DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited (SGX:D01) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 31% in the last quarter. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 59% in that time. So is the recent increase sufficient to restore confidence in the stock? Not yet. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.

With the stock having lost 6.3% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, DFI Retail Group Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

It could be that the revenue decline of 5.2% per year is viewed as evidence that DFI Retail Group Holdings is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that DFI Retail Group Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think DFI Retail Group Holdings will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, DFI Retail Group Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was -52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

DFI Retail Group Holdings shareholders gained a total return of 9.8% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 9% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - DFI Retail Group Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Of course DFI Retail Group Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.