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Is Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) A Risky Investment?

Is Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) A Risky Investment?

Cigna集團(紐交所:CI)是否是一個風險投資?
Simply Wall St ·  11/28 19:23

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄對此毫不隱瞞,他表示'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。'當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務超載可能導致滅亡。與許多其他公司一樣,信諾(紐交所:CI)使用債務。但股東們是否應該擔心它的債務使用呢?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

當企業無法輕鬆履行債務或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本時,債務和其他負債對企業構成風險。在最糟糕的情況下,如果企業無法償還債務,就會破產。雖然這不太常見,但我們經常看到負債企業因債權人迫使它們以低價籌集資本而永久稀釋股東權益。當然,許多公司使用債務來進行增長,而沒有任何負面後果。當我們考慮一家公司的債務風險時,我們首先看現金和債務總額。

What Is Cigna Group's Debt?

信諾集團的債務是什麼?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Cigna Group had debt of US$33.8b, up from US$31.0b in one year. However, it also had US$6.75b in cash, and so its net debt is US$27.1b.

以下圖片顯示,在2024年9月,信諾集團的債務爲338億美元,比一年前的310億美元增加。然而,它也擁有67.5億美元的現金,因此其淨債務爲271億美元。

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NYSE:CI Debt to Equity History November 28th 2024
紐交所:CI資產負債歷史,2024年11月28日

How Strong Is Cigna Group's Balance Sheet?

信諾集團的資產負債表有多堅實?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Cigna Group had liabilities of US$57.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$58.3b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$6.75b and US$27.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$80.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根據最近披露的資產負債表,信諾集團有571億美元的負債在12個月內到期,583億美元的負債超過12個月到期。另一方面,它有67.5億美元的現金和278億美元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額爲807億美元,超過了其現金和短期應收賬款的總和。

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$93.2b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Cigna Group's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

相對於其市值達932億美元,這個赤字在相當於其非常顯著的市值之下,這確實表明股東應該密切關注信諾集團的債務使用情況。如果其債權人要求其加強資產負債表,股東很可能面臨嚴重稀釋。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們使用兩個主要的比率來告訴我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),而第二個是其利潤前利息和稅(EBIT)覆蓋其利息費用的次數(或其利息覆蓋率,簡稱)。因此,我們考慮與折舊和攤銷費用相關的盈利以及沒有相關費用的盈利相對於債務水平。

Cigna Group's debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.6 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Unfortunately, Cigna Group's EBIT flopped 18% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Cigna Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

信諾集團的債務是其EBITDA的3.2倍,其EBIT可覆蓋利息支出的倍數爲4.6倍。這表明儘管債務水平顯著,但我們停在稱其有問題之前。不幸的是,信諾集團的EBIT在過去四個季度下跌了18%。如果利潤繼續以這個速度下降,那麼處理債務將會比帶着三個5萬億以下的孩子去一家高級餐廳困難得多。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上學到了很多關於債務的情況。但更重要的是,未來的盈利將決定信諾集團保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師盈利預測的這份免費報告非常有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Cigna Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但債權人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,值得檢查EBIT中多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,信諾集團實際上產生的自由現金流比EBIT更多。這種強勁的現金轉化讓我們像在Daft Punk音樂會上舞曲響起時的人群一樣興奮。

Our View

我們的觀點

Cigna Group's EBIT growth rate and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We should also note that Healthcare industry companies like Cigna Group commonly do use debt without problems. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Cigna Group is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Cigna Group (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

信諾集團的EBIt增長率和總負債水平確實使其負重在我們看來。但其將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的能力卻講述了一個完全不同的故事,並表明其具有一定的韌性。我們還應該注意,像信諾集團這樣的醫療保健行業公司通常會在沒有問題的情況下使用債務。當我們考慮所有討論的因素時,我們認爲信諾集團正在通過其債務使用承擔一些風險。雖然這種債務可以提高回報,但我們認爲公司現在的槓桿已足夠高。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到的關於債務的大部分信息。但最終,每家公司都可能承擔存在於資產負債表以外的風險。我們已經找到了信諾集團的3個警示信號(至少其中一個可能很嚴重),了解它們應該成爲你的投資過程的一部分。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切塵埃落定時,有時更容易專注於那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費查看零淨債務的成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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