Kenanga Ib表示，它對科技板塊保持中立的推薦。在SEMI最近發佈的預測中，該機構指出，預計2025年組裝和包裝（A&P）設備的銷售增長將放緩，直到2026年才會加速增長。這可能預示着外包半導體組裝和測試（OSAT）公司在2025年將再次出現溫和的增長，類似於今年的情況。這支持了它對該板塊在2025年的中立立場。
Premised on this, it anticipates the pace of recovery will be varied for companies across the different value chains. Thus, it views that companies well positioned in the AI-related supply chain should perform better as compared to its peers.
基於此，它預計不同價值鏈上的公司的復甦速度將各不相同。因此，它認爲在人工智能相關供應鏈中處於良好位置的公司相較於同行將表現更好。
According to SEMI, the global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers are forecasted to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026 by +7.7%yoy and +14.8%yoy respectively. This is a continuation of an expected growth of +6.5%yoy for 2024. SEMI commented that the improvement in outlook since July 2024 was mainly driven by stronger-than expected investment from China and AI-related sectors
根據SEMI的預測，原始設備製造商的整體半導體制造設備全球銷售預計將在2025年和2026年繼續增長，分別達到同比增長+7.7%和+14.8%。這也是預期2024年增長+6.5%的延續。SEMI評論稱，自2024年7月以來，前景改善主要得益於中國和人工智能相關行業意外強勁的投資。
Front-end segment taking the lead. Meanwhile, sales of wafer fab equipment will remain encouraging, growing by USD6.81b to breach the USD100b mark. This reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high band width memory (HBM), driven by AI computing.
前端市場引領潮流。與此同時，晶圓製造設備的銷售將保持樂觀，預計將增長68.1億美元，突破1000億美元大關。這反映出，受人工智能計算驅動，DRAM和高帶寬存儲（HBM）設備的投資持續強勁。
Kenanga notes that for 2025, the sale of A&P equipment is expected to grow by USD0.79b to USD5.73b, a slower pace of +16.0%yoy as compared to 2024 of +22.6%yoy. In comparison, the test equipment market was more optimistic in 2025 with sales expected to reach USD8.18b, a faster pace of USD1.04b or +14.6%yoy. All in all, the growth in the back-end segment will be supported by a gradual recovery in demand for the end markets namely mobile, automotive, and industrial as well as high-performance computing which form the backbone of AI. With the encouraging growth in the front-end segment, there should be better overall sector growth in 2026
Kenanga指出，預計2025年A&P設備的銷售將增長7.9億美元，達到57.3億美元，增速爲同比+16.0%，低於2024年的同比+22.6%。相比之下，2025年測試設備市場更加樂觀，預計銷售將達到81.8億美元，增速爲10.4億美元或同比+14.6%。總體來看，後端領域的增長將得到對移動、汽車、工業等最終市場需求逐步復甦的支持，同時高性能計算也構成了人工智能的支柱。隨着前端領域的鼓舞人心的增長，預計2026年整個板塊的增長將更好。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
