It is hard to get excited after looking at Carter's' (NYSE:CRI) recent performance, when its stock has declined 15% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Specifically, we decided to study Carter's' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Carter's is:

28% = US$231m ÷ US$829m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.28.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Carter's' Earnings Growth And 28% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that Carter's has a significantly high ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 13% which is quite remarkable. However, for some reason, the higher returns aren't reflected in Carter's' meagre five year net income growth average of 2.2%. This is generally not the case as when a company has a high rate of return it should usually also have a high earnings growth rate. Such a scenario is likely to take place when a company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Carter's' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 21% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Carter's''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Carter's Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (or a retention ratio of 52% over the past three years, Carter's has seen very little growth in earnings as we saw above. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Additionally, Carter's has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 62% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 21% over the same period.

Summary

In total, it does look like Carter's has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.