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Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says "Nvidia GB300/B300 DrMOS Testing Update: Severe Thermal Issues With AOS, MPS Order Trends May Be Better-Than-Feared" - Medium

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says "Nvidia GB300/B300 DrMOS Testing Update: Severe Thermal Issues With AOS, MPS Order Trends May Be Better-Than-Feared" - Medium

分析師郭明錤表示"英偉達GB300/B300 DrMOS測試更新:AOS和MPS訂單趨勢可能好於預期的嚴重熱問題" - Medium
Benzinga ·  12/16 23:28

Event:
The DrMOS chips currently being tested for the GB300/B300 system are AOS's 5x5 and MPS's 5x6. My latest supply chain survey indicates that AOS's chips were experiencing severe thermal issues.

事件:
目前正在爲GB300/B300系統測試的DrMOS芯片是AOS的5x5和MPS的5x6。我的最新供應鏈調查顯示,AOS的芯片正面臨嚴重的熱管理問題。

Analysis:
1. Nvidia prioritized testing AOS's 5x5 DrMOS for two reasons: 1) To strengthen its bargaining power against MPS to lower costs, and 2) AOS has more excellent expertise in the design and production of 5x5 DrMOS.
2. The chip itself may not solely cause the thermal issue but could also result from insufficient optimization in other designs, such as system thermal management.
3. If the issue remains unresolved, Nvidia may take proactive measures to avoid delays in GB300/B300 mass production. These could include 1) Engaging alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers, such as requesting test samples from MPS, and 2) Accelerating testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS. Such actions could dampen the market's highly optimistic outlook on AOS's future orders in the short term.
4. 5x6 DrMOS comes with higher costs but offers better thermal performance. If the thermal issue with 5x5 DrMOS persists, the likelihood of Nvidia switching to 5x6 DrMOS will increase, potentially benefiting MPS, which has a technology advantage in the 5x6 design.

分析:
1. 英偉達優先測試AOS的5x5 DrMOS有兩個原因:1) 加強與MPS的談判能力以降低成本,2) AOS在5x5 DrMOS的設計和生產方面有更優秀的專業知識。
2. 芯片本身可能並不是導致熱管理問題的唯一原因,還可能是其他設計(如系統熱管理)優化不足造成的。
3. 如果問題仍未解決,英偉達可能會採取主動措施以避免GB300/B300量產的延遲。這些措施可能包括:1) 尋找替代的5x5 DrMOS供應商,比如向MPS請求測試樣品,2) 加快對MPS的5x6 DrMOS的測試。這些措施可能會抑制市場對AOS未來訂單的高度樂觀預期。
4. 5x6 DrMOS成本更高,但提供更好的熱性能。如果5x5 DrMOS的熱管理問題持續存在,英偉達轉向5x6 DrMOS的可能性將增加,這可能會使具備5x6設計技術優勢的MPS受益。

Conclusion:
With GB300/B300 still some time away from mass production, This event doesn't mean that AOS can't eventually benefit from GB300/B300. However, to avoid repeating delays seen with GB200/B200, Nvidia's efforts to seek alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers or to accelerate testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS could impact the market's high expectations for AOS's orders in the near term.

結論:
由於GB300/B300離大規模生產還有一段時間,這個事件並不意味着AOS無法最終受益於GB300/B300。然而,爲了避免重演GB200/B200所出現的延遲,英偉達尋求替代5x5 DrMOS供應商的努力或加速測試MPS的5x6 DrMOS可能會影響市場對AOS近期訂單的高期望。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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