CF Industries Carbon Capture Credits EBITDA Potential Could Be As High As $50 Million: Analyst
CF Industries Carbon Capture Credits EBITDA Potential Could Be As High As $50 Million: Analyst
According to Owen, CF, compared to other fertilizer companies, has historically outperformed in terms of total shareholder return, indicating strong capital allocation and consistent shareholder value creation.Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen initiated coverage on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), with a price forecast of $114.
Oppenheimer分析師Kristen Owen對CF工業控股公司（紐交所代碼：CF）的覆蓋進行了啓動，價格預測爲114美元。
The analyst suggests that while fertilizer affordability may be challenging in 2025, the ammonia market presents a promising long-term growth opportunity beyond agriculture.
分析師建議，雖然2025年肥料的可負擔性可能存在挑戰，但氨市場提供了一個有前景的長期增長機會，超越農業。
Industry trends are favorable, with rising production costs limiting new capacity and global demand continuing to grow, which should tighten the supply-demand balance and support prices.
行業趨勢是有利的，生產成本的上升限制了新的產能，而全球需求繼續增長，這應該會收緊供需平衡並支持價格。
According to Owen, CF, compared to other fertilizer companies, has historically outperformed in terms of total shareholder return, indicating strong capital allocation and consistent shareholder value creation.
根據Owen的說法，CF與其他肥料公司相比，在總股東回報方面歷史上表現優於其他公司，表明強大的資本配置和持續爲股東創造價值。
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The analyst notes that CF's scale, operational efficiency, and access to low-cost energy have positioned it as one of the world's lowest-cost ammonia producers, a benefit amplified by recent geopolitical disruptions. With North America driving the next phase of LNG capacity expansion, the cost advantage for North American ammonia production is expected to persist over the forecast period.
分析師指出，CF的規模、運營效率和獲得低成本能源的能力使其成爲全球最低成本的氨生產商之一，這一優勢因近期地緣政治動盪而加劇。隨着北美推動下一個液化天然氣產能擴張階段，預計北美氨生產的成本優勢將在預測期內持續。
The analyst highlights that the nitrogen supply/demand balance is expected to stay favorable in the near term, with China exports being a key variable.
分析師強調，氮供應/需求平衡預計在短期內保持有利，中國的出口是一個關鍵變量。
While ammonia is seen as essential for industrial decarbonization, the analyst acknowledges carbon capture presents the lowest risk and fastest return on investment.
雖然氨被視爲工業脫碳的重要組成部分，但分析師承認碳捕集具有最低風險和最快的投資回報。
The model includes an estimated ~$50 million quarterly EBITDA from 45Q credits starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, Owen writes.
該模型包括從2025年第四季度開始估計的約5000萬美元季度EBITDA，基於45Q信用，Owen寫道。
Overall, CF presents a unique opportunity due to its focus on the ammonia market, which offers promising long-term growth beyond traditional fertilizer uses.
總體而言，CF由於專注於氨市場，提供了獨特的機會，展現出超越傳統肥料用途的長期增長潛力。
Owen also emphasizes that CF has shown superior capital allocation compared to its peers, consistently delivering strong shareholder value throughout the cycle.
Owen還強調，CF在資本配置方面表現優於同行，始終在整個週期中提供強大的股東價值。
The analyst estimates the company to report revenues of $5.9 billion in FY24.
分析師估計該公司在2024財年報告收入爲59億。
Price Action: CF shares are trading higher by 0.62% to $90.38 at last check Thursday.
價格走勢：CF股票在週四最後一次檢查時上漲0.62%，至90.38美元。
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Photo by Ground Picture on Shutterstock.
圖片由shutterstock上的Ground Picture提供。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
