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The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Scotts Miracle-Gro公司報告出人意料的虧損,分析師已更新其預測
Simply Wall St ·  11/29 18:58

Last week, you might have seen that The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE:SMG) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to US$75.80 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$3.6b, in line with estimates, while Scotts Miracle-Gro reported a statutory loss of US$0.61 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

上週,您可能已經注意到紐交所上市的The Scotts Miracle-Gro公司(NYSE:SMG)向市場發佈了其年度業績。 初期反應並不樂觀,股價在過去一週下跌了2.6%,至75.80美元。營業收入爲36億美元,符合預期,而Scotts Miracle-Gro報告了每股虧損0.61美元,遠低於先前分析師預測的盈利。 根據這一結果,分析師已更新了他們的盈利模型,了解到他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化,還是一切照常。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利發佈後的法定共識預估,以了解明年可能會發生什麼。

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NYSE:SMG Earnings and Revenue Growth November 29th 2024
紐交所:SMG盈利和營收增長2024年11月29日

Following last week's earnings report, Scotts Miracle-Gro's eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.56b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Scotts Miracle-Gro is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$3.27 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.87 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

在上週的盈利報告後,Scotts Miracle-Gro的八位分析師預測2025年的營收將達到35.6億美元,與過去12個月大致相符。Scotts Miracle-Gro預計還將實現盈利,法定每股收益爲3.27美元。 在這項盈利報告之前,分析師們一直在預測2025年的營收爲35.6億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲3.87美元。 因此,在最新結果之後,情緒明顯下降,注意到新EPS預測的實質性下調。

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.0% to US$81.71, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Scotts Miracle-Gro analyst has a price target of US$100.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$70.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

也許令人驚訝的是一致性價格目標下降了8.0%,至81.71美元,分析師明顯將較低的預測收益與股價表現聯繫起來。 然而,還有另一種思考價格目標的方式,那就是查看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲各種估計的廣泛範圍可能提示對企業可能結果的多元化看法。 最樂觀的Scotts Miracle-Gro分析師設定的目標股價爲每股100.00美元,而最悲觀的則爲每股70.00美元。正如您所看到的,分析師並不完全同意股票的未來,但估值範圍仍然相當窄,這可能表明結果並非完全不可預測。

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Scotts Miracle-Gro's past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 1.8% annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% per year. Although Scotts Miracle-Gro's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

這些估算很有趣,但在比較預測時,將更寬泛的輪廓塗抹一些可能會更有用,既可以與the scotts miracle-gro過去的表現相比,也可以與同行業的同行相比。從這些估算來看,分析師們預計衰營收的年份將告一段落,鑑於平穩的預測延伸至2025年。這將是一個明顯的改善,因爲過去五年收入每年下降1.8%。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,同一行業中其他公司(有分析師覆蓋)的預測收入增長率爲每年4.6%。儘管預計the scotts miracle-gro的收入將有所改善,但似乎預計其增速仍低於整個行業。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Scotts Miracle-Gro. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Scotts Miracle-Gro's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

最大的擔憂在於,分析師已經降低了每股收益的預估,暗示了the scotts miracle-gro未來可能面臨的業務逆風。幸運的是,分析師也重申了他們的營業收入預估,表明它正在符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實表明the scotts miracle-gro的營業收入預計表現將不如整個行業。此外,分析師還下調了他們的價格預期,暗示最新消息導致對該業務內在價值的悲觀情緒增加。

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Scotts Miracle-Gro going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

話雖如此,公司業績的長期軌跡比明年更爲重要。我們對the scotts miracle-gro的預測延伸至2027年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Scotts Miracle-Gro (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

然而,在你過於興奮之前,我們發現了the scotts miracle-gro的兩個警示信號(其中一個可能很嚴重!)您應該知曉。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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