The quarterly results for The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$14b were in line with what the analysts predicted, TJX Companies surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.14 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TJX Companies from 22 analysts is for revenues of US$59.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 5.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.1% to US$4.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$59.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.60 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$129, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic TJX Companies analyst has a price target of US$148 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$82.12. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await TJX Companies shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TJX Companies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TJX Companies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.7% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like TJX Companies is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple TJX Companies analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with TJX Companies , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.