AAC TECH(2018.HK):PRODUCT UPGRADES AND MARGIN EXPANSION TO CONTINUE; REITERATE BUY
AAC TECH(2018.HK):PRODUCT UPGRADES AND MARGIN EXPANSION TO CONTINUE; REITERATE BUY
Our FY24-26E EPS forecasts are 5-9% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrades, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 21.8x/17.2x FY24/25E P/E.We hosted AAC Tech 4Q24 outlook investor call yesterday (28 Nov). Mgmt. is positive on continued spec upgrade in smartphone acoustics/optics/haptics in 2H24E and expects mild smartphone demand recovery to extend into FY25E. Mgmt. also reiterated FY24E guidance of 15% YoY revenue growth (exclu. PSS), with GPM HoH expansion in 2H24E. By segment, mgmt. shared the latest updates: 1) Optics: high-end HLS mix to improve with higher OIS/periscope HCM shipment to Android customers, WLG order wins to boost sales upside into FY25/26E. 2) Acoustics: high-end order wins with multiple major customers. 3) Haptics/casing /hinges: continued spec upgrades on light-weighted designs and foldable phone penetration. 4) Heat dispassion: material innovation and AI smartphone upgrade demand. Overall, we lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrade trends, better margin recovery and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26E. Our new TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. Near-term catalysts include key customer product launches, spec upgrades and GPM expansion.
我們於昨日（11月28日）舉辦了瑞聲科技2024年第四季度展望投資者電話會議。管理層積極看漲智能手機聲學/光學/觸覺規格升級將持續提升，並預計輕微的智能手機需求復甦將延續至2025財年。管理層還重申了2024財年（不包括PSS）15%的年同比營業收入增長的指引，並預計2024年第二個半年GPm環比擴張。按業務板塊劃分，管理層分享了最新的更新：1）光學：高端HLS混合將隨着更高的OIS/望遠鏡HCm出貨量向安卓客戶提高，獲得WLG訂單將提升銷售額，進入2025/26財年。2）聲學：與多個重要客戶獲得高端訂單。3）觸覺/外殼/鉸鏈：針對輕量化設計和可摺疊手機普及持續規格升級。4）散熱：材料創新和人工智能智能手機升級需求。總體而言，我們將我們的2024-2026年EPS預測上調了6-8%，以反映強勁的產品升級趨勢、更好的利潤率恢復和2025/26財年的人工智能規格升級。我們的新目標價爲40.83港元，暗示2025財年P/E爲19.6倍。短期催化劑包括關鍵客戶產品發佈、規格升級和GPm擴張。
Spec upgrades and better margins across all segments in 2H24E. Mgmt. stated that AAC secured order wins in acoustic/haptics/optics/casing products in Apple/Android's latest flagship models in 2H24E, which will boost margins due to better spec and higher supply share. In particular, mgmt. maintained positive view on GPM expansion for both plastic lens and HCM in 2H24E, and breakeven target for optics biz is on track in 4Q24E. AAC's WLG business also secured order wins with customers from both smartphone and automotive clients, targeting 10kk unit shipment in FY25E.
2024年第二個半年各板塊都實現了規格升級和更好的利潤率。管理層表示，瑞聲在2024年第二個半年的聲學/觸覺/光學/外殼產品中獲得了蘋果/安卓最新旗艦機型的訂單，這將由於更高的規格和更高的供應份額而提升利潤率。特別是，管理層對2024年第二個半年塑料透鏡和HCm的GPm擴張表現持續看漲，並且光學業務的收支平衡目標在2024年第四季度達成。瑞聲的WLG業務還在智能手機和汽車客戶中贏得了訂單，並計劃在2025財年出貨1000萬套。
FY24E/2025 outlook: spec migration for iPhone 17 and Android AI phone. Mgmt. is confident that sales momentum and margin expansion will sustain into FY25/26E, mainly driven by 1) share gains in optics HLS/HCM/WLG with GPM expansion, 2) spec upgrade (acoustics/haptics/heat//optics) for next-gen Apple/Android AI smartphones, 3) sales synergy with PSS auto acoustics. Overall, we expect AAC's earnings to grow 138%/27% YoY in FY24/25E.
2024/2025財年展望：iPhone 17和安卓人工智能手機的規格遷移。管理層確信銷售動力和利潤擴張將持續至2025/26財年，主要受到以下因素的推動：1）光學HLS/HCM/WLG份額在GPm擴張方面的增長，2）下一代蘋果/安卓人工智能智能手機的規格升級（聲學/觸覺/散熱/光學），3）與PSS汽車聲學的銷售協同效應。總體而言，我們預計瑞聲的收入在2024/25財年將年同比增長138%/27%。
Our FY24-26E EPS forecasts are 5-9% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We lift our FY24-26E EPS forecasts by 6-8% to reflect strong product upgrades, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into FY25/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$40.83 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 21.8x/17.2x FY24/25E P/E.
我們對FY24-26E每股收益的預測高出共識5-9％；維持買入。我們將FY24-26E每股收益預測上調6-8％，以反映強勁的產品升級，更好的利潤率配置和人工智能規格升級進入FY25/26。我們基於SOTP的新目標價格爲40.83港元，意味着19.6倍FY25E市盈率。該股目前交易於21.8倍/17.2倍FY24/25E市盈率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
