Today, the US authorities published an updated version of the advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing equipment rule, imposing additional restrictions on suppliers for the export of chip manufacturing technology. These regulations will become effective immediately with a delayed compliance date of December 31, 2024 for some of the changes.

The updated export control regulations contain additions to the list of restricted technologies including metrology and software. In addition, further fab locations, mainly in China, are added to the US list of restrictions. Should a similar security assessment to the one underpinning the US restrictions also be made by the Dutch authorities, exports of DUV immersion lithography systems to these specific locations could also be affected.

For 2024, we do not expect any direct material impact on our business. For 2025, we expect that the impact will fall within what was communicated at the time of our Q3 2024 earnings, namely that we expect 2025 total net sales to be between €30 billion and €35 billion and that we expect our China business (net system sales plus net service and field option sales) to be around 20% of our total net sales for that full year.

Long-term, our scenarios for demand in the semiconductor industry are not expected to be impacted by the new regulations, as these scenarios are based on the global demand for wafers rather than on any specific geographic split. We therefore also confirm potential 2030 scenarios for annual total net sales between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion as outlined during our Investor Day on November 14, 2024.

ASML is fully committed to complying with all applicable laws and regulations including export control legislation in the countries in which we operate, while we continue to develop our technology and serve our customers to the best of our ability.