JPMorgan Bets On Natural Gas For 2025: Upgrades ConocoPhillips, Lowers 3 Energy Stocks
JPMorgan Bets On Natural Gas For 2025: Upgrades ConocoPhillips, Lowers 3 Energy Stocks
While shale oil producers have enjoyed an advantage over gas producers over the past 15 years, the situation is likely to reverse in 2025, according to JPMorgan.
儘管頁岩油生產商在過去15年中享有比燃料幣生產商更大的優勢，但根據摩根大通的預測，這種情況可能在2025年發生逆轉。
Analyst Arun Jayaram said in a note that natural gas producers are likely to benefit from three "powerful secular demand trends" in 2025:
分析師阿倫·賈亞拉姆在一份報告中表示，天然氣生產商在2025年可能會受益於三種"強勁的長期需求趨勢"：
- The build-out of significant LNG export capacity
- Rising power demand from electrification
- The switch from coal to natural gas
- 顯著的液化天然氣出口能力的建設
- 電氣化帶來的電力需求上升
- 從煤到天然氣的交換機-雲計算
Natural gas prices could remain above $3.50 per MMBtu (Metric Million British Thermal Unit) in the long term, as this price reset to a higher level will be needed to incentivize incremental supply growth from higher-cost gas basins, Jayaram stated.
賈亞拉姆指出，天然氣價格在長期內可能會保持在每MMBtu（每百萬英熱單位）超過3.50美元的水平，因爲爲了激勵高成本氣田的增量供應增長，這一價格需要重新調整到更高水平。
The Rating Changes
評級變更
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) – upgraded from Neutral to Overweight.
康菲石油（紐交所：COP） – 從中立上調至超配。
While the stock has underperformed peers year-to-date, the company is likely to be "one of the few E&Ps in our coverage that raise cash return in 2025," including $6.0 billion in share buybacks, the analyst said.
儘管該股票年初至今表現不如同行，但該公司可能是我們覆蓋範圍內"爲數不多的在2025年增加現金回報的E&P公司之一，" 包括60億的股票回購，分析師表示。
Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN) – downgraded from Overweight to Neutral.
戴文能源 corp (紐交所:DVN) – 從超配下調爲中立。
The company faces tougher comps in 2025, given its strong well productivity so far. "Another factor that supports our downgrade is the sizeable PE overhang post the Grayson Mill deal (~6% of shares outstanding)," Jayaram wrote.
鑑於其迄今爲止強勁的井產能，該公司在2025年面臨更爲嚴格的比較。"另一個支持我們下調評級的因素是格雷森米爾交易後可觀的市盈率壓制（約佔流通股的6%），" Jayaram寫道。
Check out other analyst stock ratings.
查看其他分析師的股票評級。
SM Energy Co (NYSE:SM) – downgraded from Overweight to Neutral.
sm energy corp (紐交所:SM) – 從超配下調爲中立。
The downgrade reflects a "preference for natural gas exposure" and the company's near-term cash return lagging peers," he stated.
此次下調反映了"對天然氣敞口的偏好"，以及該公司短期現金回報滯後於同行，"他說。
CNX Resources Corp (NYSE:CNX) – downgraded from Neutral to Underweight.
康索爾能源 corp (紐交所:CNX) – 從中立下調爲減持。
The stock has outperformed year-to-date and the company has "less near-term gas exposure compared to gassy peers given its robust hedge book," the analyst said.
該股票年初至今表現優於大盤，且與其他重氣行業的公司相比，該公司的"短期天然氣敞口較少，原因在於其強大的對沖書，" 分析師表示。
Price Action
股價變動
At the time of publication Thursday:
在發佈時，星期四：
- Shares of ConocoPhillips had risen by 0.58% to $104.10.
- Devon Energy's stock had declined by 0.93% to $36.14.
- SM Energy's stock had risen by 0.98% to $42.34.
- Shares of CNX Resources were down 0.21% at $38.15.
- 康菲石油的股票上漲了0.58%，達到104.10美元。
- 戴文能源的股票下跌了0.93%，至36.14美元。
- sm energy的股票上漲了0.98%，達到42.34美元。
- 康索爾能源的股票下跌了0.21%，至38.15美元。
Read More:
閱讀更多：
- OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts To Late 2026: What It Means For Markets
- OPEC+將石油產量削減延長至2026年底：這對市場的影響
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
圖像由Midjourney通過人工智能創建。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
