Investing in Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Three Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 104% Gain
Investing in Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Three Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 104% Gain
By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) share price is up 70% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 23% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 63% in the last year, including dividends.
通過購買指數基金,投資者可以接近市場平均回報。但如果你選對了個別股票,你可能會賺得更多。例如,金德爾摩根公司(紐交所:KMI)的股價在過去三年上漲了70%,明顯超過了約23%的市場回報(不包括分紅派息)。然而,最近的回報並沒有那麼令人印象深刻,過去一年股票的回報率僅爲63%,包括分紅派息。
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
那麼讓我們評估過去三年的基本面,看看它們是否與股東回報同向移動。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映基礎業務表現。考慮市場對公司看法變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是比較每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價的變化。
Kinder Morgan was able to grow its EPS at 14% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 19% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.
金德爾摩根在三年內每年能夠將每股收益增長14%,推動股價上漲。這一每股收益增長低於19%的股價年均增長。因此,可以合理假設市場對該業務的看法比三年前更高。看到市場在經歷幾年的增長後對股票進行「重新評估」並不罕見。
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
公司的每股收益(隨時間)如下圖所示(點擊查看確切數字)。
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kinder Morgan's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
我們喜歡內部人士在過去十二個月內買入股票。 話雖如此,大多數人認爲盈利和營業收入增長趨勢是業務更有意義的指導。 不妨看看我們關於金德爾摩根的盈利、營業收入和現金流的免費報告。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Kinder Morgan, it has a TSR of 104% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。 TSR是一種回報計算方式,考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何分紅被再投資)和任何折扣資本募集及分拆的計算價值。 可以公平地說,TSR爲支付分紅的股票提供了一個更完整的畫面。 在金德爾摩根的情況下,其在過去3年裏的TSR爲104%。 這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。 而且,毫無疑問,分紅支付在很大程度上解釋了這一差異!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
It's good to see that Kinder Morgan has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 63% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kinder Morgan better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kinder Morgan (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
看到金德爾摩根在過去十二個月中給股東帶來了63%的總股東回報,令人欣慰。 而且這包括分紅。 這比過去五年13%的年化回報要好,暗示公司最近表現更好。 鑑於股價動能依然強勁,可能值得更仔細地觀察這隻股票,以免錯過機會。 跟蹤股價長期表現總是很有趣。 但是,要更好地理解金德爾摩根,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。 比如風險。 每家公司都有風險,我們發現了金德爾摩根的3個警告信號(其中2個有些令人擔憂!)您應該了解。
Kinder Morgan is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
金德爾摩根並不是內部人士唯一購買的股票。如果你喜歡尋找不太知名的公司,這份最近有內部人士購買的成長公司免費名單,可能正合適。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了當前在美國交易所上市股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。