GoTo Moving Along The Right Trajectory: Maybank
GoTo Moving Along The Right Trajectory: Maybank
The house views the lending business as the future driver of GOTO, as it has a higher margin (estimates an average lending rate of 4% vs payment take-rate of about 0.5%). And forecasts an average lending book of IDR7.4t/IDR8.3t in FY25/FY26E, with an average yield assumption of 4.0%/4.0%, translating to lending revenue of IDR3.6t/IDR4.0t in FY25/FY26E (vs management's target of about IDR8t-9t lending book by end-9M25). Maybank IB thinks GTF is a profitable business and is projecting operating profits of IDR311b/IDR551b in FY25/26E. However, it still expects operating loss at a consolidated level, mainly as it anticipates corporate costs of about IDR1.9t/IDR1.8t in FY25/FY26E.
Maybank IB believes GoTo Gojek Tokopedia is moving along in the right trajectory and has raised the group's target price to IDR105 from IDR95 keeping the Buy call
馬來亞銀行國際投資銀行認爲GoTo Gojek Tokopedia正朝着正確的軌道發展，並將集團的目標價從IDR95上調至IDR105，繼續建議買入
9M24 revenue beat forecast due to the stronger-than-expected ODS segment and expansion into the lending business, which has a higher take-rate than ewallet/payments. The house is revising the FY25/26 revenue forecasts by 17%/15%, and expects GoTo's operating losses to narrow. The house thinks GoTo's cash balance of about IDR21.9t in 9M24 can support its operations.
ODS: expanding with improving profitability 9M24 ODS net revenue rose 82% YoY to IDR7.9t (achieved 83% of old forecast of IDR9.5t). Maybank IB expects momentum to continue and project ODS GTV at IDR62t/IDR69t/IDR74t, up by 14%/10%/8% YoY in FY24/25/26E.
9M24營業收入超過預期，主要是由於強於預期的ODS業務和擴展到借貸業務，其收費比電子錢包/支付更高。投行正在將FY25/26年的營業收入預測調高17%/15%，並預計GoTo的營運虧損會收窄。投行認爲GoTo在9M24擁有約IDR21.9萬億的現金儲備可以支持其業務。
ODS業務：正在擴大並改善盈利能力，9M24年ODS淨營業收入同比上升82%，達到IDR7.9萬億（實現了IDR9.5t的83%新預測）。馬來亞銀行國際投資銀行預計這種勢頭將持續下去，並將ODS GTV預計爲在FY24/25/26E年份分別爲IDR62t/IDR69t/IDR74萬億，同比增長14%/10%/8%。
Meanwhile, the investment bank expects a gross take-rate of 22% in FY24-26E and anticipates a net take-rate of 17.3% in FY25/26E (vs 17.2% in FY24E) – translating to net revenue of IDR10.7t/IDR11.9t/IDR12.8t in FY24/25/26E. It also expects ODS to be profitable, projecting operating profits of IDR342b/IDR592b in FY25/26E (vs UDR79b loss in FY24E). However, it is
subject to cost efficiency and marketing (related to competition).
與此同時，投資銀行預計FY24-26E年間的毛收費率爲22%，並預計FY25/26E的淨收費率爲17.3%（與FY24E的17.2%相比） - 這意味着FY24/25/26E的淨營業收入預計爲IDR10.7t/IDR11.9t/IDR12.8萬億。它還預計ODS將盈利，並在FY25/26E年份預計營業利潤爲IDR342b/IDR5920億（與FY24E的IDR790億虧損相比）。但是，這要取決於成本效率和市場營銷（與競爭有關）。
受到成本效率和營銷（與競爭有關）的影響。
The house views the lending business as the future driver of GOTO, as it has a higher margin (estimates an average lending rate of 4% vs payment take-rate of about 0.5%). And forecasts an average lending book of IDR7.4t/IDR8.3t in FY25/FY26E, with an average yield assumption of 4.0%/4.0%, translating to lending revenue of IDR3.6t/IDR4.0t in FY25/FY26E (vs management's target of about IDR8t-9t lending book by end-9M25). Maybank IB thinks GTF is a profitable business and is projecting operating profits of IDR311b/IDR551b in FY25/26E. However, it still expects operating loss at a consolidated level, mainly as it anticipates corporate costs of about IDR1.9t/IDR1.8t in FY25/FY26E.
投行認爲借貸業務是GOTO未來的驅動力，因爲其利潤更高（預計平均利率爲4%，而支付收費率約爲0.5%）。並預測FY25/FY26E的平均借貸額爲IDR7.4t/IDR8.3萬億，使用平均收益率假設爲4.0%/4.0%，可將借貸收入翻譯爲FY25/FY26E年份的IDR3.6t/IDR4萬億（與管理層末9M25預計約IDR8萬億的借貸額不符）。馬來亞銀行國際投資銀行認爲GTF是一項有利可圖的業務，並在FY25/26E年份預計營業利潤爲IDR311b/IDR5510億。但是，它仍然預計在整體層面上會出現營運虧損，主要是因爲預計FY25/FY26E年份的企業成本約爲IDR1.9t/IDR1.8萬億。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
