share_log

Energy Sector: Correction or Boom? What to Expect in 2025

Energy Sector: Correction or Boom? What to Expect in 2025

能源板塊:調整還是繁榮?2025年會有什麼期待?
The Motley Fool ·  12/17 09:30

If we gauge the performance of the Canadian energy sector from the energy composite index, the 2024 performance can be divided into two segments. The performance was quite decent in the first quarter, but since hitting the peak in April, the index has mostly hovered around a mean value, and the overall trend has been downward. The index has slumped over 11% since the peak in April.

如果我們通過能源綜合指數來衡量加拿大能源板塊的表現,2024年的表現可以分爲兩個部分。第一季度的表現相當不錯,但自4月達到峯值以來,該指數大多在一個平均值附近徘徊,整體趨勢向下。自4月峯值以來,該指數已下跌超過11%。

Unfortunately, things don't look that great for 2025 as well. The chances of oil prices going down further are high, which may lead to a correction in the sector.

不幸的是,2025年的前景也不樂觀。油價進一步下跌的可能性很高,這可能導致該板塊的修正。

An upstream energy company

一家上游能源公司

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) is one of the largest energy companies in Canada by several metrics. It's one of the few large-cap stocks close to or beyond the $100 billion mark (with its current market cap of around $97 billion). It also boasts the largest crude oil and natural gas reserves in the country, the largest crude oil producer, and the second biggest natural gas producer.

加拿大自然資源(TSX:CNQ)是加拿大最大的能源公司之一,按照多個指標來衡量。它是爲數不多的 大盤股票 接近或超過1000億(目前市值約爲970億)。它還擁有全國最大的原油和天然氣儲備,是最大的原油生產商,也是第二大天然氣生產商。

As an upstream company, Canadian Natural Resources is quite vulnerable to oil price dips, but historically, the company has survived such slumps quite well. One reason behind this is the company's low-cost production, which gives it more leeway.

作爲一家上游公司,加拿大自然資源對油價下跌相當脆弱,但歷史上,該公司在這樣的低迷中表現得相當不錯。其背後的一個原因是公司的低成本生產,使其有更多的餘地。

But the market dynamics are still taking their toll on the stock. It has fallen 18% from the yearly peak. If a correction happens, the stock may fall even harder. One benefit would be its yield rising to mouthwatering levels. It's already at 4.8%.

但市場動態仍在對該股票產生影響。它已從年度峯值下跌了18%。如果出現修正,股票可能會跌得更狠。一個好處是其收益率將飆升至令人垂涎的水平。目前已達到4.8%.

An integrated energy company

一家綜合能源公司

Integrated energy companies like Suncor (TSX:SU) may react differently to the same kind of headwinds. First, they have more room to absorb the negative impact of low oil prices. They can manage the profit margin and expenses by making adjustments to their midstream and, most importantly, downstream businesses.

像Suncor(TSX:SU)這樣的綜合能源公司可能會對同類逆風反應不同。首先,他們有更多的空間來吸收低油價的負面影響。他們可以通過調整中游和最重要的下游業務來管理利潤率和支出。

This may be why Suncor stock is handling the current index slump quite well. It's plateauing but not falling yet. But that doesn't mean it would be able to sustain low oil prices and demand in the long term. The company has already slashed its dividends once during the pandemic.

這可能是爲什麼Suncor股票在當前指數下滑中表現得相當不錯。它在平台期,但尚未下跌。但這並不意味着它能夠在長期內維持低油價和需求。該公司在疫情期間已經削減了分紅派息一次。

It may do so again if the market is weak enough. Also, as an integrated company, Suncor is also vulnerable to downstream-impacting factors like electric vehicles gaining more traction.

如果市場足夠疲弱,它可能會再次這樣做。此外,作爲一家綜合公司,Suncor也容易受到影響下游的因素,例如新能源汽車獲得更多關注。

A midstream energy company

一家中游能源公司

Midstream companies, especially giants like Enbridge (TSX:ENB), might fare well even if the energy sector enters a correction phase. The company already has a history of contrarian performance. It slumped when the rest of the energy sector was bullish, and now, when the sector/index is relatively weak, the stock is going up at a decent pace.

中游公司,尤其是像恩橋(TSX:ENB)這樣的巨頭,即使在能源板塊進入修正階段,也可能表現良好。該公司已經有逆勢表現的歷史。當其他能源板塊看好的時候,它曾經下跌,而現在,當這個板塊/指數相對疲弱時,股票以相當不錯的速度上漲。

Part of the reason behind this midstream "safety" is that as a pipeline company, its revenue is tied to the contracts upstream companies make with it. These contracts are relatively long-term and don't change much, regardless of the oil prices.

這種中游「安全感」的部分原因是,作爲一家管道公司,其營業收入與上游公司與其簽訂的合同掛鉤。這些合同相對長期,並且不受油價影響而變化。

A significant slump in oil demand and smaller quantities transporting via Enbridge's pipelines may impact its top line, but otherwise, the company is safe. It has an additional cushion in the form of a gas utility business.

對WTI原油需求的大幅下滑和通過恩橋管道運輸的小量可能會影響其營收,但從其他方面來看,該公司是安全的。它還有一個燃氣公用事業業務作爲額外的緩衝。

Foolish takeaway

愚蠢的看法

The three energy stocks may behave differently in the correction mode. They will also behave quite differently in a bullish market, but the chances of such a market manifesting are low compared to a correction (that seems more likely).

這三隻 能源股票 在調整模式下,它們可能表現得各不相同。在看好的市場中,它們的表現也會有所不同,但相比於調整,這樣的市場出現的機會較小(似乎更可能出現調整)。

However, a correction may not be a bad thing, especially if you are eyeing some of these energy stocks for their dividends, as it may allow you to lock in a high yield.

然而,調整可能並不是壞事,特別是如果你關注這些能源股票的分紅派息,因爲這可能讓你獲得高收益。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論