NETEASE INC(9999.HK):STRONG N-T PC;ROI-ORIENTED ASSESSMENTS TO IMPROVE RESOURCE UTILISATION EFFICIENCY
NETEASE INC(9999.HK):STRONG N-T PC;ROI-ORIENTED ASSESSMENTS TO IMPROVE RESOURCE UTILISATION EFFICIENCY
Blizzard and newly launched in-house games drive N-T PC. We expect outperformed Blizzard games (WoW and Hearthstone) and newly launched in- house "Marvel Rivals" and "Once Human" globally, especially overseas performance, will provide visible PC incremental in the near term. In addition, we expect in-house titles "Where Wind Meet" PC (set to be launched on 27 December 2024) and "Fragpunk" PC will contribute PC growth in 2025. Thus, we slightly uplift our FY2024/25E PC game revenue forecasts by 1%/ 2% to reflect the contributions of the above games.We forecast Blizzard PC games (WoW and Hearthstone), Naraka PC/ console and 4 in-house newly launched PC games will be main growth engines to drive c.40% YoY PC revenue in the following three quarters.
我們預測暴雪PC遊戲（魔獸世界和爐石傳說）、Naraka PC/主機以及4款新推出的內部PC遊戲將在接下來的三個季度成爲推動PC營業收入同比增長約40%的主要增長引擎。
Moreover, Co. is accelerating their ROI-oriented assessments globally in terms of game development and game operations to improve resource utilisation efficiency. We are confident on Co.'s core game competencies and competitive moats. Along with committed shareholder return initiatives with both buyback and dividend schemes leveraging ample cash position, maintain Top BUY and raise TP to US$115.0/ HK$181.0.
此外，公司正在全球範圍內加速以回報率爲導向的評估，以提高遊戲開發和運營的資源利用效率。我們對公司的核心遊戲能力和競爭優勢充滿信心。結合承諾的股東回報計劃，包括利用充足的現金位置進行的股票回購和分紅方案，我們維持「強烈買入」評級，並將目標價上調至115.0美元/181.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級關鍵因素
Blizzard and newly launched in-house games drive N-T PC. We expect outperformed Blizzard games (WoW and Hearthstone) and newly launched in- house "Marvel Rivals" and "Once Human" globally, especially overseas performance, will provide visible PC incremental in the near term. In addition, we expect in-house titles "Where Wind Meet" PC (set to be launched on 27 December 2024) and "Fragpunk" PC will contribute PC growth in 2025. Thus, we slightly uplift our FY2024/25E PC game revenue forecasts by 1%/ 2% to reflect the contributions of the above games.
暴雪及新推出的內部遊戲推動N-t PC。我們預計暴雪遊戲（魔獸世界和爐石傳說）和新推出的內部遊戲《漫威對決》和《人類的另一面》在全球範圍內，特別是在境外的表現，將在短期內提供可見的PC增量。此外，我們預計內部作品《風與其會》PC（計劃於2024年12月27日上線）和《Fragpunk》PC將在2025年爲PC增長做出貢獻。因此，我們將FY2024/25E PC遊戲營業收入預測上調1%/2%，以反映上述遊戲的貢獻。
More ROI-oriented assessments. We see Co. is accelerating their ROI- oriented adjustments globally in terms of both game development (projects, partners and global 1P studio organisation restructure) and game operations (game suspension, content updates, marketing and team restructure). We deem these adjustments will not impact Co.'s financials and core competencies, as well as their L-T global game vision but will improve resource utilisation efficiency.
更多以回報率爲導向的評估。我們看到公司正在全球範圍內加速以回報率爲導向的調整，包括遊戲開發（項目、合作伙伴和全球第一方工作室的重組）和遊戲運營（遊戲暫停、內容更新、市場營銷和團隊重組）。我們認爲這些調整不會對公司的財務和核心能力產生影響，也不會影響他們的長期全球遊戲願景，但會提高資源利用效率。
Thus, we largely maintain our FY2024-26E GPM and bottom line estimations unchanged.
因此，我們大體上維持FY2024-26E GPm和底線估算不變。
Key Risks for Rating
評級風險關鍵因素
Downside risks: i) weak macro and online discretionary spending recovery; ii) game regulations; iii) competition; iv) destructive investments; v) dampened partnerships; and vi) ADR delisting.
下行風險：i）宏觀經濟和在線可支配支出復甦乏力；ii）遊戲監管；iii）競爭；iv）不合理的投資；v）合作關係減弱；vi）ADR退市。
Valuation
估值
We roll over our TP to use 2025E estimates. Maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$115.0/ HK$181.0 on: i) US$90.0 on 12.0x FY2025E adj. EPADS of US$7.53; 2) US$3.0 from stake in Youdao and Cloud Music; and 3) US$22.0 from net cash (assign 20% discount on US$17bn net cash till end Sep 2024).
我們將目標價調整至2025年的預測。維持買入評級，並將目標價上調至115.0美元/181.0港元，原因如下：i) 基於2025財年調整後每股收益7.53美元的12.0倍市盈率，目標價爲90.0美元；2) 來自有道和雲音樂的3.0美元收益；3) 淨現金帶來的22.0美元（在截至2024年9月底的170億美元淨現金上折讓20%）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
