Is Plexus (NASDAQ:PLXS) A Risky Investment?
Is Plexus (NASDAQ:PLXS) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Plexus Corp. (NASDAQ:PLXS) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
一些人說,作爲投資者,波動性比債務更能反映風險,但禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地表示,'波動性遠非與風險同義'。因此,聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產相關——在評估一家公司風險時是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到,普雷克薩斯公司(納斯達克:PLXS)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。但更重要的問題是:這些債務究竟造成了多大的風險?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務在企業還清債務之前是有幫助的,無論是通過新的資本還是通過自由現金流。如果情況真的很糟,貸款人可能會控制企業。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須在低價股的情況下稀釋股東,以便將債務控制在合理範圍內。然而,通過替代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率進行增長投資的企業的極好工具。當考慮一家公司的債務水平時,第一步是將其現金和債務一起考慮。
What Is Plexus's Net Debt?
普雷克薩斯的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Plexus had debt of US$203.8m at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$387.8m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$345.1m in cash, so it actually has US$141.3m net cash.
下圖(您可以點擊以查看更詳細信息)顯示,普雷克薩斯在2024年9月底時的債務爲20380萬美元,相較於一年前的38780萬美元有所減少。然而,其資產負債表顯示它持有34510萬美元的現金,因此實際上它擁有14130萬美元的淨現金。
How Healthy Is Plexus' Balance Sheet?
普雷克薩斯的資產負債表健康嗎?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Plexus had liabilities of US$1.64b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$185.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$345.1m and US$742.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$741.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
從最新的資產負債表數據來看,我們可以看到普雷克薩斯有16.4億美元的負債在12個月內到期,18570萬美元的負債在此之後到期。另一方面,它有34510萬美元的現金和74290萬美元的應收款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收款的總和多74100萬美元。
Given Plexus has a market capitalization of US$4.50b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Plexus boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
考慮到普雷克薩斯的市值爲45億美元,很難相信這些負債會造成太大威脅。但負債確實足夠,因此我們會建議股東繼續關注資產負債表。儘管其負債不容小覷,普雷克薩斯仍然擁有淨現金,所以可以說它並沒有沉重的債務負擔!
But the bad news is that Plexus has seen its EBIT plunge 14% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Plexus's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
但壞消息是,普雷克薩斯的息稅前利潤(EBIT)在過去的12個月內下降了14%。如果這種收益下降的速度繼續下去,公司可能會陷入困境。分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是重點。但未來的收益,遠比其他任何因素,更能判斷普雷克薩斯維持健康資產負債表的能力。所以如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,展示分析師的利潤預測。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Plexus may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. In the last three years, Plexus's free cash flow amounted to 47% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最後,一家公司只能用現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。普雷克薩斯在資產負債表上雖然有淨現金,但查看業務將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其需要和管理債務的能力。在過去的三年中,普雷克薩斯的自由現金流佔其EBIT的47%,低於我們的預期。這樣的現金轉換能力較弱使得處理負債變得更困難。
Summing Up
總結
Although Plexus's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$141.3m. So we don't have any problem with Plexus's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Plexus you should be aware of.
儘管普雷克薩斯的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但由於其總負債,我們清楚地看到它擁有14130萬美元的淨現金。因此,我們對普雷克薩斯的債務使用沒有任何問題。資產負債表顯然是在分析債務時需要關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。舉個例子:我們發現普雷克薩斯有1個警示信號,你應該注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。
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