Shareholders of Iris Energy Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$12.40 following its latest first-quarter results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$54m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.27 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Iris Energy's eight analysts is for revenues of US$530.1m in 2025. This reflects a huge 154% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Iris Energy is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.37 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$462.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.42 in 2025. Although revenues are expected to increase meaningfully, the analysts have acknowledged the cost of growth, given the substantial drop in EPS estimates following the latest report.

The analysts also upgraded Iris Energy's price target 9.9% to US$17.33, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Iris Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$26.00 and the most bearish at US$9.50 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Iris Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 246% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 61% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Iris Energy to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Iris Energy. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Iris Energy analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Iris Energy is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.