Building Material Sector To Benefit From US-China Trade Tiff
Building Material Sector To Benefit From US-China Trade Tiff
The research house is particularly positive on the aluminium sector, given the expected recovery in aluminium prices, bolstered by growing demand from green industries. RHB Research's economics team anticipates a 75 basis point cut in the US Federal Funds Rate in 2025, which could support an upward trend in aluminium prices. PMAH is expected to benefit from higher global aluminium prices, the removal of the 13% tax rebate on aluminium exports by China, and increased demand from non-Chinese manufacturers.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained its OVERWEIGHT stance on the building materials sector, with Malayan Cement (LMC) $MCEMENT (3794.MY)$ as its top pick. The research house remains optimistic about the aluminium and cement sectors, which it believes are well-positioned to benefit from heightened US-China trade tensions and strong demand from green industries.
RHb投資銀行有限公司（RHb研究）對建築材料板塊維持超配的態度，以馬來西亞水泥（LMC）作爲首選。 $MCEMENT (3794.MY)$ 該研究機構對鋁和水泥行業保持樂觀，認爲它們能夠從日益緊張的美中貿易關係以及綠色行業的強勁需求中受益。
Aluminium is expected to see gains from increased global demand, while the cement sector remains supported by strong ties with construction and property markets. RHB Research highlights that LMC stands to benefit from the ongoing construction and property activities, especially with its dominance in West Malaysia, and potential expansion into East Malaysia, which could further boost its national market share.
預計鋁將從全球需求的增加中獲益，而水泥行業則因與建築和房地產市場的緊密聯繫而保持支持。RHb研究強調，LMC將從正在進行的施工和房地產活動中受益，特別是在其在馬來西亞西部的主導地位，以及潛在的向馬來西亞東部擴展，這可能進一步提升其在國家市場的份額。
In its third-quarter results for 2024 (Q324), Press Metal (PMAH) $PMETAL (8869.MY)$ exceeded expectations, while LMC's performance was in line with projections. PMAH reported a core profit of RM475.8 million, which represents a 7% decline from the previous quarter but a 49% year-on-year increase. The company's earnings growth was primarily driven by stronger contributions from its associates. Meanwhile, LMC experienced solid double-digit growth, with a 29.3% year-on-year increase in sales from aggregates and concrete. Higher selling prices helped offset weaker cement sales. Following the results, RHB Research raised PMAH's earnings forecasts for FY24F-26F by 14.4%, 12.2%, and 7.5%, respectively, after revising its assumptions on associate contributions, cost structures, and the USD/MYR exchange rate. LMC's forecasts, however, remain unchanged.
在其2024年第三季度的業績中（Q324），壓鑄金屬（PMAH） $PMETAL (8869.MY)$ 超出預期，而LMC的表現與預測一致。PMAH報告核心利潤爲RM47580萬，較上季度下降7%，但同比增長49%。該公司的收益增長主要受到其關聯公司的強勁貢獻推動。與此同時，LMC實現了兩位數的穩健增長，銷售額同比增長29.3%。較高的銷售價格幫助抵消了較弱的水泥銷售。在業績發佈後，RHb研究分別將PMAH2024-2026財年的盈利預測上調了14.4%、12.2%和7.5%。而LMC的預測則保持不變。
The research house is particularly positive on the aluminium sector, given the expected recovery in aluminium prices, bolstered by growing demand from green industries. RHB Research's economics team anticipates a 75 basis point cut in the US Federal Funds Rate in 2025, which could support an upward trend in aluminium prices. PMAH is expected to benefit from higher global aluminium prices, the removal of the 13% tax rebate on aluminium exports by China, and increased demand from non-Chinese manufacturers.
該研究機構特別看好鋁行業，因預期鋁價格將復甦，並受到綠色行業需求增長的支持。RHb研究的經濟團隊預計，2025年美國聯邦基金利率將下調75個點子，這可能支持鋁價格的上漲趨勢。PMAH預計將受益於全球鋁價的上漲，中國取消對鋁出口的13%的稅收減免，以及非中國製造商需求的增加。
Alumina prices, which had remained high at US$695.40 per tonne in Q424, are a concern for PMAH, although the house expects a normalisation in 2025 with new projects in Indonesia and India starting operations in the first half of the year. Moreover, PMAH's stake in Bintan Alumina Indonesia, which acts as a natural hedge, is expected to help mitigate the impact of rising alumina costs.
鋁土礦的價格在2024年第四季度保持在每噸695.40美元的高位，這讓PMAH感到擔憂，儘管該公司預計2025年印度尼西亞和印度的新項目將在上半年開始運營，從而實現正常化。此外，PMAH在印尼賓坦鋁土礦的股份作爲自然對沖，預計將有助於減輕鋁土礦成本上升的影響。
RHB Research also sees stability in bulk cement prices, which have been sustained at RM380 per tonne since July 2023. This price stability is expected to persist, supported by the demand for key infrastructure projects, such as the Penang Light Rail Transit (LRT) and West Ipoh Span Expressway. With a range of infrastructure projects planned across the country, cement producers are expected to benefit significantly from these initiatives.
RHb Research還看到散裝水泥價格的穩定，自2023年7月以來每噸保持在380令吉。預計這一價格穩定性將持續，因對關鍵基礎設施項目的需求支持，例如檳城輕軌交通（LRT）和西怡保跨省公路。隨着全國範圍內計劃的基礎設施項目，水泥製造商預計將從這些舉措中顯著受益。
The research house notes that risks to this optimistic outlook include higher-than-expected raw material costs and a sharp deterioration in global economic conditions, which could dampen construction activity and reduce demand for aluminium and cement.
研究機構指出，這一樂觀前景面臨的風險包括原材料成本高於預期以及全球經濟狀況急劇惡化，這可能會抑制施工活動並減少對鋁和水泥的需求。
RHB's top pick, Malayan Cement, has a BUY rating with a target price of RM6.59.
RHB的首選股馬來西亞水泥，給予買入評級，目標價爲6.59令吉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
